【作者】 钟小明；

【导师】 刘小明；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 汽车交通给人们的出行带来了方便的同时,也给人们的安全带来严峻的挑战。平面交叉口是路网中重要的结点,在路网中发挥着非常重要的功能。平面交叉口的安全直接关系到路网的安全性能,关系到路网运行效率的发挥。研究平面交叉口的安全性,探索其事故发生机理,在交通安全领域内是个重要的议题。平面交叉口区域面积虽然只占道路总面积中很小的一部分,但是其事故比重却很显著,研究其安全性极为紧迫。本文正是依托交通部2003年西部地区公路交通安全评价和2004年公路交通安全应用技术研究两个重大项目关于平面交叉口安全的子课题,并且更进一步从理论方面纵深研究平面交叉口安全性能和安全技术。公路平面交叉路口之所以容易成为交通事故相对集中的地方,有两个非常重要的原因:一个原因是驾驶行为与道路设计指标不协调。交通流在平面交叉口区域形成冲突点、合流点和分流点,交通流在这些点的运行特性存在特殊性。驾驶员在平面交叉口区域行驶需要进行复杂的判断和决策,如果某个设计指标不协调则有可能出现人、车、路和环境动态系统失调,驾驶员复杂的操作过程可能会破坏人机环境的稳定性,从而导致事故。另外一个原因是交通行为参与者安全意识薄弱以致于频繁违章违法。导致违章与事故一样有深刻的根源,很有可能是设计或者控制方式不能满足人性化设计的基准。正是由于这两个原因,伴随着驾驶员复杂的判断和决策过程,使得探索交叉口事故的发生机理也异常复杂。本文正是在这方面进行的探索性研究工作。本文研究对象为公路三支无信号交叉口安全模型。本文研究的目的主要有两个:一是探求交叉口事故的统计特性,提出预测交叉口安全性能的模型;二是在这个模型的指引下,进一步在理论上探讨交叉口事故和违章的机理,重点探讨可接受间隙、等候时间与驾驶行为三者之间的关系,从视距设计、控制和管理对策上提出避免高危驾驶行为的设计方法。本文从分析事故和违章的现象入手,从事故发生的机理上探索驾驶行为的安全特性,构建成套的交通安全模型。这些安全模型具体内容包括:交通事故预测模型、可接受间隙特性模型、等候时间与期望的可接受间隙理论关系模型、安全设计参数选择模型。这套模型组,彼此之间相互关联,存在逻辑与应用环节的承接关系。本文希望能通过模型组为将来这方面的研究工作提供一种方法和思路。交通事故预测模型是进行交通安全分析的重要工具,目前国内外还在不断完善和修正模型。本文在模型的自变量的选择过程中,在借鉴前人经验的基础上,独创性地增加了表征人对交通流间隙反应的指标、干扰交叉口交通运行的指标;分析过程中结合了主成分分析法来提取相关影响因素,这样比主观地直接选择某更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of highway brings a lot of benefits for us. But unfortunately, people have to face the serious situation of challenge due to surging traffic crashes. From 2003-About 10,000 people killed in traffic crashes every year in China. How to reduce the fatality rate and protect people from traffic crashes is an important task for safety researchers and traffic engineers.Intersections are important net nodes in the road system. They play very important functions in the whole system. Their safety performance is associated with the roadway safety directly and affects roadway operating efficiency. Studies on intersection safety can help us to explore crashes mechanism, which is a vital theme in traffic safety field.Although intersection area only occupies a small fraction of the whole length of road, crashes proportion within intersection areas is pretty higher. Research on intersections’safety becomes more urgent. This dissertation is supported by the subsidiary programs on intersection safety of two important projects of the Ministry of Communications of China, which are“Highway safety audit of western area”of 2003 programs, and“Research on Highway safety application technology”of 2004 programs.Some intersections are prone to crashes because of two main reasons. The first one is that, drive behaviors are not in harmony with road design parameters. Traffic flow interweave mutually and bring out conflict points, merging points and diverging points in intersection area, which makes a great difference with that of basic segment of a highway. Drivers need complicated maneuvers and decision-making before entering intersection area. If a certain design parameter is not coordinated with driver behaviors, it will lead to maladjustment of dynamic system of human, vehicle, road and environment. Drivers’faults may destroy stability of the system combined with human, vehicle, and environment. Hence induce crashes during complicated operating process. The other reason is that some people don’t comply with the traffic rules. It is an essential causation of crashes. A possible explaining for why people disobey traffic rule is that the design parameters or control style don’t fit road user’s prevailing demands. Just for these two main reasons and drivers’complicated judgments’processes, result in explore intersection crashes mechanism much more complicated. The dissertation will concentrate on this field.The subject of this dissertation is three-leg intersections with unsignalized control in highway system. There are two main objectives: One is to discuss crashes statistical characteristics and carry out a method to predict safety performance. The second one is that make further discussion on crashes inherent mechanism, especially on relationship between of driving behavior, waiting time and acceptance gap. Then the author will offer suggestions to some design methods to avoid dangerous drive behaviors.This dissertation based on the analysis of crashes and phenomenona of regulation-broken activities. With exploring driver’safety behaviors and crashes更多还原