【作者】 马颖；

【导师】 谢科范；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化的推进以及竞争的日趋白热化，为了更好地应对日益恶劣的竞争环境，提升企业自身的核心竞争力成为决定其生死存亡的关键因素。企业的核心竞争力不仅体现在特定的技术和诀窍上，更体现在企业对整个渠道的有效培育、开发和管理方面。特别是当今，企业之间的竞争已不再是单一的个体间竞争，而是处于一种网络竞争状态，此时，渠道管理便成为企业的生命线。只有保持营销渠道健康、有效的运行，才能保证企业可持续发展。由于当前我国经济社会发展正处于转型期，企业经营面临的环境不确定性因素增多，使企业营销风险易发生性加大。因此，科学的营销渠道风险管理成为企业营销成功的关键。而营销渠道作为企业营销的外部战略资源，其具有的外部性、复杂性等特点，增加了渠道风险管理的难度。因此，研究营销渠道风险管理理论，为企业营销实践提供指导，构成了本研究的重要目的和意义。本文立足实际，对营销渠道风险管理理论进行了探讨，其主要内容如下：(1)分析了营销渠道风险管理的理论基础。通过对渠道管理理论的分析，结合企业风险、营销风险的相关研究，探讨了营销渠道风险的概念、特征、类型和影响因素。同时，运用生命周期理论，对营销渠道进了生命周期划分，并比较了不同生命阶段营销渠道风险因素的影响；运用系统论，分析了营销渠道系统的复杂性与脆弱性，辨析了营销渠道复杂系统脆弱性与渠道效率的关系；分析了营销渠道中的各种风险链，并运用马尔可夫模型探讨了渠道风险的传递原理。(2)运用营销渠道风险管理的基本理论，对营销渠道客户流失风险、信用风险、物流风险的概念、类型、产生原因、传递原理等分别做了进一步的探讨。(3)建立营销渠道风险预警管理体系。从系统角度出发，分析了营销渠道风险预警管理的基本原理、辨析了体系各部分的功能及运行流程，建立了营销渠道风险指标评价系统。(4)基于预警管理理论，提出营销渠道风险防范机制。以营销渠道风险的防范思路为依据，探讨了营销渠道风险的防范路径，提出了基于预警体系的营销渠道风险防范措施，以期为企业营销渠道的顺利运转奠定基础。(5)对营销渠道风险进行了实证研究。运用调查问卷、专家访谈等方法，通过对企业实践调查以及统计分析，为理论研究提供了实证支撑。本文的理论基础是营销管理、风险管理、预警管理、博弈论和系统论。论文采用定性与定量相结合、理论与实证相结合的方法，运用层次分析模型、马尔可夫链模型、网络拓扑结构、决策树模型、博弈论模型、微分方程模型、系统动力学模型、神经网络模型等建模工具进行了数量分析。鉴于营销环境的复杂性及动态性，本研究还有一些问题留待今后做进一步探究。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic globalization advancement as well as the competition turning fierce, it is a key aspect to an enterprise’s survivorship that promote effectively its own core competitive capability to acclimate the competition environment which is more and more violent. The enterprise’s core competence is manifested not only in the specific technology and the know-how, but also in the effective cultivation, the development and the management of the marketing channel. Especially as now, the competition among enterprises is no longer that of one-to-one, but in a kind of network competition situation, the channel management then becomes the enterprise’s lifeline. One of the ways to assure an enterprise a sustainable development is to keep the marketing channel healthy and effective.Since the economic and social development of our nation is experiencing its reforming period, and the uncertaint factors of environment facing by enterprises’ management is increasing, marketing risks in enterprises more easily occurs accordingly. Thus, the key to enterprises’ successful marketing is the effective marketing channel risk management. However, as an exterior strategic resource of enterprises’ marketing, the marketing channel has its characteristics of exterior nature and complexity, the marketing channel risks will be more difficulty. In this sense, the theory of marketing channel risk management is an important research issue and has a great significance for enterprises marketing practice.This dissertation, based on the fact, carries on the discussion of the theory of the marketing channel risk management. Its main work is as following:(1) It analyzes the marketing channel risk management’s rationale. According to the analysis of the marketing channel management theory, added to enterprise risk and the marketing risk research, it discusses the concept, characteristics, types and influence factors of marketing channel risk. Meanwhile, it uses the life cycle theory to divide the marketing channel life cycle, and compare the influence of risk factors in different life stages; it employs the systems theory to analyze the complexity and the vulnerability of marketing channel system and to discriminate the relation between the vulnerability of the marketing channel and the channel efficiency; it analyzes each kind of risk chain in the marketing channel, and discusses the channel risk transmission principle using the Markov model. (2) It further discusses the concept, types, and reasons and transmission principle of the loss risk of customers, the credit risk, and the logistics risk.(3) It establishes the early-warning management system of marketing channel risk. From the system angle, it analyzes the early-warning management theory of the marketing channel risk and the fundamental principles, outlines functions of each part of the system and the movement flow, and establishes the appraisal system of the marketing channel risk index.(4) It proposes prevention system of the marketing channel risk. Take the thought of the marketing channel risk prevention as a basis, it discusses the ways of prevention of the marketing channel risk, and it proposes the measures of the marketing channel risk prevention which bases on the early-warning management, expecting to lay the safeguard foundation to the smooth revolution of the enterprise marketing channel.(5) It conducts the real diagnosis research to the risk of the marketing channel. Using survey and expert lectures, and according to the practical investigation to the enterprises, it carries out a statistical analysis of the investigation result, and supplies supplemental explanation and verification of the theory in this article.The rationale of this article is the theories of marketing management, risk management, early-warning management, and the game theory and the system theory. The dissertation uses both qualitative and quantitative, and the combination of theory and empirical methods, takes advantage of the modeling tools such as AHP, Markov chain model, the differential equation model, the system dynamics model, the network topology, the game theory model and the neural network model to draw quantitative analysis.Seeing that the marketing environment is complex and dynamic, there are still some issues left to be investigated in the future of this study.更多还原