【作者】 胡振；

【导师】 金维兴；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 PFI（Private Finance Initiative）是公共项目民间供给的有效方式，目前在英国、日本等发达国家与地区得到了积极的推广，取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。我国公共项目投资需求巨大（特别是中西部），财政资金短缺而大量民间资本处于闲置状态，说明发展PFI事业既十分必要，又完全可能，事实上PFI项目也是逐年增加的，但问题在于至今仍没有明确的发展规划和制度安排，使得这项事业的发展带有一定的盲目性，缺少规范性。为此，本文借鉴发达国家的实践经验，结合中国国情研究PFI的基本理论，探讨中国PFI事业发展模式及管理体制，取得了如下研究成果：（1）基于PFI事业发展的经济学分析，界定了以PFI模式开发公共项目产生的成本降低和早期供应两种经济效果，得出了当私人投资回报期望小于综合成本降低效果时、会产生使政府和私人双方都能获得超额收益的政府补助区间（V₀-V₁+R，V₂-V₁）或特许权定价区间（V′₁-V′₂，V′₁-V′₀-R）的结论，为中国PFI事业的发展、运作和政府的宏观决策提供了重要的理论依据；（2）基于建筑经济空间结构理论提出了中国PFI事业三维发展模式及其构建方案。在应用领域方面，建立了公共项目PFI指数体系及评价模型，提出了中国PFI事业发展应以PFI指数较高且私人投资较为偏好的公共项目作为核心领域，逐渐向PFI指数及私人投资偏好较低的公共项目扩张的应用领域选择路线；在地域方面，提出了以北京、上海和广州为核心城市，并围绕核心城市构建京津、长三角和珠三角三个PFI事业高速发展区域，通过三个发展区域向其他省会城市拓展并辐射全国的地域选择路线；在运作方式方面，提出了以BTO方式为核心，随着PFI事业发展逐渐向BOT、BOO方式拓展的运作方式选择路线；（3）通过问卷调研、指标量化及聚类分析，研究了中国PFI事业发展的影响因素，提出了由组织体系、运作流程、法律规范和学习机制等四个基本方面构成的中国PFI事业管理体制。研究成果表明：风险共同分担、强化公共职能和民间技术优势是促进中国PFI事业发展的积极因素，缺乏保障机制、运作流程缺陷和相关知识匮乏是阻碍中国PFI事业发展的消极因素；政府应对PFI事业实行直线管制或矩阵管制，基于VFM和NPV确定项目类型，出台PFI事业基本法并修改相关法律，通过成立PFI事业协会、培养专业人才和加强相关的科研立项工作，建设良好的学习和知识积累的制度平台。此外，本文还以建筑业为例，研究了PFI事业发展对产业经济的带动作用，得出了PFI事业发展与建筑业发展的相关关系。PFI项目投资增长率较高、市场占有率较低，在Boston矩阵中处于“问题业务”阶段，按照其高增长的趋势，在未来一定时间会成为建筑业经济增长的主要贡献者；在短期内PFI事业发展水平与建筑业发展水平互为因果关系，在长期内建设投资增长率是PFI事业投资增长率的格兰杰因，它们之间存在着协整关系。本文关于PFI基本理论问题的研究成果，是对原有PFI理论的进一步拓展，可以促进其独立学科的形成和发展；所提出的PFI事业三维发展模式及其管理体制，可以为中国政府制定PFI事业发展规划和构建良好的制度平台，提供理论指导和支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 PFI （Private Finance Initiative） is an effective manner of the non-government supply for public projects, which has been promoted positively, and achieved good economic and social benefits in the United Kingdom, Japan and other developed countries and regions. China has huge demand for public projects （especially in the middle and western regions）, and the financial funds are in shortage while a large number of private funds are in idle, so it is not only quite necessary, but also entirely possible to develop PFI industry. In fact, PFI projects are also more and more year by year, but the problem is that we still haven’ t clear development plans and institutional arrangements, making the development of this industry with definite blindness, and lack of standardization. In this paper, learning from the experience of developed countries, and in light of China’s basic national conditions, we study on the PFI theory, discuss China’s PFI developing model and the management system, and then we achieve the following results:1) Based on the economic analysis of PFI industry development, we define two economies results-the reducing cost and early supply-generated by developing public projects in PFI mode; the conclusion is also obtained that when private investment return expectations lower than overall cost effectiveness, government and private investors will both have an excess receipts in the government subsidy section （V₀ - V₁ + R, V₂ - v₁） or in the concession agreement prices section（V’₁ -V’₂, V’₁’-V’₀ -R）, so as to provide an important theoretical basis for the development and the operation of China PFI industry, and the government’s macroeconomic policy;2) The three-dimensional development mode and construction programs of China’s PFI industry is put forward based on the theory of spatial structure of economic construction. In the application field, we have established a system of public projects PFI evaluation index and evaluation model, and bring about the field alternative route that China PFI industry development should take public projects with a higher PFI index and more private investment as the core area, and preference gradually turn to the application area expanding from public projects with a lower PFI index and a lower private investment preference; in the location field, we bring about the location alternative route taking Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as the core cities, and building three high-developing-speed regions of FPI industry around the core cities of Beijing and Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region, and then expanding to other provincial cities and even the whole country through these three development regions; in the mode of operation, setting up the operation mode alternative route taking the BTO mode as the core, expanding to the BOT, BOO mode with the gradual development of the PFI industry;3) Through questionnaire, cluster analysis and quantitative indicators, we studied the factors affecting the development of China PFI industry, and proposed a management system of Chinese PFI industry, consisted of four basic forms: the constitution system, the operational flow, legislations and regulations, and a learning mechanism. The study results show: shared risk, strengthening public functions and the technological edge are positive factors in promoting the development of China PFI industry, the lack of a protection mechanism, operational flow deficiencies and the lack of relevant knowledge are negative factors to obstruct China’s PFI industry development. So the government should implement the linear or matrix mode control to PFI industry, define the project type based on the NPV and VFM, promulgate the basic law of PFI industry and the revision of relevant laws, establish PFI utility association, train professionals, strengthen the establishing work for scientific studies, and build a good system platform for learning and knowledge accumulation.In addition, the paper also taking the construction industry as an example, studies the role of PFI industry development in promoting the industry economics, and finds a correlation between PFI industry development and the development of the construction industry. PFI projects have a higher investment growth rate and a lower market share rate, at the "operational" stage in the Boston Matrix; along with its high-growth trend, it will be the main contributor to economic growth in the construction industry. In a short period, the level of PFI industry development is with correlation of the level of development of the construction industry, but in the long run, the construction investment growth rate is the Granger cause of the PFI investment growth rate, and they share Co integration relations.The results of this paper on studying the PFI basic theories are expansions of the original PFI theory for a further step, so as to promote the formation and development of its independent subject; the proposed three-dimensional development mode and its management structure of PFI industry, can provide theoretical guidance and support for Chinese government to formulate PFI industry development plans and build a good system platform.更多还原