【作者】 宋涛；

【导师】 唐德善；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 我国自1981年开始恢复发行国债，迄今为止已有20年的历史，国债在社会经济生活中所起的作用不可忽视。但是进入20世纪90年代，尤其是自1998年实施积极财政政策以来，我国的国债发行规模急剧增加，这一状况引起了许多人的担忧和关注：我国国债信用风险成因是什么?我国当前的国债信用风险状况究竟如何?我们应采取什么措施和办法来控制国债信用风险?本文拟对这些问题进行分析，尝试作出合理的解答。 第一部分，国债信用风险成因分析。首先，我们结合国债可持续和博弈论的思想，对我国国债信用风险成因进行总体分析。然后，我们对我国国债信用风险成因进行了分项分析。 第二部分，国债信用风险状况常规分析。在国债信用风险成因分析的基础上，我们从经济政治状况、名义国债状况、实际国债状况三个方面对我国国债信用风险进行了常规分析。其中，实际国债状况分析又包括其他政府债务状况和实际外债状况两个方面。 第三部分，国债信用风险状况综合分析。首先，在国债信用风险常规分析的基础上，我们建立了我国国债信用风险评价模型，对近年来我国国债信用风险变化进行了总体评价。国债信用风险评价指标的权重采用结合主观赋权和客观赋权的综合赋权法确定。我们也对我国国债信用风险和其他国家国债信用风险进行了国际比较。然后，结合灰色系统理论和情景分析的思想，我们对未来不同财政收支增长路径下2004年我国国债信用风险进行了资产负债分析。进行资产负债分析时，我们还探讨了国债不同期限结构、利息支付方式对未来我国国债信用风险的影响。 第四部分，国债信用风险控制。首先，我们提出了我国国债信用风险控制战略。然后，我们论述我国国债信用风险控制的总体措施。最后，我们讨论了我国国债信用风险控制的分项措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has been twenty years since central government recovered to issue national debt in 1981.The function of national debt can not be neglected in the economy development.In 1990’s, especially since central government carried out positive fiscal policy in 1998, the scale of national debt in China had increased quickly.Many people begin to concern about the situation of national debt credit risk in China.What are formation causes of national debt credit risk in China? How is national debt credit risk in China? What measures shall central government adopt to control the national debt credit risk? We will analyze these questions and try to provide some reasonable solutions.The first part is about analysis on formation causes of national debt credit risk. First, we generally analyze formation causes of national debt credit risk in China by means of national debt sustainability and game theory. Then, we discretely analyze formation causes of national debt credit risk in China.The second part is about routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China. First, on the basis of analysis on formation causes of national debt credit risk, we carry out routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China from three aspects of economy and politics condition, nominal national debt condition and real national debt condition. Real national debt condition analysis includes other government debt condition analysis and real foreign debt condition analysis.The third part is about comprehensive analysis on national debt credit risk. First, on the basis of routine analysis on national debt credit risk in China, we establish an integrative estimate model and use this model to evaluate the change of national debt credit risk in China these years. We determine evaluation indexes weights by way of synthetic weights determination, which combines entropy theory and analytic hierarchy process method. We also compare national debt credit risk of China with that of other countries.Then, on combination of grey system theory and scenario analysis, we carry out asset and liability analysis on the national debt credit risk in China in 2004 under different increasing paths of financial revenue and expenditure. In addition, we also study the influence of different maturity structures and interest payment modes on national debt credit risk.The fourth part is about national debt credit risk control. First, we constitute更多还原