【作者】 陈金国；

【导师】 朱金福；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 煤炭是我国现阶段的主要能源,煤炭行业对我国社会和经济的发展有着十分重要的影响。瓦斯是煤炭生产过程的伴生物,也是影响煤炭行业安全生产的突出因素。论文针对我国现阶段煤矿瓦斯防治中急需解决的关键管理问题,以管理科学和人工智能为研究工具,开展了瓦斯涌出量预测、瓦斯涌出后的排放管理、瓦斯危机发生时逃逸路径选择、矿工安全技能开发提升、煤矿安全文化保障等方面的研究工作,以进一步提高瓦斯安全管理的可靠性。论文在分析瓦斯涌出量影响因素的基础上,对瓦斯涌出量预测方法进行了研究。从煤矿生产工作面获得的瓦斯涌出量历史数据是几十种因素对瓦斯涌出量综合影响的结果,因而能比较准确反映瓦斯涌出量与各种状态参数之间存在的对应关系。因此,论文以瓦斯涌出量历史数据为基础形成瓦斯涌出量信息表,利用具有高度非线性和很强学习功能的多层神经网络来建立瓦斯涌出量预测模型。论文还偿试将混沌时间序列分析法应用于瓦斯历史数据的重构。论文研究了瓦斯排放过程的责任管理方法问题。瓦斯事故主要发生在从煤体涌出后的排放过程管理之中,管理责任缺失是主要诱发因素。因此,面向瓦斯排放过程,论文提出了基于全员参与的安全责任管理思想和管理原理,建立了以煤炭生产流程为载体的瓦斯安全责任链管理模型,并设计了瓦斯安全管理责任链的责任对象、责任单元、责任结构关系、责任内容等要素,研究了安全责任链在煤矿瓦斯管理过程中的运行模式。论文从危机管理的层面,对瓦斯灾害发生时的矿工逃逸路径问题进行了研究。在分析逃逸路径选择与巷道宽度、巷道高度、巷道坡度、巷道内风门设施等因素之间影响关系的基础上,提出了以巷道当量长度为优化目标的瓦斯危机发生时矿工逃逸路径优化模型。论文还研究了逃逸路径优化模型的求解策略,形成了瓦斯危机逃逸路径的科学确定方法。论文研究了面向瓦斯安全管理的矿工安全技能提升的实现策略。在分析矿工学习状况的基础上,提出了开发矿工学习力的论点。根据对矿工学习障碍的分析,得出了构成矿工学习力的知识获取动力、知识获取能力、知识内化能力、知识外化能力四要素。论文研究了矿工学习力模型,探讨了提升矿工学习力的方法。论文还借助层次分析法建立了矿工学习力评价模式。论文对煤矿安全文化建设问题进行了研究。论文以平衡计分卡为分析工具,制订了煤矿安全发展战略,并从煤矿的安全战略出发,提出了建设煤矿学习型安全文化的思想,建立了煤矿学习型安全文化模型。论文对安全核心理念、安全文化保障系统、安全文化约束条件及其运行方式等问题进行了研究。论文还针对安全文化难以定量分析的问题,提出了基于改进平衡计分卡的学习型安全文化评价方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coal is the principal energy in the industry production in our country, and the industry of mining technology has made the extremely important influence to the de-velopment of our country’s society and economics. The gas is the derivative in the process of coal production, also is the important factor that affects the safety during the production procedure. The research work related to the gas disaster has been therefore the extremely important significance for constructing the harmonious society, and maintaining the production safety of the coal. The dissertation makes research on the predicting method of gas and prevention of gas process management which are related to the gas disaster, based on management science and artificial intelligence.Based on the analysis of the mechanism of gas production and some influence factors of gas output, the dissertation studied some predict methods of gas out-put.Considered to the gas output history data from coal mine production can objec-tively response the mutual relationship between gas output and its influence factors, the dissertation established the forecast model to solve gas output’s predict problem based on the output history data. The paper through constructing information-tables of gas output and neural network which has self-learning capability to establish the fore-cast model of gas output, and attempted to study gas output by analyzing chaotic time series methods, and discussed the reconstruction question in the phase plane to the his-tory data of gas output. The research work and the preliminary application indicated that the forecast method based on the gas output data has the certain superiority.Through analyzing gas migration rule, the accident cause, management system, and management flow foundation, studying exist problems in the gas management, the paper proposed the spirits of safety responsibility management and the management principle, thus established safety responsibility chain management model that suited in the gas process control, and discussed responsibility object , the responsibility unit , the responsibility structure relationship ,the responsibility content in the safety control re-sponsibility chain.. Responsibility chain management mode that suited gas process control obtained the preliminary application in the coal mine gas management practical work.The paper studied the problems about personnel escaping way when the gas disas-ter happened .Through analyzing the influence relationship among selective escaping way and the weight of tunnel, the height of tunnel, the slope of tunnel, throttle facility in the tunnel, the paper proposed the optimal model of personnel escaping way when the gas disaster happened through taking the optimal goal as the equivalent length of tunnel. The paper studied the optimal model’s solution strategy of personnel escaping way using the marking method .Based on analyzing miners’quality, miners’studies to safeguard function of the gas safety management , the paper discussed four essential factors: the power of gain-ing knowledge, the ability of gaining knowledge, the ability of internalizing knowledge, the ability of out-initializing knowledge ,which constituted miners’learning ability.The paper studied miners’learning ability function model, designed the methods of promoting miners’learning ability. The paper also established diagnosis pattern of miners’learning ability by hierarchy analytic method. The above research work ob-tained the preliminary application in the actual supervisory work of the coal mine.The paper finally studied the problems about coal mine’s security cultural recon-struction. Faced to the existence questions in the traditional security culture, with the aid of the management theories in the study organization, the paper proposed the spirits of constructing study security culture of coal mine and studied its security culture model. The paper studied the security core idea, the security culture safeguard system, security culture constraint condition and its movement way. The paper also proposed study security culture assessment method based on the balance idea branch customs station. The paper obtained the application in the coal mine security cultural recon-struction aspect research results in the coal mine production practice.更多还原