中国石油安全预警及对策研究

【作者】 范秋芳；

【导师】 马扬；

【作者基本信息】 中国科学技术大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 近年来，随着我国国民经济的持续快速发展，我国的石油消费量逐年增加，石油消费的增长速度远远大于生产的增长速度，国内石油供求矛盾日渐增大且已成定势。为满足我国经济发展的需要，石油对外依存度逐年加大，而与此同时，国际油价频繁波动。不断增大的供需缺口和频繁波动的油价使得国家石油安全风险系数不断增大，石油安全已经威胁到国家的经济安全和国家安全，石油安全已成为我国不可回避的现实问题。本文研究的目的是在全新的石油安全理论基础上，针对中国石油安全面临的主要国际、国内态势，构建石油安全监测预警指标体系，并对中国石油安全预警进行应用性研究，进而提出中国石油安全对策及建议，建立和完善我国的石油安全预警机制，为保障国家石油安全、保障国民经济安全运行提供理论依据和决策借鉴。本论文主要从以下几方面进行研究：首先，探讨了石油安全预警的有关理论，构建了本文研究所需的理论基础和框架：其次，从世界油气资源、国际油气供求、国际市场油价、国际石油政治等方面定性和定量地全面深入分析了影响中国石油安全的主要国际因素，通过分析看出我国石油安全面临的国际油气环境既有机遇又有挑战；再次，从国内油气资源态势、油气供需态势、油气进口状况和油气运营环境等方面定性和定量地全面深入分析了影响中国石油安全的主要国内因素，通过分析看出我国石油安全面临的形势及问题；第四、在前面分析研究的基础上，针对中国的实际情况，提出了石油安全预警的研究思路和石油安全预警指标体系的构建原则，从可操作的角度构建了中国石油安全监测预警指标体系：第五，在石油安全预警指标体系的基础上，分别应用层次分析法和人工神经网络方法对中国石油安全预警进行了探索性的应用研究；最后，在总结全文研究的基础上，提出了中国石油安全的对策及建议。本论文的创新之处主要在于：第一、提出了全新的石油安全预警理论，首先从数量安全、价格安全和使用安全三个角度重新界定了中国石油安全的内涵，探讨了石油安全的标准；进而对石油安全预警进行了界定，并提出了石油安全预警的步骤。构建了全新的、完整的中国石油安全预警理论框架体系；第二、面对不断变化的形势，基于全新的视野，针对中国的实际国情，提出了构建石油安全预警指标体系的原则，并从资源、供需、进口、市场四方面构建了中国石油安全监测预警指标体系：确认了各指标的预警界限及由预警界限划分的石油安全状态和安全等级，确定了中国石油安全预警指标的评价标准；第三、在石油安全预警指标体系的基础上，对中国石油安全预警进行了探索性的应用研究。对中国石油安全进行了综合评价预警研究，建立了监测预警方法与模型，并进行了实证分析和应用；进而根据石油安全预警的特点，采用神经网络方法进行预警，设计了BP神经网络模型，应用BP神经网络建立了中国石油安全预警系统，是我国石油安全预警方法上的一个新尝试，为中国石油安全预警提供了一条新的研究思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, along with the sustained and rapid development of China’s national economy, oil consumption has increased year by year and oil consume growth rate is far greater than the growth rate of its produce. The growing imbalance between supply and demand has become the settled problem in our country. To meet the needs of China’s economic development, the rate of outward oil dependency is increasing gradually, at the same time, frequent fluctuations of international oil prices and increasing gap between supply and demand makes national oil security risk coefficient is increasing. Oil security has become a threat to the national economic security and national security. Therefore, the oil security has become our unavoidable realistic problem.Aiming at the international and domestic situation faced by China petroleum security, the purpose of this study is to establish petroleum security monitoring and pre-warning indicator system on the basis of bran-new petroleum security theory, doing applied research to the petroleum security pre-warning system, and then put forward strategies and suggestions about China’s petroleum security, establishes and improves China’s petroleum security pre-warning mechanisms, and provided a theoretical basis and decision-making for protecting the nation’s petroleum security and safeguarding national economic safe operation.This paper studies from the following aspects: First, this paper explored the related concepts of oil security warning system, constructing the theoretical foundation and framework of this paper. Second, from the aspects of World oil and gas resources, World oil and gas’s supply and demand, international market oil price and international oil politics, this paper gives a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the main international factors, influencing China’s oil security.Through above analysis, it presents the opportunity and challenge which China’s oil security is faced with in the international situation. Third, from the aspects of resources trend, supply and demand situation, imports conditions and operations environments of oil & gas, this paper gives a comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the main domestic factors, influencing China’s oil security. Through above analysis, it presents the problems which China’s oil security is faced with. Fourth, in front of the analytical study based on the actual situation in China, this paper put forward the research ideas and constructive principles of oil security warning system , and on the basis of what, it built China petroleum security monitoring and pre-warning indicator system from the perspective of operable. Fifth, On the basis of China’s petroleum security warning indicator system, this part used the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and artificial neural network (ANN) to do an exploratory work for the security pre-warning system. Finally, on the basis of summing up above 5 parts, this part provided strategies and recommendations of China’s petroleum pre-security.The innovative Points of this paper are mainly as follows: First, it proposes a new theory of petroleum security pre-warning. It redefines the meaning of China’s petroleum security from three perspectives of quantity safety, Price safety and use safety, discussing the oil safety standards; then, it gives the definition of petroleum security pre-warning and brings forward its steps, constructing a new and comprehensive framework for China’s petroleum security system; Second, in the face of an ever-changing situation, based on the new vision of China’s actual conditions, this paper proposes the principles to build petroleum security pre-warning indicator system, and constructs the system from the way of resources, supply and demand, import and market. It recognizes all levels indicators pre-warning limits and divides the security status and security levels by the recognized limits, determining the evaluation criteria of indicator system; third, on the basis of pre-warning indicator system, this paper did an exploratory work for China’s petroleum security warning, it makes a comprehensive evaluation on China’s oil security warning, established monitoring and pre-warning methods and models and presented demonstration analysis and applications; Then based on the characteristics of oil security warning, neural networks was used for the pre-warning. It designed Bp neural networks models, using which established China Petroleum security warning system. The establishment of China Petroleum BP neural network is a new attempt on the petroleum pre-warning methods, and provides a new research ideas and measures for China’s petroleum security pre-warning.更多还原