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中国森林生态服务功能动态分析与仿真预测

Dynamic Analysis and Simluated Forecast of Forest Ecosystem Services in China

【作者】 鲁绍伟

【导师】 余新晓;

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 , 水土保持与荒漠化防治, 2006, 博士

【摘要】 客观评价森林生态系统服务功能价值动态变化,对于科学经营与管理森林资源具有重要的现实意义。本研究采用物质量结合价值量的研究方法,利用全国第四次(1989-1993)、第五次(1994-1998)、第六次(1999-2003)资源清查资料、我国森林生态系统观测资料、净生产力动态变化、价格变量参数、我国森林“十一五”和中长期发展规划对我国森林生态系统服务功能进行动态分析与仿真预测,其目的都是引起人们对区域生态系统服足够的重视,其评价研究能促进环境核算,将其纳入国民经济核算体系,最终实现绿色GDP,从而促进可持续发展。该项研究的主要成果如下:随着我国六大生态工程的实施,生态环境的改善,天然林资源总量增加,树种结构逐渐趋于合理,树木生长率及其森林健康质量的提高,所以森林生态系统所提供的服务功能总量及其单位面积价值量逐步提高。1993、1998、2003年我国森林生态系统7类生态系统服务功能的总生态经济价值分别为21411.80×10~8元、36433.26×10~8元、41237.23×10~8元,分别占当年GDP的98.81%、91.73%和71.82%。1998、2003年我国森林生态系统7类生态系统服务功能的总生态经济价值分别比1993年提高70.16%、92.59%。如果按照价值构成来进行比较,本项研究得到1993、1998、2003年我国森林生态系统服务功能的直接经济价值分别为468.19×10~8元、1110~.94×10~8元、1421.54×10~8元。间接经济价值分别为20943.60×10~8元、35322.32×10~8元、39815.69×10~8元;1993、1998、2003年间接经济价值是直接经济价值的28倍以上。上述结果表明,森林生态系统为人类提供的间接经济价值远远大于直接产品价值。从我国森林生态系统1993、1998、2003年各项服务功能所提供的价值量来看,1993年森林生态系统各项服务功能所提供价值量排序为:固碳>净化环境>涵养水源>土壤保持>养分循环>林木、林副产品等>维持生物多样性;1998年森林生态系统各项服务功能所提供价值量排序为:涵养水源>固碳>净化环境>土壤保持>养分循环>林木、林副产品等>维持生物多样性;2003年森林生态系统各项服务功能所提供价值量排序为:涵养水源>固碳>净化环境>土壤保持>林木、林副产品等>养分循环>维持生物多样性。随着生态环境的改善力度的加大、水库库容成本的增加,森林生态系统涵养水源服务功能价值由1993年的第三位跃居到1998、2003年的第一位,林木、林副

【Abstract】 It has important significance for scientifically managing and running forest resources to evaluate the dynamic changes of the service function of forestry ecosystem system . By collecting national fourth(1989-1993)、fifth(1994-1998)、sixth(1999-2003)forest resource inventory data, observation data from domestic forestry ecological system, the dynamic change of NPP, the parameter of change price and domestic forestry“eleventh five plan”, medium and long-playing development blueprint and combining the substance quantityi and the value quantity, we dynamically analyze and simulately forecast domestic the service function of forestr ecosystem, which aims to arose public’s concern for regional ecosystem system, to promote environment audit , to take it into the account of national economy audit system , to realize green GDP finally so as to accelerate sustainable development .Since the implementation of our six major ecosystem projects, the improvement of the ecological environment, the total increase in natural forest resources, tree species have gradually becomed rational structure, tree growth rates and the quality of forest health have been improved, the total magnitude of value and unit area forest ecosystem function have been gradually improved. In 1993, 1998 and 2003 our forest ecosystem seven categories ecosystem services of the total economic value of 21411.80×10~8 yuan, 36433.26×10~8 yuan and 41237.23×10~8 yuan respectively, which has separately took up 98.81%、91.73% and 71.82% of GDP.In the 1998 and 2003 year the total ecological and economic value of our forest ecosystems’seven categories ecosystem services respectively over 70.16% and 92.59% than 1993. If a value for comparison purposes by 1993, 1998 and 2003, the direct economic value of forest ecosystem services is 468.19×10~8 yuan, 1110~.94×10~8yuan and 1421.54×10~8yuan., and the indirect economic value respective is 20943.60×10~8yuan, 35322.32×10~8yuan and 39815.69×10~8 yuan, which are 28 times more than direct economic value,which indicate that, forest ecosystems not only provides the direct values, but also provides significantly indirect economic value, and the indirect value provides more help for mankind than the value of forest products.Through the value changes of the forest ecosystems in 1993, 1998 and 2003, among contributions of value of all ecosystem services in 1993, the order of big and small is below: C fixation >air quality purifying >water storage >erosion control >nutrients cycle>timber and other products>provisioning of

  • 【分类号】S718.56
  • 【被引频次】107
  • 【下载频次】2347
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