【作者】 孙庆荣；

【导师】 吴启迪； 韩传峰；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理系统与管理工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 区域的发展在国家和世界经济发展中发挥着枢纽作用。识别区域可持续发展的共性和特殊性、评价区域可持续发展的能力与水平及对其的调控，已成为区域可持续发展研究和实践的热点，在中国表现的尤为突出。 论文在分析国内外区域可持续发展理论的基础上，从区域可持续发展的结构和系统特征入手，借鉴国内外相关研究成果，介入区域可持续发展系统动力学研究，对区域可持续发展及其评价与调控问题进行了深入研究。在对黄河三角洲区域的自然资源、经济和社会发展系统分析的基础上，根据该区域的独特生态环境，提出生态基础设施的可持续发展规划和主导产业的发展策略。运用系统动力学和区域经济的研究方法，构建了黄河三角洲区域可持续发展系统动力学模型。经过对模型的有效性检验和灵敏性分析，对黄河三角洲区域可持续发展进行了仿真。在模型预测的基础上，按照统筹规划、合理分工、优势互补和协调发展等原则，提出切实可行的区域可持续发展的调控措施。黄河三角洲作为我国重要的石油工业和粮棉生产基地，必须坚持走可持续发展的道路。从政府角度，加强政府联动，对区域总体规划进行必要的战略性调整，建立区域协调与合作机制；在产业层次上，建立区域发展的各产业调控机制，促进生态产业的培育和发展；在区域层次上，综合考虑区域的功能调整，留足发展空间和提高环境质量，以适应多样活动的需要和多种发展的可能性；在资源环境方面，应以环境容量为前提，大力保护生态环境敏感区与生态服务功能重要区，明确地划定保护地区和限制发展地区，制定区域生态环境规划和能源利用战略。采取切实可行的措施，推进黄河三角洲区域和中国的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of region is the title of 21^st century, which plays a vital role in the development of a country and world economy. At present, it has even become the emphases and nodus in the research and practice of regional sustainable development （RSD）, evaluating its capacity and level and regulating, particularly in China.First of all, according to analyse theories of the international RSD, starting with the analysis of structure and systematical characteristics of RSD, and benefiting from the related research results both at home and abroad, intends to probe further into RSD, as well as its assessment and regulation, that is an early study with SD for regional sustainable development.Secondly, on the basis of the systematic analysis of nation resources, economical and social development, it puts forward ecological Infrastructure planning and Leading Industries developing strategies.Then, it is to establish the Yellow River Delta system dynamics model of RSD with the help of research methods of system dynamics and regional economy. The model is checked up and then simulated.Finally, based on the results and the guidance of such principles as planning accordingly, rational division of jobs and harmonious development, the RSD mode of Yellow River Delta is put forward. Government should enhance regional linkage and make strategic adjustment of master plans and enhance regional governmance by establishing a practical mechanism for regional cooperation and coordination. It should set up suitable regional industry development controlling mechanism to accelerate ecologica industries cultivation and development. It should also be considered distributing the regional functions, meeting the spatial demand and higher environmental quality in a comprehensive way and a regional perspective. For preserving the zones of ecological importance and sensitivity, a boundary should be laid out as the frontier of regional growth and preservation zones. Any activity of urban construction should take environmental capacity as precondition. Actions should be taken to encourage ecological development, to address the poluttion issues. Priority should be given to the establishment of practical measures to accelerate the implementation of the strategy.更多还原