【作者】 孙全欣；

【导师】 胡思继；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国客运专线建设的全面展开,客运专线的运输组织、客流组织等与线路运营密切相关的管理问题已提上日程,必须提前着手研究才能满足未来应用的需要。客运专线不同于传统铁路,它有着列车速度高,客运专用,受旅客出行时间影响大,运输需求时间分布不均衡等特点。客运专线的建成将缓解我国干线铁路的运输压力,释放既有线货物运输能力,节约旅客出行时间,提高效率,对于我国全面建设小康,实现和谐社会以及铁路的跨越式发展有着重大意义。国外诸多国家高速铁路的建设起步很早,无论是在技术或是理论上都已相当成熟。而我国的客运专线仍在起步阶段,其理论和技术都不完善。因而本文在借鉴国外高速铁路相关研究成果的基础上,根据我国的实际情况,对我国客运专线的运输组织模式、客运专线的客流特征,客运专线客流量的预测及其影响客流量因素的敏感分析、客运专线和其它交通方式的竞争模型、客运专线的换乘组织、通过能力计算方法、“天窗”开设、列车开行方案等进行了深入研究。并利用石太客运专线作为实际案例,进行实证分析。本文的主要研究内容包括以下几部分:(1)运输组织模式问题是铁路运营的必须首先解决的问题。它决定了运行图的铺画、列车种类、旅客换乘方式、车站设置等等重要问题。本文首先研究了客运专线运输组织模式的分类,以及我国客运专线运输组织模式的选型,并进行了实证研究。(2)科学和准确的客流量预测将为列车开行方案的制定打下坚实的基础。本文在介绍客流特征定量分析方法的基础上,研究了Logit交通方式选择模型、重力模型和灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型进行客流量预测的方法,并研究了敏感度分析方法。(3)由于近期我国客运专线无法形成网络,因而必然存在大量的客运专线之间的、客运专线与既有线之间的、客运专线与其他交通方式之间的中转换乘。这种换乘的效率直接影响到客运专线的市场占有率,必须深入探讨客运专线的换乘组织方案。本文根据随机效用理论,以及网络均衡配流方法,建立了跨线客流衔接的随机用户均衡模型,并对模型的算法和等价性进行证明。通过改变中转距离以及阻抗转换为效用参数,研究了不同换乘距离和不同效用参数下,旅客容忍等候时间。并对如何改善客运专线的换乘组织,提出了相关对策和建议。(4)我国客运专线将存在2种组织模式,即高中混跑、全高速。客运专线通过能力计算方法全客运与传统铁路有较大区别。因此,客运专线上通过能力的计算方法要综合运用两种模式。(5)高速铁路的综合维修,主要指对线路、供电、信号等固定设备进行日常维护和检修。在列车运行图上预留用于维修施工所需要的“空隙”,此空隙称之为“天窗”。它是解决列车运行与设备维修施工之间矛盾的技术措施。本文分析了不同类型“天窗”的形更多还原

【Abstract】 With the construction of the high speed passenger railway lines in our country, their transportation organization, passenger organization and some other management topic about the operation of the railway lines have been on the agenda, and must be studied ahead of schedule to meet the development. Compared to the traditional railway, the passenger transportation special line is only for passenger with high speed, and is easy influenced by the passenger travel time and the travel demand time-distributed illproportioned. The passenger railway line will lighten the transport pressure on the mainline in our country, increase the cargo-transport capacity in the existing line, save the travel time of passenger, and increase the railway operation efficiency. It has also great significance for the full construction of the well-off and harmonious society,and realizing the great-leap-forward development of the railway in our country.The high-speed railway in some developed countries has been constructed very early, so the technique and theory concerning the high-speed railway are developed very well. But high speed passenger railway lines in our country are still in the first stage, so our technique and the theory are not mature fully. By referring to the study results of high-speed railway in other countries, through investigation on the spot, the paper deeply studied the organization mode, the passenger characteristics the passenger flow forecasting, and the interchange organization, the calculation of the capacity, the setting of maintenance window time, and the operation plan of the railway. The Shi-Tai passenger line is also studied in this paper. This paper includes seven parts as following.(1) How to select the mode of transport organization must be settled firstly in railway operation. It determines such items as schedule, type of train, and ways of passenger transfer and location of the stations. So the first work of this paper is to classify the transport organization mode of passenger special line and to determine the mode of China’s passenger transportation special line with demonstration test.(2) Passenger flow decides a train working plan of the line, and has effect on the usage of motor train unit. Therefore, exact prediction of passenger flow should be essential works for train plans. This paper makes study on forecast methods of passenger flow using different models such on Logit Model, Gravity Model and GM(1,1) Model, and also studies on analysis method of sensitivity after introducing the quantities analysis method for passenger flow characteristics.(3)As passenger special line is unable to form network in our country at present, there are a large number of transfer passengers between the new passenger special lines and the existing lines, and between the passenger lines and other traffic models. The efficiency of the transfer influenced directly the market shares of the special lines. The stochastic user equilibrium model for interchange passengers is proposed based on the stochastic effectiveness theory. The waiting time of passenger is estimated when the interchange更多还原