【作者】 陈德宁；

【导师】 沈玉芳；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 在遵循“一国两制”方针和WTO规则前提下，2003年6月和10月中央政府与香港和澳门政府先后签署了《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》和《内地和澳门关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(Closer Economic Partnership Arragement between Hongkong and Mainland of China & Closer Economic Partnership Arragement between Macao and Mainland of China，简称CEPA)。CEPA于2004年1月1日开始实施，涵盖了货物贸易、服务贸易和贸易投资便利化三方面内容，总目标是提高香港、澳门与内地之间的经贸合作水平，实现共同发展。CEPA的签署，从制度上标志了包括香港、澳门和珠江三角洲经济区在内的大珠江三角洲经济区(简称“大珠三角”)正式成立。与国内其他地区相比，“大珠三角”因其历史、地理、社会和文化的渊源，加上以往20多年的合作基础以及服务业与生产性企业的内在联系，将成为CEPA的最大受益者。 本论文运用了演化经济动力学、系统科学和计量经济学等基本方法，从“大珠三角”经济发展的历史基础视角，对CEPA后的区域经济格局变化进行了详细分析，并通过探讨其动力机制，构建了相关理论框架和动力模式，并在此基础上，就区域经济格局变化进行了预测和展望，就政府、企业、民间组织如何共同促进区域经济一体化进程提出了可行性建议，以期在CEPA这一全新特征的框架下探讨“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化的新规律和新走向，为学科建设和创新服务，为现实需求服务。 本论文的研究内容主要分为四大部分：第一部分包括第一章和第二章，重点就区域经济格局变化和动力机制两大概念进行理论基础和实证研究的述评，并就“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化动力机制的研究动态进行了归纳。第二部分对“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化的历史进程和现状的动力特征进行了研究。其中，第三章重点就前两个历史阶段区域经济格局变化动力的特征进行了分析，第四章对第三阶段的“竞合”动力特征进行了探讨。第三部分特别就CEPA框架下“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化的动力机制与动力模式进行了论证，为本论文的重点，包括第五章和第六章。其中，第五章应用经济增长理论、国际贸易与投资理论和产业结构理论等，构建了四个经济格局变化的计量模型，通过动力因素之间关系的分析，推断出了该区域经济格局变化动力机制的动力因素、内在机理和综合动力结构，由此构建起CEPA框架下“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化的动力机制模型；第六章以区域制度合作为导向，区域创新为核心建立起了新的动力模式。第四部分为研究结果的总结，包括第七章和第八章。其中，第七章主要对2000-2020年的“大珠三角”区域经济格局变化进行了预测分析，同时，对“大珠三角”辐更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the policy of "One Country Two Systems" and the rule of the WTO, the Chinese Central Government subscribed a Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between Mainland and Hong Kong (CEPA) and Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between Mainland and Macao (CEPA) with the governments of the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macao respectively in June, 2003 and October, 2003.Consequently, CEPA has been put in effect since ten first day of January, 2004. It includes goods trade, service trade and facilitation of trade and investment, with aims to promote further co-operations in trade so as to achieve coordinated development between Hong Kong, Macao and Mainland. The signing of the CEPA institutionally marks the formation of the Great Pearl River Delta Economic Zone ("The Great Pearl River Delta Area" or GPRDA for short) which includes Hong Kong, Macao and the Pearl River Delta economic zone. Because of their historical, geographical, social and cultural origins, coupled with the foundation of economic cooperation during the past 20 years, and organic links between the service sector and the productive enterprises, compared with the other areas of the country, the GPRDA will be the biggest beneficiaries of the CEPA.From the historical foundation perspective of the GPRDA in economic development, this thesis using the economic evolution, system dynamics and econometric approaches to analyzes changes of the regional economic pattern of the GPRDA after the introduction of the CEPA. Through an in-depth investigation of its dynamic mechanism, this thesis builds up a theoretical framework and a relatively new impetus model, and based on this, discusses changes of the regional economic pattern in evolutionary process. Finally, the thesis puts forward some suggestions which are feasible concerning how the governments, business bodies and civil organizations can joint to facilitate the regional economic integration in progress in order to explore the new laws and direction in the change of the GPRDA’s regional economic pattern under the brand-new-featured framework of the CEPA, and to meet with the objective needs in regional development on one hand and theoretical achievements on the other.Structurally, it contains four main parts: the first part consists of Chapter I and Chapter II, including the introduction, and reviews of the existing researches and relative theories, with focus on changes of the regional economic pattern and their更多还原