【作者】 宁满秀；

【导师】 钟甫宁；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 在我国加入WTO以后，以小规模、分散经营为主要特点的农业经济脆弱性显得更加突出。同时，农业支持政策已经发生变化，农产品价格支持、出口补贴等政策已经明显受到限制，政府决策部门正在寻找符合WTO规则的可替代政策来对农业提供财政支持和保护。作为分散生产风险、弥补经济损失、稳定农民收入与促进农业发展的一种作用机制，农业保险及其补贴政策已成为国际上最重要的非价格农业保护工具之一，是WTO规则所允许的“绿箱政策”。 国外研究表明，农业保险制度既能分散农业生产风险、补偿农业生产损失，又能够通过影响农户生产行为，比如种植方式的变更、化学品投入量的变化而对农业生态环境产生正面或负面的影响。如果保险制度刺激农户施用更多的农用化学要素，从而引起生态环境的恶化，进而影响整个农业的进一步发展和增长。那么，长期来看，对农业保险进行财政补贴所带来的结果将有悖于保险本身的政策目标。显然，农业保险制度的环境效果取决于既定的社会、经济与环境条件以及特定的农业保险条款下农户对农用化学要素的施用决策。在我国大规模地推行农业保险制度之前，选择实施农业保险制度长达二十年之久的新疆玛纳斯河流域棉花保险为研究对象，探讨该制度的潜在环境含义，为将来我国建立既能分散农业生产风险、弥补农业生产损失，又能保护农业生态环境的农业政策提供较为科学的实证依据。同样地，农业保险制度的推广必须考虑规模经营，农业保险高展业成本和高额赔付使其经营成本过高，保险公司不断缩减农险业务；与此同时，农险的高费率与农户有限支付能力使得农户对农业保险的实际投保低下。农险供给与需求的双重不足最终导致效率损失，降低消费者剩余。农业保险市场失灵需要政府提供财政补贴以增加有效供给与需求，从而提高生产者福利与消费者福利。但是，政府补贴引发农户参保率及保险公司理赔额的变化，而参保率与理赔额的变化会引起化学要素施用量的变化，因此，需要通过考察不同补贴水平下农户对农业保险的支付意愿，并在此基础上模拟不同参保率与理赔额条件下农业保险补贴与环境之间的关系。 因此，本研究的总目标是：增强对现行农业保险制度效果，包括其对农户生产行更多还原

【Abstract】 The vulnerability of Chinese agricultural sector due to lack of economy of scale, especially that of bulk commodities, has become a hot topic after the country joining the WTO in 2002. With China entering into the WTO, both policy makers and relevant interested groups such as the economists and environmentalists are looking for alternative mechanism to protect fanners’ income and environment simultaneously under the "Green Box" framework. Restricted by China’s accession commitments that prohibit China from supporting agriculture with price and export subsidies, alternative policy measures have been sought by the government in accordance with WTO rules. Budget subsidies to crop insurance, as one of the most important non-price security systems under the "Green Box" framework, has been advocated at the expectations of stimulating production against risk, and providing more stable and perhaps higher income to farmers.However, as some previous studies have shown, crop insurance might encourage more or less application of agrochemicals and hence bring negative or positive impact on the environment and future growth of agriculture. If it affect environment negatively, the outcome of subsidizing crop insurance may contradict to its policy goals in the long run. It is obvious that the potential environmental impact of crop insurance depends on farmers’ decisions with regard to agrochemical application under current social, economic, and environment conditions. This study tries to explore if farmers’ decision of crop insurance participation is simultaneously made with that of agrochemical application, and if so, to what extent it may impact the environment. This paper chooses cotton insurance which has been practiced for 20 years in Manas watershed to analyze the environmental implications of the current crop insurance program, and to provide some empirical evidence for constructing agricultural policies, which could not only avert agricultural risk, compensate更多还原