【作者】 王维刚；

【导师】 陈德棉；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 由于经济的发展、人口的自然增长、人口老龄化社会的形成、人类健康需求的不断提高和科学技术的进步，多年来医药产业持续以较高速度发展，被称为是永不衰落的朝阳行业。世界各国政府、企业界和投资家的高度重视医药产业，围绕医药产业发展特征和规律的研究，学术界也形成了不少富有价值的研究成果。但是，综合现有的研究可以发现，国外学者更多关注的是对产业发展普遍规律的理论探讨，而中国研究人员主要局限于对于中国医药行业基本现状和特征的描述性研究。正是在这样的背景下，本文试图在相关理论和方法进行科学分析的基础上，通过对医药产业成长一般规律的把握，从中国的经济、社会、政治等具体实际出发，揭示中国医药产业的成长特征、发展规律、发展路径和未来前景，为政府的产业决策、企业的投资选择提供参考。 在获得大量时间序列数据和多国家、地区横截面数据的基础上，本文从医药产品的市场特征、医药产业的技术与研发特征、医药企业的竞争特征和医药产业成长的过程特征等几个方面探讨了医药产业的现状特点、过程特征和运行轨迹，揭示了医药市场激烈竞争的实质和内在原因，描述了医药产业随着经济发展而呈现高速增长、缓慢发展和平稳增长等阶段性增长态势。在相关和回归分析的基础上，研究了市场需求、市场供给和制度政策等变量要素对医药产业成长过程的影响。 在医药产业一般特征和规律研究结论的指导下，本文以中国医药产业(主要为医药制造业)为分析对象，深入剖析了中国医药产业成长的基本特征。经过曲折艰难的发展历程，中国医药产业已经越过产业的导入期，进入高速发展的阶段，高增长与低盈利将是这一阶段的典型特征，未来若干年仍将保持稳步增长的势头。尽管如此，中国医药企业和产品竞争力不强，产业过度竞争与创新能力低下成为中国医药产业发展的两大顽疾。 在产业成长要素分析的基础上，本文研究了中国医药产业成长的内在机理。资本、劳动和技术等产业成长要素共同推动中国医药产业成长，但资本对产业增长具有显著重要的意义。本文还对中国医药产业成长的动力机制和集群发展机制进行了分析，医药产业主体在利益机制作用下，按照利润最大化原则，实施产业进入退出和扩张收缩，从而驱动产业成长。而不同特色的医药产业园区建设，在推动产业发展和地方经济中发挥了十分重要的作用。但是，由于市场机制不健全而造成产业成长驱动机制扭曲，是造成中国医药产业绩效低下和无序竞争主要原因。 为了从医药产业成长影响变量的角度，揭示中国医药产业成长的外部因素作用机理，本文采取定性分析与定量分析相结合、先分析后综合的方法，研究了宏观环境中的相关因素和微观企业因素对中国医药产业成长的影响。综合研究结果显示，虽然影响医药产业成长的因素众多，但是，GDP、居民收入水平、卫生总费用和医药企业绩效等几个变量能够解释中国医药产业增长影响因素的主要方面。 多变量回归研究和因子分析对中国医药产业成长前景作出了相当接近的预测结论。根据历史的趋势，未来若干年内，中国医药产业仍将处于稳定高速增长的过程之中，其增长率有望保持在16-18％的水平，不仅远远高于同期国民经济的增长速度，而且将远远高于居民收入增长速度和卫生保健总费用的增长速度，中国医药产业高速增长依然可期。更多还原

【Abstract】 The medical industry has kept a high speed of development for years with the economic development, the population increase, the aged society coming into being, more needs for health and the improvement of science and technology. It’s now called "the sun rise industry" and is regarded as won’t wither forever. Governments, enterprises and investors around the globe pay much attention to medical industry and a lot of researches have been done on the industry’s development characteristics and rules. Many valuable findings have also been arrived at. But the scholars outside China always focus on the theoretical analysis of the general rule of this industry’s development. The scholars of China always do some descriptive analysis of the industry’s situation and characteristics in China. Based on this situation, with the understandings of the industry’s general rule and the basic realities of China’s economy, society and politics, this thesis aims at finding the growth rule, growth path and future vision of China’s medical industry and providing advices to government’s industry policies and enterprises’ investment decisions.Based on large amounts of time series data and cross section data of many countries and areas, I discussed the medical industry’s present situation, development process and operational track. I also studied the intrinsic reason and nature of the keen competition in medical market. The development of medical industry has a nature of steadily high speed and follows the development of economy. I studied the impact of market demand, market supply and policy framework on medical industry growth by correlation and regressive analysis.Under the general characteristics and laws of medical industry, I take China’s medical industry (medical manufacturing industry as the main point) as an example and analyze the intrinsic reason and basic features of its growth. After rough process, the medical industry of China got through the introductive period and has entered a period of high speed development which is typically characterized by fast growth and low profit. In the next couple of years, it will still keep a tendency of steady growth. However, the enterprises and products in China’s medical industry are not so competitive. Over competition within the industry and inability of innovation havebeen its two bottlenecks.I studied the intrinsic reasons of this industry’s growth in China and found that capital plays an obviously important role while at the same time industrial factors such as labor force and technology together with capital promote the development of this industry. I also studied the motive mechanism and the industrial cluster mechanism of China’s medical industry. The entrepreneurs are driven by benefit and they enter in or withdraw from the industry, expand or shrink their enterprises according to the profit maximization principle. Medical industrial parks play an important role in promoting the development of the industry and local economy. But the unhealthiness of marketing economy resulted in the distortion of the motive mechanism of the industry’s growth and has been the main reason of the industry’s poor achievements and disorderly competition.I combine the positive and normative researches, take the step of analysis first and integration later and analyze the impact of macro factors on the industry’s growth. I got the conclusion that GDP, domestic income, health spending and medical companies’ efficiency are the main reasons among many ones to explain China’s medical industry development.Multi variable regressive analysis and factor analysis can give quite accurate predictive result of China’s medical industry growth. In the next couple of years, China’s medical industry will have a steady and high-speed development with the increasing rate of about 16-18% annually, which is not only far ahead of the growth rate of GDP and domestic income but also that of the total expanse on health. The fast development of China’s medical industry can be expected.更多还原