【作者】 李柯；

【导师】 朱美琪；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计制造， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济结构的调整，西部大开发和可持续发展战略的实施，我国内河运输在经历了一段时期的衰退后，重又获得新的发展机遇。近两年来内河运输有了较大的发展，但内河运输的进一步发展也面临着诸多矛盾：日益增长的运输需求与有限运输供给之间的矛盾；环境承载力与环境污染之间的矛盾；运输高速化与运输安全之间的矛盾；内河运输基础设施建设与社会资源有限性之间的矛盾以及当代人利益与后代人利益之间的矛盾等等。这些日益激化的矛盾迫切需要一种新的发展模式来协调，可持续发展背景下提出的内河运输可持续发展模式成为大家的共识。然而，内河运输如何走可持续发展道路，目前还处于探索阶段，有关研究基本上停留在概念、理念、政策分析层面，缺乏对内河运输可持续发展的有效评价手段，既没有给出科学的界定，也无法指导实际操作，不足以指导我国内河运输的可持续发展。 本论文将可持续发展理论以及现代应用数学、系统工程、信息管理等学科所取得的研究成果引入到内河运输可持续发展的研究中，为内河运输走可持续发展道路提供决策依据。 论文对可持续发展理论进行了全面分析，分析了行业可持续发展与区域可持续发展的异同；提出了内河运输可持续发展的定义、内涵和发展目标。从系统的角度全面分析了内河运输系统的构成、特性以及影响内河运输可持续发展的主要因素，在此基础上设计了评价、描述、考核内河运输可持续发展的指标体系；探讨了内河运输可持续发展指标体系的评价思路和方法，针对发展类、中性类和制约类三种不同类型的指标，提出采用功效系数法进行归一化处理，利用层次分析法、加权平均法和水桶原理进行综合评价；研究了指数平滑和灰色系统等时间序列预测模型以及回归预测模型在内河运输可持续发展预警中的应用；并运用上述理论和方法对某区域内河运输可持续发展进行了实证研究。 内河运输可持续发展涉及面广，信息处理量大，要真正实现内河运输可持续发展的监测、评价和预警，必须借助于信息技术。为此，论文构造了全新的内河运输可持续发展预警决策支持系统(IWTEWDSS：Inland Water Transport Early Warning Decision Support System)总体框架。它不同于传统的DSS基更多还原

【Abstract】 With the adjustment of economic structure in our country, the great development of the western, and the execution of the strategy of sustainable development, inland water transport of our country has gained the opportunity to develop again after a period of decline. In recent two years, inland water transport has greatly developed. However, the progressive development of inland water transport faces many contradictions, such as the contradiction of increasing transport demand and the limited transport supply; the contradiction of environment bearing capacity and environment pollution; the contradiction of transport’s efficiency and transport’s safety; the contradiction of the basic facilities construction in inland water transport and the limitation of social resources ; the contradiction of the benefits between the present generation and the later generation, and so on. These increasingly intensified contradictions need to be harmonized with a new pattern of development. The pattern of sustainable development based on the background of sustainable development is Well accepted by everybody. But how inland water transport develops in the direction of sustainable development is still in the stage of learning the ropes. Relevant research is restricted to the level of conception、 thought、 policy analysis, which is lack of effective evaluation on the sustainable development of inland water transport. The research can neither give scientific definition nor instruct practical operation, which is not enough to instruct our country’s inland water transport sustainable development.This paper introduces the theory of sustainable development and research work of modern applied mathematics, system engineering and information management to the above research., thus providing decision support for inland water transport sustainable development.This paper has a full analysis on the theory of sustainable development .and points out the differences and similarities between profession sustainable ? development and region sustainable development. It puts forward the definition 、 connotation and development goal of inland water transport sustainable development. It also systematically and fully analyses the structure and characteristics of inland water transport system and the main factors influencing the inland water更多还原