【作者】 王亮；

【导师】 张宏伟；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 容量总量控制模式在有效地防治水污染方面比传统指令性总量控制模式具有更大的优越性,当前,对水环境容量计算和容量总量分配的研究已成为水环境管理科学的前沿领域和热点之一。针对已有的研究成果在容量计算和分配方法的科学性、公平性、经济性及可操作性等方面所存在的缺陷,本文结合天津市地表水环境自身特点、污染源状况和社会经济发展规划等要素,综合运用多学科理论与方法,提出了水环境容量计算和总量控制目标确定的新方法,建立了污染源及行业优化分配的二维模型和基于GIS的空间模型,形成一套既有科学理论基础、又注重现实可行性的地表水体重点水污染物容量总量控制方法体系。首先,在对天津市水环境系统特征进行辨析的基础上,首次提出用“入海水量”倒推求功能区设计流量的方法,制定出专门针对水资源缺乏、水污染严重及人工影响强烈地区水系的水环境容量计算新方法,解决了天津市水环境功能区这样的非常规水环境容量计算范畴的计算方法问题。其次,提出了新的功能区容量总量控制目标的确定公式,首次将多人合作对策理论(multiple-person cooperation game theory,MPCG)引入到容量总量控制领域,提出了公平占优分配、兼顾公平与效益分配和多人合作模式下的优化分配三种分配模型与方法,完善了费用最小化法和税收补贴法,丰富了容量总量分配技术体系。再次,将GIS应用于水污染物容量总量控制。利用ArcSDE技术构建包涵空间信息和属性数据的空间地理数据库(geodatabase);在此基础上利用Delphi、VBA和ArcGIS组件等工具进行二次开发,建立起基于GIS的水污染物容量总量控制空间模型体系;该模型体系应用了缓冲区分析、线性参考和空间距离测算等GIS功能,能够大大提高总量控制工作的效率和精度,并具有可视化的特点。最后,提出以满足环境、资源、行业规划等约束前提下的经济效益最大化作为目标,通过进行水污染物容量总量行业优化分配,实现区域行业结构优化调整和资源优化配置协同化的管理思想;基于水污染物容量总量控制建立起多目标行业总量优化分配模型,在模型中为考虑优化行业结构约束提出了行业水环境经济综合指数的概念,并将基于统计学习理论和结构风险最小化准则的支持向量机(SVM)方法引入到容量总量控制领域中用于确定行业水环境经济综合指数。更多还原

【Abstract】 The total capacity control, in the field of water pollution prevent and control, is more effective than the traditional mandatory total control. At present, the calculation and allocation of water environment capacity has become one of the focuses of the water environmental management science. Aiming at the limitation of the existed researches in the scientificity, impartiality, economy and practicability of capacity calculation and allocation methods, this dissertation, combining many factors such as surface water environmental characteristic, pollution source condition and society economy development plan of Tianjin and through the integrated using of many theories and methods in different fields, proposed a new method for water environment capacity calculation and the defining of the objective of total control. Furthermore, two dimension models and spatial models based on GIS for the optimization allocation of capacity among pollution sources and industries were established. As a result, a scientific and practicable total capacity control method system for surface water’s main pollutants was established.Firstly, based on the analysis of Tianjin’s water environmental system, a flux calculation method of river using the capacity gone into sea was proposed for the first time. Specially focusing on the areas having the characteristics of water resource shortage, seriously polluted and intensity affected by human beings, a new method of water environment capacity calculation was put forwarded, which solved the calculation problem of Tianjin’s water environment capacity.Secondly, a new formula, which can determine the objective of total capacity control of river, was put forwarded. In this section, the multiple-person cooperation game theory was introduced into the total capacity control field for the first time. Then, three kinds of optimizing allocation models, i.e. the fair method, the fair and economical method and the multiple-person cooperation method, were proposed. With these models, the minimal cost method and the revenue-subsidy method were consummated, and the allocation technology system of capacity was greatly enriched too.Thirdly, GIS was applied into the total capacity control of water pollution. Using the ArcSDE technology, a spatial geodatabase that includes many kinds of spatialinformation and attribute data was built. Based on this geodatabase, a spatial model system of the water pollution total capacity control under GIS was developed by the redevelopment in Delphi, VBA and ArcGIS environment. By applying many types of GIS function, such as buffer analyzing, linear referencing and spatial distance measuring etc, this model system could greatly increase the efficiency and precision of the total control, and had the characteristic of visibility.At last, aiming to obtain maximal economic performance under the restriction of environment, resources, industry development planning and so on, a management theory was put forwarded. In this theory, through the carrying out of the water pollution total capacity optimizing allocation among the industries, the resource optimal allocation could work harmonious with the optimal adjustment of the regional industry structure. Then, based on the water pollution total capacity control, the multi-objective optimizing allocation model of the industry capacity was built. In order to minimize the industry structure’s restriction, the concept of synthetical index of industry water environment and economy was introduced in this model. Furthermore, the support vector machine (SVM) method, which was based on the statistical learning theory (SLT) and the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) principle, was introduced into the capacity total control field to determine the value of the synthetical index.更多还原