【作者】 王学凤；

【导师】 王忠静；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水利工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 干旱区流域生态环境问题是表层地球环境脆弱性的一个具体表现,涉及到水循环系统、生态环境系统和社会经济系统相互作用的流域复杂系统演化问题。流域系统的演化取决于实际的水资源分布状态,本文试图从水资源分配理论着手,研究如何在制定水权制度的同时,预测实际水资源分配、社会经济和生态环境效应,预见流域演化方向,实现对流域系统的宏观调控。借助势能的一般概念,本文提出了水资源势能概念,它包括水资源流动性的地理势能、水资源竞争性的效率势能和水资源公共性的制度势能。应用势能理论的基本规律解释水资源分配规律,提出水资源分配理论。根据水资源流动特性,推导水资源分配基本方程。根据地理势能、效率势能和制度势能所发挥的作用,结合水资源在社会经济系统和生态环境系统中的消耗比例,以及社会经济系统中农业和工业水资源分配增长比例,划分了水资源分配的生态安全、生态临界-农业增长、生态临界-工业增长、生态破坏-农业增长、生态破坏-工业增长和生态恢复等6个阶段,并分析了2000年全国71个二级流域水资源的分配状态。以制度势能为基础,建立了水资源使用权分配多人多准则协商模型。将水资源分配理论和水资源使用权分配协商模型结合,采用系统动力学方法建立集水资源自然循环和人工调控、社会经济系统自由竞争和有限发展为一体的流域系统演化模型,实现了对水资源在不同条件下区域分配规律的描述,可以预测流域系统的演化趋势。应用流域演化模型于石羊河流域,分析水资源分配不同情景下的流域演化方向及社会经济发展趋势,结果表明:实施水资源使用权制度对石羊河流域上游地域经济社会发展将产生一定制约,对下游区域将产生积极作用;总体上实施水资源使用权制度比不实施水资源使用权制度要好,越早实施水资源使用权制度越好,有利于全流域的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The eco-environmental problem in arid region is a representative of global environment vulnerability, which is related to the intricate basin evolution involved in the interaction between water cycle, eco-environment and economy. The dissertation starts with water allocation theory and study on when carrying out water rights system, how to forecast the impact of actual water allocation on the society, economy and eco-environment and on how to foresee the basin evolution orientation.The water resources potential energy is presented made up of geographic, efficient and institutional potential energy. The water allocation rule is explained using potential energy theory; thus, the water allocation theory is brought forward. The basic equation of water allocation is derived from flow characteristic.According to water consumption ratio in socio-economic and ecological environment and the allocation in agriculture and industry, the water allocation stage is divided into Ecological-Safe Stage, Ecological Limit-Agriculture Increase Stage, Ecological Limit-Industry Increase Stage, Ecological Destroy-Agriculture Increase Stage, Ecological Destroy-Industry Increase Stage and Ecological Rehabilitation Stage.Based on the institutional potential energy, the negotiating model on water rights allocation is established. The negotiating model on water rights allocation is integrated into water allocation theory to establish the basin evolution model. The basin evolution model can realize the description of water allocation under different condition and forecast the basin evolution orientation.The basin evolution model is used in Shiyang River basin to forecast the socio-economic development and the results show: water allocation system plays a negative role in the upper reaches and impacts positively on the lower reaches and water rights system should be implemented as early as possible so as to realize the sustainable development.更多还原