我国房地产经济波动与金融风险防范研究

【作者】 郝丁；

【导师】 张合金；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 房地产业是我国国民经济的重要支柱产业之一,2003年我国GDP增长率为9.3%,房地产开发投资的贡献率达到了4.0%;房地产业又是资金密集型产业,与金融体系关系密切。据统计,到2004年,我国房地产开发中使用银行贷款的比重达到55%以上,2004年个人住房贷款新增4073亿元。然而房地产经济具有波动性,其波动必然冲击金融体系,产生巨大的金融风险。控制不当,还容易酿成金融危机。因此,对我国房地产经济波动与金融风险防范问题进行深入研究,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文研究的主要内容如下:第一章:房地产经济波动理论。本章对房地产经济波动的内涵、分类、波动的形成机理、波动的效应、影响因素和传导途径等进行了分析。从长期看,房地产经济的发展呈现出向上增长的趋势。而房地产经济波动则围绕长期增长趋势上下起伏、振荡;房地产经济波动可分为房地产经济周期波动与异常波动。二者的主要区别在于:异常波动产生于非理性的投机行为,周期波动则产生于房地产投资行为和理性的投机行为;异常波动没有规律性,其扩张、收缩的持续时间短。而周期波动围绕长期趋势呈现规律性的扩张、收缩,波动持续的时间相对较长;影响房地产经济周期波动的因素有投资、投资收益率、货币信用、利率、汇率和通货膨胀率。此外还有经济体制、政策因素、经济增长方式、产业结构演进、城市化进程和技术进步等。导致异常波动的因素有:金融资产的扩张,国际游资冲击,信息技术在交易中的应用,经济规范失衡,基金经理人的投机行为,蓬齐(Pons)融资,群体行为和道德风险等;房地产经济异常波动可产生财富效应、风险效应、产业结构效应、社会福利效应、收入分配效应和资本流动效应等社会经济效应。第二章:金融风险的形成机制。本章对金融风险与金融危机的内涵、产生的基础、影响因素、形成与传导机制等问题进行了分析。金融风险具有客观性、扩张性、多样性、可管理性、高传染性和强破坏性等特点;金融风险是金融危机的基础,风险是量的积累,是量变过更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry is one of important pillar industries of our national economy. In 2003, our country GDP rate of increment is 9.3%, but the technical progress factor of the property development & investment has achieved 4.0%.The real estate industry also is a fund intensity industry, is close with the financial system. Statistics indicated that, to 2004, the proportion using the bank loan in our country property development has achieved above 55%. Individual housing loan grows year by year, the increasing volume has amounted to 403.7 billion Yuan in 2004. The real estate and the macroscopic economy are same,not the steady development, have the undulation. The real estate economy undulation attacks the financial system inevitably, produce the huge financial risk. If controlled improperly, also is easy to breed the financial crisis. In 1993, Hainan real estate bubbles were disillusioned, the credit fund precipitation amounted to more than 80 billion Yuan, caused Hainan Development Bank closed, and brought disaster to the financial institutions of national other provinces and cities. In 1994, Beihai real estate bubbles were disillusioned; the credit fund precipitation amounted to 16 billion Yuan.The main contents of the paper as follows:Chapter 1: Undulatory theory of real estate economy. This chapter carries on the analysis to the connotation, classification, formation mechanism of undulation, effect of undulation, influencing factors and conduction way of real estate economy undulation and so on. Looked for a long time, the real estate economy development presents the upward growth tendency. But real estate economy then revolves about the long-term growth tendency to fluctuate and vibrate. The real estate economy undulation may divide into the real estate economical cycle and exceptional undulation. The two main differences lies in: Exceptional undulation produces in the non-rational congenial behavior, the cyclical更多还原