【作者】 宋敏；

【导师】 许长新；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 在金融脆弱性中,银行业表现得最为明显。银行经营是以其高杠杆的负债融资而支撑起来的,这种高负债率是银行脆弱性的最根本的原因,脆弱性是银行业的天性。银行业的脆弱性在各国银行危机的实践中不断得到了印证,这些危机多发生于发展中国家,并且经常给这些国家产生毁灭性影响。实践给理论提出了挑战,银行脆弱性引起各国经济学家的高度关注。 论文在对银行脆弱性从宏观、中观和微观三个视角进行了文献回顾的基础上,对银行业的脆弱性进行了理论分析。认为银行本身的特点决定了银行存在内在脆弱性,并且信息不对称的普遍存在和不确定性也加剧了银行脆弱性的不断累积;同时在制度变迁的过程中,金融自由化、政府的过度干预和转轨时期的特殊经济制度背景都可能增加银行业的脆弱性。从分析金融危机来衡量银行脆弱性的直接成本和间接成本的角度,认识到银行业脆弱性的危害性。讨论了银行脆弱性至金融危机的演化机制。 论文从宏观、中观和微观三个层面来分析中国银行业脆弱性的特殊生成机理。脆弱性的微观生成机理是由于单一的公有产权结构和薄弱内控机制生成的;中观生成机理是由于我国特殊的银企关系、预算软约束、垄断性的市场结构和存在缺陷的金融监管制度;宏观生成机理主要有加入WTO的背景、不健全的信用制度和政府对银行业的干预。在此综合宏观、中观、微观三个层面的因素构建了一套适合我国的银行业脆弱性测度指标体系。通过收集现实数据,利用模糊识别综合评价模型对中国银行业脆弱性测度进了实证分析,得出1993-2004年我国银行业的脆弱性水平一直维持在值得关注的临界值上下,需要采取相应的措施稳定并降低脆弱度。然后,应用改进的权重计算方法对影响银行业脆弱性的因素进行了归因分析,认为在中国银行业脆弱性的三个层面的影响因素中,宏观层面的影响是最大的,中观层面的影响次之,微观层面的最小。 由于目前我国银行业微观层面的股份制改造等基本完成,由分析得出的结论,论文最后认为中国银行业脆弱性的效率改进的重点是维持宏观经济良好的运行态势和关注中观层面的制度建设。通过模型分析和多方论证提出了中观层面三个方面的效率改进手段:1.构造我国竞争性的商业银行市场结构。通过构建银行业市场结构与脆弱性的模型来研究竞争性的市场结构对利率、项目选择、破产风险和社会福利涵义的影响,结果表明其不会增加银行脆弱性,并且能一定程度改善社会福利。2.建立和完善以风险评估和监控为核心的银行监管制度。进一步完善风险评估指标体系,突出对银行自身风险管理体制的评估,完善以风险为本的监管制度。3.建立我国显性的存款保险制度。存款保险制度能够为金融体系提供一张安全网,将我国隐性的“超级”存款保险制度改进为显性存款保险能提高监管效率,提高银行的资产质量,降低银行业的脆弱性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial fragility is an obvious feature of the banking. The operation of the banks is supported by the highly levered debt financing and this high debt rate is the fundamental reason of the bank fragility. In a word, fragility is the nature of the banking and it is confirmed in the banking crisis of various developing countries.This dissertation first reviews the literature on banking fragility from macro, medium and micro visual angles. The analysis shows that the nature of the banking determines its internal fragility, the ubiquity of the information asymmetry and the uncertainty exacerbate the continuously accumulation of the fragility. During the process of the institutional changes, financial liberalization, over-intervention of the government and the specific economic institutional background of the transition phase may all increase the fragility of the banking. The dissertation studies the evolution mechanism from banking fragility to financial crises and measures the direct costs and the indirect costs of the banking fragility.This dissertation analyzes the specific forming mechanism of the Chinese banking fragility from macro, medium and micro levels. The micro mechanism is the unitary public property right and the unsubstantial internal-controlling system. The medium mechanism is the specific bank-company relationship, soft budget constraint, monopolistic market structure and the imperfect financial supervision system. The macro mechanism mainly includes the background of entry into WTO, unsound credit system and the intervention of the government. Based on the above analysis a set of fragility measurement indicator system is established. Then a positive analysis on the Chinese banking fragility measurement is made and it is shown that from year 1993 to 2004 the fragility level of our banking keeps right around the critical point and thus associated measures should be taken to stabilize and lower the fragility level. Then it is shown that the macro level factor influences the fragility most, then the medium and the micro the least.Since the stock-holding reform in the micro level has almost been finished, it is argued that emphasis of the efficiency improvement of the Chinese banking fragility should be put on the institutional establishment of the medium level. Three aspects of improving ways are proposed: 1. Establish the competitive market structure of the commercial banks of our country. Models of the banking market system and fragility show that the fragility will not be increased and the social welfare can be improved. 2. Establish and perfect the banking supervision system with the core of risk assessment and control. Further improve the risk evaluation system and highlight the assessment of the self- risk management system of the banks to improve the risk-based supervision system. 3. Establish the explicit deposit insurance system that offers a safety net for the financial system to increase the supervision efficiency, improve the quality of the banking assets and lower the banking fragility.更多还原