【作者】 刘玉杰；

【导师】 张世英；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本文简要论述了全球国际工程承包市场概况及中国外经企业开拓国际工程承包市场的发展过程及现状,综述了企业战略管理的有关概念、过程、各学派观点、方法及研究现状,从企业层面和项目层面综述了国际工程投标决策分析理论的研究进展。对国际工程风险管理的有关概念、方法及过程进行了分析,归纳出了国际工程风险管理包括风险管理计划的制定、风险识别、风险估计、风险评价、风险应对、风险监控等六个步骤,并详细论述了各步骤的内容、理论方法及其研究现状。在分析期望值理论、期望效用理论及前景理论等风险理论基础上,质疑了期望效用理论在保险学上的应用,并用前景理论来解释保险业务,提出购买保险产品者的风险态度与典型人的风险态度不同,在面临收益时是风险偏好的,在面临损失时是风险规避的观点。对国际工程保险费率进行了风险分析,探讨并提出了建工一切险费率定价办法。从中国外经企业角度探讨了怎样做好国际工程保险。在探讨高斯影响图(GID)的概念、弧翻转、冗结点删除运算规则基础上,将GID中有向弧表示两个变量之间可能的相关性转化为风险因素对子成本项、子成本项对中间成本项及总成本项的线性影响程度,并针对国际工程投标决策分析,制定了系统的运算步骤,大大简化了原GID运算规则,进行了实证研究。针对外经企业确定国际工程专业发展战略优势度问题,建立了交叉影响网络模型(CINP)。该模型将外经企业开拓国际工程专业市场设定为成功与失败两种情况,运算程序分为三个阶段:第一阶段,用网络分析法(ANP)估计各工程专业成功与失败的重要性权重,第二阶段,用交叉影响矩阵(CIM)方法估计各工程专业的综合成功概率和综合失败概率,第三阶段,将各国际工程专业成功与失败的重要性权重分别乘以各专业的综合成功概率和综合失败概率,乘积之和便是各国际工程专业的发展战略优势度,并进行了实证研究。在中国外经企业的战略管理现状基础上,具体探讨了外经企业本地化管理、中国外经企业合并或者联盟、设备管理模式变革、国际工程调价管理等战略管理策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation briefly summarizes general situation of the global international project contracting, the course and current situation of Chinese international project contracting, then expatiates enterprise strategic management’s concepts, course, views of every genre, methods and current study situations, outlines the international project bidding decision analysis theory from the firm’s and single project’s perspective respectively.By differentiating and analyzing concepts, methods and processes of International project contracting risk management, this dissertation induces that the total risk management process can be divided into risk management plan establishing, risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk response, risk monitoring and controlling, with each stage’s scope, theory method and current study situation being discussed.Based on analyzing the expectation theory, expect utility theory and prospect theory, this dissertation oppugns the analysis of expect utility theory, uses prospect theory to interpret insurance, and pointes out that insurance buyer is risk seeking when facing gains and risk averse when facing lose, which is opposite to the typical risk attitude. It analyzes the risk of international project insurance pricing and sums up the insurance pricing method for international construction project. Then, it probes into how to do international project insurance from the overseas cooperation corporations’perspectives.By illustrating the concepts, arc revising, barren node deletion procedure, this dissertation transit the probable correlation of the arc coefficient to the linear influencing degree between the risk factor node and sub-cost item node, and summarizes a revised GID procedure for international project bidding decision analysis, which predigests the original GID procedure and being demonstrated in the end.To make certain the strategic development preferential weight, this dissertation brings forward the Cross-impact Network Process(CINP) model. CINP defines every international project category’s future situation as success or failure, then it proceeds into three stages, the first stage is to get the strategic development preferential weight of success and failure through ANP model, the second stage is to get the overall更多还原