【作者】 阎卫东；

【导师】 陈宝智；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 综观近年来国内外重大人员伤亡事故几乎都与人员行为和疏散时间密切相关，如何有效预防和减少火灾及其他突发事件人员伤亡，尤其是防止群死群伤火灾事故的发生，已成为当前国内外公共安全工作的重中之重。迄今为止，针对中国人的火灾心理和行为做的调查研究和实验研究很少，以至于中国的建筑防火性能化设计不得不用国外数据作为参照。 论文综合运用安全科学和心理学、行为学、社会学等理论和方法，通过问卷调查和疏散演习开展了建筑物火灾时人员行为规律及疏散时间方面的研究，为火灾时人员应急疏散计划和建筑防火性能化设计提供依据。 以在校大学生为对象，前后组织了3次问卷调查，收回有效问卷3444份，获得近100万个调查数据；开展了二次火灾应急疏散演习，参加演习人员达到4200多人，测量个体疏散运动时间2300多个记录，采集了大量的疏散现场数据和资料。无论是问卷数量和演习规模，还是获得信息的数量和可信程度，在国内都是空前的。在此基础上，应用二分类Logistic回归、有序多分类Logistic回归、无序多分类Logistic回归、两独立样本t检验、单因素方差分析、多元线性回归等统计分析方法，对建筑物火灾时人员心理和行为规律进行了分析研究。 研究发现，距离安全目的地较远、认知水平较低、女性、完整家庭的人员从众心理较强、疏散决策时间较长；同样疏散距离的情况下，女性、18岁以下的人员、情绪型人员和认知水平较低人员应急疏散花费时间较多，这些人群是应急教育训练的重点。 采取向后逐步筛选策略多元回归分析，建立应急疏散时间与各影响因素之间的回归模型。发现性别、消防培训和消防演练3个因素对应急疏散时间影响显著，在火灾疏散演习的条件下，应急疏散时间可以表达为： 人员应急疏散运动时间(T)=0.232+0.242所在楼层因子+0.147 性别因子+0.079消防培训因子-0.136消防演练因子。更多还原

【Abstract】 Viewing from recent years’ heavy casualties at home and abroad, most of which are closely connected with human behavior and evacuation time, so how to effectively prevent and reduce fire and casualties of other sudden accidents, especially prevention from fire accidents of mass injuries and death has become the most important issue in the work of public security at home and abroad at present. So far the investigation and experimental research aiming at fire mentality and behavior of Chinese are few, so that building performance-based fire safety design in China has to adopt foreign data for reference.The paper comprehensively applies such theories and methods as safety science and psychology, behavior, sociology, etc., carries out study on law of human behavior and evacuation time when buildings are on fire through questionnaire and evacuation drill, and provides basis for fire emergency evacuation plan for personnel and building performance-based fire safety design.Taking students under university education as targets, the questionnaire has been organized three times successively, 3444 valid questionnaires have been withdrawn, and nearly one million investigation data have been obtained. The fire emergency evacuation drill has been carried out twice, involving more than 4200 persons under participation. More than 2300 records of individual evacuation movement time have been measured, and a large number of data and materials at the evacuation site have been collected. They are unprecedented in China both on the quantity of questionnaires and scale of drill, and the quantity and reliability of information acquired. On the basis of which, the paper makes analysis and research on the law of mentality and behavior of human when the buildings are on fire by statistical analysis methods such as Binary Logistic Regression, Polytomous Logistic Regression, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Two Independent Samples T Test, One-way Analysis of Variance, Multiple Linear Regression, and so on.Through research It is found that the longer one stays from the safe destination, the lower cognition level one owns; the mentality of obeying others are stronger among personnel of female and single-parent family and the time for evacuation decision takes longer; under the circumstances of same evacuation distance, female, people under 18 years old, emotionalism, people with lower cognition level take more更多还原