【作者】 王伟；

【导师】 张粒子；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 电力市场化改革后,电网投资规划的理论创新应侧重于分别从投资者和监管者的角度如何进行输配电网投资规划分析,而对于网络结构最为复杂的中压配电网规划的理论创新则应侧重于网络结构的优化。本论文在归纳和分析国内外理论研究和实践成果的基础上,在输配电网投资规划及其监管和中压配电网络结构优化等方面的研究取得了以下创新性成果:(1)引入系统动力学原理,提出市场机制下输配电网投资规划的系统动力学简化和完整仿真模型,为电网企业制定投资决策提供科学方法;站在投资者角度,研究电网企业投资规划动态特性,对于输配电网投资规划分析以及其中各环节的相互作用、相互影响的动态关系,建立各环节的数学模型,并采用仿真分析方法,对输配电网投资规划决策进行评价。(2)借鉴环境承载力理论,提出了输配电网投资规划分析的信号模型和预警机制,为电力监管部门正确判断输配电网投资时机提供科学方法;定义了表述电力市场中输配电网投资规划信号的四维环境承压度:生态环境-阻塞、人文环境-市场力、技术环境-可靠性、金融环境-输配电价,对输配电网投资规划的信号—四维电网环境进行了系统建模,解决了监管机构对输配电网投资规划投产时机的监管指标问题。(3)针对输配电网的价格形成的监管,提出对三种主要的价格管制方式建立系统动力学的模型,直观的地展示了不同管制方式的优缺点和动态行为特性,使输配电价管制方式的研究由定性到定量化、由粗糙到精确化,为电力监管部门合理定价和有效监管提供了科学方法。(4)对我国当前的电网投资规划的监管机制和基于监管信息系统的监管机制分别建立了系统动力学模型,对比分析了电网企业的输配电价和容载比的动态特性、监管信息不对称的表现形式,指出监管信息系统的建立可以消除监管信息不对称、平抑输配电价和容载比波动。(5)针对市场机制下中压配电网络结构优化问题,借鉴面向对象的思想和生物进化的理论,提出了结构元及其衍生理论的中压配电网络优化模型和一种新的接线模式分类和建模思想,建立了“系”、“族”和“结构元”三层分类结构体系,为了更多地考虑电力市场环境下的特殊性和未来负荷的增长,提出了包含中压配电网衍生能力的指标体系,并采用了模糊综合评价方法进行中压配电网络结构优化选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the reform of electricity market, the theory innovation of grid investment planning emphasize the analysis of transmission and distribution investment planning from investor and regulator, however the theory innovation of the medium-voltage distribution planning whose networks are the most intricate emphasize networks optimization. On the base of generalizing the domestic and international theories research and the practicing experience, the creative research in transmission and distribution investment planning as well as its regulation and medium-voltage distribution networks optimization are acquired, as follows:(1)Based on theory of system dynamics(abbr. SD), the simple and complex SD simulation model of transmission and distribution investment planning is put forward in the electricity market, which provides scientific methods for grid corporations to make the investment strategy. From investor’s standpoint, the dynamic behavior of grid corporations’investment planning. It is set up SD models of dynamic relations of transmission investment planning analysis as well as varies’effect, thereby the method of simulation is adopted for the evaluation of transmission and distribution investment planning.(2)The signal model and warning mechanism of grid investment planning are put forword based on environment carrying capacity theory, which provide the scientific methods for electric regulation department judging transmission and distribution opportunity exactly. The carrying-pressure index of four-dimensional environment of the signal of planning is defined that include the entironment—congestion, human environment—market power, technic environment—reliability and financial environment—transmission and distribution price. So that the four-dimensional environment either sigal of planning is set up models systemically using the method of environmental carrying capacity, at the same time the regulation of constructing opportunity is solved.(3)It is proposed three modes of transmission and distribution price regulation found SD models for price forming regulation, which expressed directly the good and bad points of different regulation modes and the dynamic behavior character in order that the research on the modes of price regulation change qualitative analysis to quantitative and roughness to exactness. This provides scientific method for pricing rationally and effective regulation(4)The SD model of grid investment planning regulation currently and based on regulation information system are all founded. It is analyzed contrastively that grid price and capacity-load ratio change dynamically and asymmetric information manifests. So founding information system of regulation may eliminate asymmetric information and restrain the fluctuation of price and capacity-load ratio(5)The dissertation propose the model based on configuration-unit and its derivation theory using the idea of object oriented and natural evolution in the planning of medium-voltage distribution systems, which put forword a new measure for categorizing and modeling the connection modes. The system is established which contains“series”,“tribe”and“configuration-unit”. So as to consider special problem in electricity market and increasing load, the index system including derivative ability is proposed , what’s more,the medium-voltage distribution optimization use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.更多还原