【作者】 匡乐红；

【导师】 刘宝琛； 徐林荣；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 区域暴雨泥石流灾害是山区常见的地质灾害之一，具有群发性、同时性、突发性和成灾大等特点，严重影响山区经济建设的发展。作为山区泥石流灾害防灾减灾工作中一项非常重要的非工程性措施，区域暴雨泥石流预测预报越来越引起人们的重视。其研究主要分为暴雨泥石流形成机理分析、空间预测、以及时间预报等三个部分，而对此进行系统研究的特别少。同时，由于暴雨泥石流灾害的复杂性，目前取得的研究成果还远不能满足山区防灾减灾工作的要求。论文针对目前区域暴雨泥石流预测预报方法在实践应用中存在的局限性，基于已有的研究成果，对暴雨泥石流灾害的形成机理、危险度区划、预报预警、以及基于GIS的预测预报系统集成等进行了全面系统的深入研究，取得了一些创新性成果。1、在形成机理研究方面，根据土体起动到暴雨泥石流形成的动力条件不同，对水动力模式和土动力模式暴雨泥石流的形成机理进行了探讨：①依据降雨入渗过程的变化，将水动力模式暴雨泥石流的形成过程划分为三个阶段，分析了各阶段斜坡松散土体的受力特性，得到了泥石流起动时的临界平均径流深度理论公式；②分析了土动力模式暴雨泥石流的形成过程，得出了土体液化和流动的主要影响因素。从而，为实现基于形成机理和起动条件的暴雨泥石流预测预报奠定了一定的理论基础。2、在危险度区划(空间预测)研究方面，对暴雨泥石流危险度区划指标的选取、规范化处理、权重的确定、以及区划模型的建立等进行了系统研究：①基于粗糙集原理，提出了一种新的区划指标选取方法，基本解决了所选指标代表性和全面性难以兼顾的问题；②利用模糊数学理论，提出了直线型、折线型和曲线型三种规范化处理方法，使得暴雨泥石流危险度区划指标规范化处理更合理；③运用粗糙集原理，提出了指标相对重要度的计算公式，对传统AHP法进行了改进，使构造的判断矩阵具有客观性，避免了人为因素的影响；并提出了一种综合分析方法选取指标主、客观权重的偏好系数，将专家判断和客观分析相结合综合考虑了各指标的主、客观成分，使权重的确定更合理；④基于上述研究，运用可拓方法建立了泥石流危险度区划模型，提出了一种普适性强、信息数据处理易于操作的暴雨泥石流危险度区划方法。3、在预报预警(时间预报)研究方面，运用非线性理论和概率论，建立了区域暴雨泥石流的长、中、短期预报预警模型：①基于残差修正理论，应用残差修正的GM(1，1)预测模型对区域暴雨泥石流活动趋势进行长期预测，有利于指导区域暴雨泥石流的防治规划；②基于模糊理论、可拓方法和Bayes统计推断原理，提出了一种新的区域暴雨泥石流中期预报方法，充分考虑了区域暴雨泥石流近期险情的一般统计特性和区域性特征，能较全面地反映区域暴雨泥石流近期险情的实际情况，有利于指导应急预案各项准备工作的进行；③运用模糊数学及概率分析将区域暴雨泥石流的暴发问题转化为松散土体在暴雨条件下的失稳概率，提出了一种新的区域暴雨泥石流短期预报方法，有利于加强政府部门对区域暴雨泥石流灾害进行群测群防的针对性。4、在预测预报系统集成研究方面，根据区域暴雨泥石流预测预报系统的功能目标，探讨了基于GIS的区域暴雨泥石流灾害预测预报系统开发的技术路线、系统结构设计和数据库设计等问题；提出了系统数据库的建库技术，并构建了区域暴雨泥石流预测预报系统属性数据库的部分数据表；采用基于OLE技术对MapInfo与VB集成的方式，实现了区域暴雨泥石流灾害预测预报成果的直观可视化表达，为泥石流灾害信息管理和建立高效的防灾减灾决策管理体系提供了技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional rainstorm-induced debris flow hazard is one of common geology hazards which are of mass occurrence, simultaneity, abruptness, and large-scale thus seriously impedes the economic development of mountainous area. As one of contingent non-engineering cautions against it, the forecast of regional rainstorm-induced debris flow has drawn more and more people’s attention. Its research was divided into three parts: analyzing the formation mechanism, the spatial forecast, and the time forecast. But the systemic research was few. And due to the complexity of regional rainstorm-induced debris flow hazard, current researches in this field are far from requirements of guarding against or reducing hazard in mountainous area. Targeted on the limits of forecasting regional rainstorm-induced debris flow, and while based on the researches of predecessors, deeply research in this dissertation are the formation mechanism of rainstorm-induced debris flow, approach to risk degree zoning, forecast and pre,warning models and such system grounded on GIS, some innovative research fruits are achieved in the following aspects.1. According to different dynamic conditions ranging from movement of soil body to formation of rainstorm-induced debris flow, the formation mechanism of both hydrodynamic and soil dynamic kinds of rainstorm-induced debris flow are discussed:①According to variation of rainfall penetration, hydrodynamic kind of rainstorm-induced debris flow is divided into three phases, and characteristic of loose soil of landslides in each period are analyzed, As a result, a theoretical formula of average critical runoff depth when debris flow start is gained.②The formation process of soil dynamic debris flow are analyzed, it come out with major effect factor of liquefaction and mobile of the soil body: Intensification of soil body disturbance, increase of temperature of soil grain, bring of excess pore water pressure. Thus lays some good theoretic foundation for forecast debris flow.2. Systematic study is conducted on selection, normalization, weight of zoning indexes, and establishment of rainstorm-induced debris flow risk zoning:①Based on rough set theory, a new selection method on zoning indexes is put forward, the issue of representation and comprehensive are settled, which makes zoning indexes selecting more reasonable.②Based on fuzzy theory, the linear and curve standardized handling method are established, it would be more reasonable and more realistic for the standardized handling.③Based on rough set theory, the calculating formula of relative significance of the zoning indexes is established, the traditional AHP is improved, which makes the constructed matrix objective and avoids the human factor influence. And the combination weight method is proposed for selecting the value of the favorable coefficient of the subjective and objective weight of the evaluation indexes. The objective and subjective aspects of indexes are taken into account in this method, and a relatively reasonable weight value may be obtained by combining the expert judgment and the objective analysis.④To use extension method to establish risk degree zoning of debris flow of various norms, and provide a universally applicable and workable zoning method.3. With regard to different kind of forecast of rainstorm-induced debris flow, forecast and pre-warning of debris flow is made to combine meteorological products with non-linear theory and probability theory, and establish long, medium and short-term forecast and pre-warning of rainstorm-induced debris flow:①According to residual error correction, residual error correction GM(1,1) forecast model is used to make long-term forecast of region rainstorm-induced debris flow in order to guide the prevention and planning of debris flow.②Based on fuzzy theory, extension method and Bayes statistics theory, a new medium-term forecast method of regional rainstorm-induced debris is brought out to guide all preparatory work of emergency. This method gives full consideration to general statistical and regional properties of recent dangerous situations of regional rainstorm-induced debris flow. This new method can comprehensively reflect the real situation of regional debris flow.③To turn abruptness of rainstorm-induced debris flow into question of instability probability of loose soil body under torrential rainfall condition, and proposed is a new method of short-term forecast of regional debris flow so as to help government to strengthen group forecast and prevention of debris flow.4. In light of function and target of forecast and pre-waming system of regional rainstorm-induced debris flow, deeply are discussed debris technological circuit, function and structure design, database design etc. of debris flow forecast and pre-waming system based on GIS, put forward is the technology of establishing database, and some database is created. Visualized is forecast and pre-waming result of debris flow hazard by MapInfo and VB method grounded on OLE, thus provide technological support for information management of debris flow disaster prevention and decrease policy system.更多还原