中国经济高增长与高失业并存问题研究

【作者】 王艾青；

【导师】 赵增耀；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本研究基于这样的背景：中国经济高速增长的同时失业率却居高不下，甚至不断攀升。对于这一与一般经济理论和一般经济规律相悖现象产生的原因，学界有所探寻并取得较好理论成果，但不够深入且缺乏系统性与综合性。本研究以现有研究成果为基础，并克服现有研究成果的不足，对中国经济高增长与高失业并存的现象提供一个完整的解释。在此基础上，逻辑地推导出减少失业的政策建议。因此既具有理论意义，又具有一定的现实意义。研究采取实证分析与规范分析的方法。 本研究包括以下主要内容：中国经济增长与失业关系分析；中国经济增长模式及其就业增长效应分析；经济转型对失业的影响分析；过度劳动与失业的关系分析；降低失业率的对策建议。 通过分析得出以下几点结论，其中包含笔者的创新之处： (1)中国经济增长率与失业率之间未呈现反方向变动关系，奥肯定律出现变异，尤其是近几年来经济高增长与高失业并存。 (2)对于高增长高失业并存这一现象，本文认为不能用某种单一的理论给以完全解释，而须从中国经济增长本身和失业的特殊性方面去寻求答案。 (3)中国经济高增长与高失业并存与以下几种因素有关：①中国经济增长模式。中国经济增长模式是一种资本驱动增长模式，经济增长主要由资本增长推动，依赖的是资本高投入。由于投资逐渐向资本密集型产业集中，从而导致资本深化和资本就业弹性的下降。资本就业弹性的下降意味着资本在推动经济增长的同时，吸纳就业的能力在不断弱化，甚至出现了资本排挤就业的情况。经济增长与就业增长之间传导链条断裂，经济增长的就业弹性下降。经济增长的就业弹性下降说明，虽然经济增长带动了就业的增加，但经济增长带来的就业增长却在减少，即经济增长吸纳就业的能力呈弱化态势。中国出现资本深化，既与中国所处发展阶段(工业化加速发展)有关，又与资源配置机制有关，另外，要素价格的人为扭曲也是重要原因。②经济转型。中国正处于由计划经济向市场经济转型的过程之中，因此经济增长与失业的关系便带有转型经济的特征。经济转型不断显化原有计划经济体制下的隐性失业，造成城市失业问题的凸现和失业率的迅速上升；同时，隐性失业的显性化提高了效率，带来了产出的增长。③过度劳动。分析认为，中国许多行业都存在过度劳动现象，从业人员的过度劳动造成了很多就业机会被挤占，从而造成一些具有就业能力的人员的失业；而同时过度劳动并不更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is based on the following background in regard to China’s economy: the unemployment rate remains high and even keeps rising while the economy grows fast. The causes of this phenomenon which is in conflict with the general economic theory and principles have been discussed in the academic field. The results are not profound and systematic although they are sound. This paper, on the basis of the current research, supplies a comprehensive explanation for the phenomenon, and logically proposes suggestions for promoting economic growth and reducing unemployment. Empirical method and prescriptive method are taken in this paper.This paper is composed of the following aspects: analysis on the relationship between China’s economic growth and unemployment; the influence of China’s economic growth pattern on economic growth and employment; the influence of economic transition on economic growth and unemployment; the influence of over-utilization of labor force on unemployment; suggestions for promoting economic growth and reducing unemployment.The conclusions are as follows including the author’s creative and innovative opinions:1, Economic growth rate and unemployment rate of China don’t move in an adverse direction, namely Okun’s Law does not exist in China. Especially during these recent years, high economic growth is accompanied by high unemployment.2, Explanations for this phenomenon are not in any certain economic theory but should be sought from the special feature of the economic growth and the unemployment of China.3, Coexistence of high economic growth and high unemployment in China is related with several factors: ①Economic growth pattern. Different growth patterns differ in their employment-creation effects. China’s economic growth is generally driven by capital. With capital being concentrated on capital-incentive industries, however, capital deepening occurs and hence the drop of Employment Elasticity of Capital, which means the decline of employment absorption ability of capital; Economic growth—employment chain breaks up, and the Employment Elasticity of Growth falls, which means the decline of employment absorption ability of economic growth. Therefore, high economic growth does not inevitably bring about low unemployment, or rise in economic growth rate does not inevitably lead to drop in更多还原