【作者】 张智峰；

【导师】 王爱俭；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪70年代以来,在经济全球化和自由化浪潮的推动下,虚拟经济呈现出前所未有的蓬勃发展之势。随着这种经济结构的转变,虚拟资产在经济发展过程中越来越居于主导地位,虚拟资产的迅速扩张导致虚拟经济规模远远超过实体经济,虚拟经济与实体经济呈现非协调发展。这一现象引起了理论界和实业界的极大关注。本文关于虚拟经济与实体经济非协调发展的研究正是基于这一历史背景而展开的。纵观世界经济的发展史,我们可以看出,虚拟经济与实体经济的非协调发展增加了经济体系的不稳定性与风险,其对宏观经济运行所产生的负面影响不容忽视。这从20世纪30年代的大萧条,到日本90年代的泡沫经济,再到上世纪末发生在东亚、俄罗斯甚至拉丁美洲的经济危机,我们便可见一斑。从全球经济的发展现状来看,虚拟经济与实体经济的非协调发展问题正日益突出。近年来,我国房地产市场与实体经济也呈现出明显的非协调发展,给宏观经济运行和居民生活带来了巨大的影响。笔者认为,虚拟经济的波动性是虚拟经济与实体经济非协调发展的内在基础;虚拟经济与实体经济的非协调发展是由于两大部门收益率差异导致的货币结构扭曲而引起的,收益率差异越大,则货币扭曲程度就越严重,从而虚拟经济与实体经济的非协调发展就会越发明显。而虚拟经济与实体经济非协调发展的典型表现就是资产泡沫。本文首先对虚拟经济的内涵进行了界定,在准确把握虚拟经济内涵的基础上,通过构建虚拟经济与实体经济关系模型对二者的协调关系进行了分析。之后,对虚拟经济与实体经济非协调发展的内在基础和机理进行了论述。在此基础上,对虚拟经济与实体经济的非协调发展进行了实证研究,最后探讨了虚拟经济与实体经济非协调发展下的政府干预。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1970s, under the impetus of economic globalization and liberalization tide, fictitious economy has shown an unprecedented trend of flourishing. With such structural changes in the economy, fictitious assets increasingly dominate in the process of economy development. The rapid expansion of fictitious assets leads to far more size of fictitious economy than real economy. Incoordination is shown between fictitious economy and real economy. This phenomenon has aroused great concern of theoretical and industrial circles. This paper on the study of incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy is just based on this historical background.Looking at the development history of world economy, we can see that the incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy increases the volatility and risk of economy system, the negative impact on the macroeconomic operation should not be overlooked. From great depression in the 1930s, to Japanese bubble economy in the 1990s, then to the economic crises occurred in East Asia, Russia and Latin America in the end of the last century, we can see something. From the development of global economy, the problem of incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming increasingly prominent. In recent years, the incoordination between real estate market and real economy is obvious in China. It brings huge influence to macro economy and residents’life. The author believes that the volatility of fictitious economy is the inherent basis of incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy. The incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy is caused by monetary structure distortion which the yield diffenrence between two sectors leads to. The greater the yield difference, the more serious the degree of monetary structure distortion, thus the incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy is more obvious. The typification of incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy is asset bubble.This paper first defines fictitious economy, on the basis of accurately grasping the connotation of fictitious economy, analyzes the coordination relation between two by building the model of coordination relation between fictitious economy and real economy. After this, discusses the inherent basis and mechanism of incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy. On this basis, empirically studies the incoordination between fictitious economy and real economy. At last, probes into the government intervention under the condition of incoordination of fictitious economy and real economy.更多还原