【作者】 喻翠玲；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 在全球化背景下，中国大豆产业几乎完全市场化。虽然近年来，我国大豆生产有所发展，主要体现在大豆种植面积略有恢复，大豆总产量稳步提高。但由于消费增长速度远远大于生产增长速度，加入WTO前，我国大豆消费就在很大程度上依赖进口。自1996我国由大豆出口国变为净进口国后，进口量一路攀升，近两年每年的总进口量(包括原豆、豆油、豆粕)均超过2500万吨，我国大豆消费对国际大豆市场依赖度已接近或超过60％。由于可以依赖进口大豆，在国内大豆消费剧增的时候，我国大豆生产并没有得到发展的动力，即消费并没有促进生产。 本文将我国大豆产业放在经济全球化的大背景下，分析我国大豆生产和贸易的现状与存在的问题，为我国大豆参与国际竞争，大豆种植农户应对国际化挑战作基础性的理论研究工作，并力图在大豆产业竞争力方面提供既具有理论深度，又便于实际操作的对策建议。 本文首先系统描述了国际大豆市场价格形成机制与各国的大豆产业政策。然后分别分析了中国大豆市场与国际大豆市场，中国国内大豆市场一体化程度；中国大豆产出增长效率，农户对大豆收购价格的反应与大豆农户的作物选择行为；大豆生产的地区比较优势；我国大豆及相关产品进出口贸易以及我国大豆产业的贸易选择；最后从生产、贸易彼此协调的角度提出了完整的对策措施。 本文研究结果表明，目前，美国、巴西和阿根廷是全球重要的大豆生产国和出口国，其中，美国和巴西也是世界大豆价格的决定者，阿根廷对世界大豆价格有一定的发言权和影响力。中国目前是世界第一大大豆进口国。国际大豆价格三大构成要素分别是生产成本、国内市场运输成本和国际运输成本，低廉的生产成本和国内运输体系改进后带来的运费降低是巴西和阿根廷大豆出口快速增加的主要原因。产业政策、库存消费比、汇率、豆粕和豆油及大豆替代品、气候条件、市场结构和转基因技术都会影响到大豆价格，但生产成本依然是决定大豆价格长期走向的重要因素。对于没有足够财力支持保护大豆产业的发展中国家而言，创造一个良好的、有利的发展环境对大豆竞争力的提升是很重要的。 国内大豆市场(北京、河北、江苏、山西、浙江、湖北、山东和新疆市场批发价格)和美国海湾市场(FOB价格)及美国芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT大豆期货价格)的误差修正模型估计结果表明，国内各个大豆市场价格对美国海湾FOB价格模型均衡修正系数均是显著的，除北京外，所有大豆市场对CBOT大豆期货价格的回归均衡修正项的系数显著，这一方面验证了国内大豆市场和国际大豆市场之间确更多还原

【Abstract】 The soybean industry has almost marketized under economic globalization in China. Though in these years, China’ s soybean production has developed with planting area resuming slightly and total soybean output increasing steadily. Chinese soybean consumption depended on import in a great extent before entering WTO because that the growth rate of consumption was far greater than the growth rate of production. China turn from soybean exporter into a soybean net importer in 1996 and from then the soybean import increases dramatically, the annual soybean total import (includes soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal) in 2004 or 2005 was over 25 million tons. The degree of China’s soybean consumption to international market has been close or exceeded 60%.The dissertation analyze the situation and problem of soybean production and trade in China under the global economy integration and makes basic research work for Chinese soybean industry participating in international competition and how the soybean farmers deal with the internationalization challenge, and tries hard to provide one set of practical scheme which also has the depth of theory in enhancing the competitiveness of soybean industry.First, the dissertation describe the international soybean price mechanism and soybean industry policies in some foreign countries systematically. Secondly, analyze the integrated intensity between China soybean markets and international soybean markets and between the domestic markets; the soybean output increase efficiency in China; supply response of soybean crops and farmers choosing behavior for different crops; regional comparative advantage in soybean crops planting; Chinese soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil imports and exports and trade choice for soybean in China. Finally, the dissertation puts forward intact settlement countermeasure from the view of soybean production and trade that coordinate each other.Now America, Brazil and Argentina are the important countries of soybean production and export in the world, America and Brazil decide international soybean price and Argentina makes some influence to international soybean price. China is the biggest soybean importer in the world now. The constituent element of world soybean price include production cost, domestic market transports cost and international transportation cost, and the low production cost and the reduction of transports cost due to domestic transports improving contribute to soybean export increase in Brazil and Argentina. though the international soybean price fluctuates frequently, soybean industry policy, stock-consumption rate, exchange rate, soybean meal, soybean oil and soybean substitute, climatic conditions, market structure and transgenic technology all will更多还原