【作者】 文俊；

【导师】 郑垂勇；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 可持续发展是关系人类前途和命运并为当今国际社会普遍关注的重大问题,水资源作为基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,它的可持续利用是经济社会可持续发展重要保障。如何使有限的水资源得到可持续利用,并事先依据一定的理论和技术给出警告与提示即预警,以科学合理地指导水资源开发利用,促进经济社会的可持续发展。因此,开展区域水资源可持续利用预警系统的研究具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文在可持续发展理论的指导下,对区域水资源可持续利用预警系统进行了尝试性和开拓性的研究,主要研究工作和研究成果如下: (1) 通过对区域水资源可持续利用预警系统、预警指标体系、警素、警度、警源与警兆等概念的全面分析与深度开发,初步形成具有专业特色与行业特点的区域水资源可持续利用预警系统概念框架。 (2) 通过对区域水资源可持续利用预警系统的理论基础、预警原理和调控机制的深入研究,初步构建了既符合水资源属性特点,又满足预警系统要求的区域水资源可持续利用预警系统理论体系。 (3) 通过对区域水资源可持续利用预警的综合评价方法的概念内涵和发生背景的研究,提出了区域水资源可持续利用预警的警度划分方法和警兆识别方法。 (4) 在构建的区域水资源可持续利用预警指标体系的基础上,提出用区域水资源可持续利用预警指数进行预警,以对比判断法进行警度划分,应用人工神经网络方法建模,建立了区域水资源可持续利用预警模型,经过模型训练和精度检测,表明模型具有较高的精度。 (5) 通过对预警系统研建的必要性和可行性的探讨,对预警系统的技术系统及其组织实施的制约因素进行了全面分析和研究,应用面向对象技术,研发了区域水资源可持续利用预警软件。 (6) 开展了区域水资源可持续利用预警系统的实证分析。利用研究成果,指导元阳制定了水利发展“十一五”规划,提出了调控策略和具体措施,将使元阳哈尼梯田的水资源开发利用由轻警向无警趋势转化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, sustainable development is a significant issue which is related to the future and destiny of people, and the international society pay more and more attention to it. Water resource as the foundational natural resource and the strategic economical resource, is the important safeguard of the economic society sustainable development. The forecasting & warning system is built to give us how to make good use of the limited water resource and give warning beforehand according to some certain theory and technology, which in order to reasonably instruct the exploitation of water resource, and make the sustainable development of economic society. Therefore, researching in the forecasting & warning system of the sustainable- utilization of region water resources has the extremely important theoretic and practical meaning. This article under the instruction of the sustainable development theory, tries to carry on the research to the forecasting & warning system of region water resource, and then obtains some preliminary study achievements in forecasting & warning of sustainable-using the region water resource. Main research work and research results as follows:(1)Through comprehensive and deep development of the concepts of the forecasting & warning index-system、 the warning elements、 the warning levels、 the warning sources、 the warning signs and so on, we initially formulate the concept frame ,which has specialized and professional character in forecasting & warning system of region water resource.(2) Through the deep research to theoretic basis、 the forecasting & warning principle and the regulated mechanism of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization, we initially construct theory system which both has the water resource attributed character, and satisfies the forecasting & warning system request of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization .(3) Through the research to the concepts and background of synthetic evaluation method of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization , we propound warning level determination and warning sign recognition methods of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization.(4) On the grounds of formulating the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization index-system , we propose the methods of using the forecasting &warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization index to early warn ,and classifying warning levels by comparing and judgment .we also build up the early-warning model of region water resource sustainable-utilization by using artificial neural networks method ,which indicates high precision though model training and precision examination.(5) Through the discussion of necessity and feasibility of the forecasting & warning system research, we comprehensively analysize and research technical system of forecasting & warning and limited factors of the organization, and we also explore decision support-system software of by using the object-oriented technology.(6) We carry out testified analysis to the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization, and using research foundings ,instruct Yuanyang government to formulate the "2006-2010 "plan of hydro—development, and propose the regulation strategy and practical measure, which will turn the water resource exploitation of the Yuanyang Hani terraced fields from slight warning to no warning .更多还原