开放经济下银行稳定研究

【作者】 张荣峰；

【导师】 杨建文；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化浪潮的兴起,各国经济开放程度不断提高,都在逐步从封闭、半封闭状态转向开放状态,试图通过经济开放实现要素最优配置,从而提高本国经济福利水平。适应经济开放要求,各国金融管制不断放松,金融开放程度逐步提高,但是在开放经济中获取利益并非一帆风顺。20世纪80年代以来无论是发达的欧美国家,还是新兴市场国家的金融业都先后在经济开放中,发生了银行危机、货币危机等金融危机事件,尤其是银行危机给这些国家造成了沉重的经济损失,甚至引发了一些国家的政治、经济危机。传统的有关银行稳定宏微观理论分析,并不能有效解释这一系列银行不稳定事件的发生,因为各国银行业所处环境发生了变化,即各国经济金融的开放程度都在前所未有的提高。因此,如何在开放经济中实现一国银行稳定是一个全新课题,正成为国内外经济学者的关注热点之一。通过对近期国内外关于银行稳定研究的大量文献梳理中发现,目前对开放经济中银行稳定的研究尚未形成一套完整的理论体系。本文认为从制度层面看,在开放经济中影响一国银行稳定的主要因素在于,宏观经济政策、金融自由化、金融创新。首先,本文利用Mundell-Fleming-Dornbucsh的开放宏观经济模型即IS-LM-BP模型,对宏观经济政策不稳健及国外宏观经济政策效应溢出影响本国银行稳定的内在机理进行详尽分析。分析表明,宏观经济政策不稳健将引发利率、汇率、收入及价格水平等宏观经济变量的异常波动,进而直接、间接对银行稳定产生不利冲击。并且与本国有着密切联系的经济大国宏观经济政策变动效应,也将通过利率差异、收入增长等路径传导给本国经济,对本国银行稳定造成影响。其次,经济高度开放必然要求金融管制的取消,具体而言,就是利率、业务、市场准入、资本流动管制的放松和取消即所谓金融自由化。这些措施使得银行业竞争性增强,同时面临的外部环境也更为复杂多变。尤其是资本流动自由化所造成的资产价格波动、货币替代、资本外逃等问题,导致银行业面临的潜在不稳定增加,而对欧美、拉美及亚洲等18个国家1976-2005年间相关金融指标的实证研究则为理论分析提供了数据支持。最后,开放经济环境中,金融创新活动层出不穷,一方面给银行业创造了收益,另一方面又造成货币政策效力降低、银行经营行为的风险偏好加剧等一系列宏微观负效应,致使银行不稳定性增强。根据上述理论分析可知,在开放经济中实现银行稳定需要一系列制度体系建设,主要包括:稳健的宏观经济政策、内部风险控制制度、金融安全网、银行业市场约束等制度建设。宏观经济政策的稳健性体现在两个层面上,一是财政、货币政策实施的适度性,并注意与汇率制度有效搭配。二是加强宏观经济政策的国际协调,弱化国外宏观经济政策调控对本国银行稳定的负面冲击。银行内部风险控制是维护其稳定的微观制度基础,主要由内部控制环境建设、识别和评价风险等基本要素构成。制度有效运作取决于组织上设立高效的内控组织机构、对象上明确内部控制系统组成以及方法上不断完善内部控制方式。银行监管、存款保险、最后贷款人等制度构成的金融安全网能有效维护系统性银行稳定。现实中金融安全网还存在许多亟待完善之处,如强化监管机构的风险监管功能,消除存款保险和最后贷款人制度引发的道德风险行为。存款人等市场力量对银行风险经营行为的约束,可最大限度降低政府监管成本,提升监管效率。增强市场约束力量,需要严格的信息披露制度、发达的金融市场体系以及有限的金融安全网等制度安排。即使有了微观到宏观的一系列制度安排,也难以完全避免银行不稳定特别是银行危机的发生,因此,监管机构必须拥有一套完整的从危机控制、银行重组到资产负债处置的应急处置程序。通过对开放经济中影响银行稳定的关键因素,以及应对银行不稳定的制度建设等一系列问题的理论和实证分析,初步构建了开放经济中银行稳定的理论分析框架。利用这一理论框架,结合我国银行业发展现状,对开放进程中影响我国银行稳定的因素、应对策略进行了深入研究。研究表明:开放进程中我国银行业市场结构的垄断程度正逐步下降,银行业经营效率有所提高,但与国际先进银行相比,无论在收益性、安全性等经营指标上仍存在差距。目前,不良贷款偏高、汇率政策转型、金融自由化取向、金融创新深化等因素,将在一段时间内影响着我国开放进程中的银行稳定。根据理论与实证分析,本文最后提出了降低不良资产、稳步实现汇率政策转型、创建金融安全网等一系列策略,以实现开放进程中维护我国银行稳定的战略目标。本文试图从开放经济视角构建实现银行稳定的理论研究框架,为银行稳定研究开创一条新的研究路径。期望联系我国银行业发展实情的理论和实证分析,能够为开放进程中实现我国银行稳定的战略目标提供理论依据和实践指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rising of the global economy integration, the open level of the countries’economy has been rising, and the countries’economy gradually is turning to open condition from self-enclosed condition to realize the optimal allocation of element and increase the country’s welfare level. According to the demand of open economy, the countries’financial controls have been relaxing and the level of financial opening has been increasing, but getting the economic benefit has not been all plain sailing in open economy. Since the eighties of the 20th century, the financial industry of some developed countries and emerging market countries have produced financial crises, including banking crisis and currency crisis and others in economic opening. Especially, banking crises have caused the heavy economic loss, even the political and economic crises. Traditional macro and micro theories study about banking stability don’t effectively explain the cause of a series of banking instability,because the circumstances of these countries’banking have changed , which the open level of these countries’economy and finance greatly has been improved. Therefore,it is a new issue how the country realize the banking stability in open economy, and is becoming one of the hot issues that the economists both at home and abroad study.Through sorting out a number of the recent documents of the banking stability both at home and abroad, it is discovered that a whole set of theory system hasn’t been formed about the study on the banking stability in open economy. The paper thinks that in view of system, the major factors that affect the banking stability are macro-economic policy, financial liberalization and financial innovation in open economy. At first, the paper will make use of Mundell-Fleming-Dornbucsh’s open economy model, namely IS-LM-BP model to exhaustively analyze the inherent mechanism which the domestic non-moderate macro-economic policy and the overflow of foreign macro-economic policy effect affluence banking stability. The analyses indicate that in open economy, the non-moderate macro-economic policy will initiate the unusual fluctuations of interest rate, exchange rate, income and price which directly and indirectly bring about banking instability. In addition, the changes of macro-economic policy of the economic power which keeps in intimate contact with the country will impact its banking stability through the paths of interest rate difference and income growth etc. Secondly, highly open economy certainly requires the cancellation of financial control, which relaxes or cancels all kinds of controls about interest rate, business, market entry and capital flow, namely called financial liberalization. It makes banking competition increase, and banking faces more complex circumferences. Especially, capital flow liberalization causes a series of issues such as assets price fluctuation, currency substitution and capital outflow, which result in banking confronted with more serious instability, and the Empirical studies of relative financial indices for eighteen countries from Europe and America, Latin America and Asia from1976 to 2005 provide data basis for theoretical analyses. Lastly, in open economy, financial innovation activities emerge in an endless stream. On the one hand they create profits for banking, on the other hand bring about some unfavorable macro and micro influences such as currency policy effect reduction and risk preference aggravation of bank operational conduct and others, which lead to banking instability rising.According to the above theoretical analyses, realizing the banking stability demands a series of institution system construction, mainly including moderate macro-economic policy, internal risk control system, financial safety net and market discipline. The moderation of macro-economic policy is revealed in two levels. At first, the enforcement of financial and currency policy should be appropriate, and pay attention to the effective matching with exchange rate system. Secondly, the international coordination of macro-economic policy should be strengthened to relieve foreign macro-economic policy causing disadvantage impact on the domestic banking stability. Internal risk control system is micro system basis which maintains banking stability, mainly consisting of the elements such as circumstance construction, risk discernment and evaluation etc. Its effectiveness depends on establishing effective internal risk control organization, making clear internal risk control system composition and improving internal risk control methods. The financial safety net composed of banking supervision, deposit insurance and lender of last resort can effectively keep banking stability. At fact, the current financial safety net has some faults, so it need be improved by strengthening the risk supervision function of supervision organization, eliminating the moral hazard caused by deposit insurance and lender of last resort system. The market power consisting of depositor and others is able to restrain the bank’s risk conduct to reduce government supervision cost in maximum limit and promote supervision efficiency. Strengthening the power of market discipline demands a series of system construction, including strict information exposure, advanced financial market and limited financial safety net. Even if there are these systems from micro to macro, it also is difficult to completely avoid banking crisis, so the supervision organization must possess a set of whole urgent management procedure for banking crisis from crisis control to assets and liabilities handling.Through a series of theoretical and empirical analyses about the key factors of effecting banking stability and systems construction of dealing with banking instability, the paper roughly constructs the frame of theory study about banking stability in open economy. The last chapter deeply studies the factors of effecting Chinas’banking stability and appropriate strategy dealing with banking instability in the open course by using the theory frame, combining the present situation of china’s banking development. The study indicates that the monopoly degree of china’s banking market structure has been decreasing, and banking operational efficiency has bettered in open course, but there are some gaps in comparison with international advanced banks on either earnings or security. At present, these factors such as high non-performing loans,exchange rate policy change, financial liberalization and financial innovation deepening will influence china’s banking stability in open course in period. According to theoretical and empirical analyses, the paper finally puts forward a series of strategies such as reducing non-performing loans, steadily realizing exchange rate policy change and setting up financial safety net to achieve the strategic target which maintains china’s banking stability.The paper intends to establish the theory frame which realizes banking stability from the view of open economy to create a new path of study. Hoping theoretical and empirical analyses related with the status quo of china’s banking can provide theoretical basis and guidance in practice for realizing the target that keep its banking stability in open course.更多还原