【作者】 周安石；

【导师】 夏清； 康重庆；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 电气工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 由于电力行业资金密集型的特点,做好电力系统规划是保证电网安全与经济相协调的关键环节。网厂分离的电力市场环境对传统的电力规划提出了许多亟待解决的新问题,诸如如何开展电力规划工作,如何保障系统足够的发电容量和输电容量,如何对稀缺的能源和资金在市场个体之间进行有效的配置,等等。对电力市场竞争的潜在效益分析表明,在电力规划中引入市场机制将比基于存量发电资产的竞价上网取得更大的效益和效率,市场改革的实践呼唤对基于市场机制的电力系统规划新理论与方法展开研究。本文基于市场机制,提出了分步协调的电力规划新模式。重点协调全局规划与分散决策之间的矛盾,界定发电公司、电网公司以及政府部门在规划中所处的位置、职责和义务,解决市场环境下保持发电容量充裕的难题,实现电力工业与国民经济、资源、环境的协调发展,充分发挥市场机制的基础作用,达到优化电力资源配置的目标。本文提出了电力行业规划的统一优化新模型,不但有效解决了连续多年投资决策中时间维度处理的难题,而且充分地考虑了能源、燃料、环保等多方面的因素,从更高的角度对全社会资源进行统一优化。根据投资决策问题特征及其模型的数学性质,提出了准动态优化算法,可以快速有效地求解这个高维度、大规模、整数型的优化问题。本文提出了电源竞争规划市场的新理念及其竞争模式。该模式以科学的经济信号引导电源投资的分布、建设进度,通过竞争降低电源建设的成本,充分地发挥了市场机制的资源优化配置作用,以市场机制避免电力长期供需平衡中的振荡。竞争规划市场中引入浮动价格机制、金融合约等,为电力投资提供了有效的风险规避手段,并对其中的金融措施,从经济学的角度进行了科学论证。本文建立了电力系统优化规划的评估体系,提出了一系列新颖的评估指标和方法,同时解决了优化结果可视化的问题,为电力规划决策提供了更直观、简洁的判据。在完善传统评价指标的基础上,提出综合性评价方法,对规划方案进行明确、科学、可视化的评判,对提高电力系统的规划效率有重要的价值。本文较为完整地提出了市场环境下电力规划新模式、各个关键环节的模型与算法、规划效果的评价体系,对推动我国电力工业市场化改革中的规划工作有重要的价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power industry is characterized with capital intensive therefore the planningplays an important role in power system development. The separation betweengeneration sector and transmission sector raises lots of new problems that should besolved, e.g. how to deploy efficient planning, to ensure the sufficient generationcapacity and transmission capacity to satisfy the future increasing load demands, aswell as to allocate efficiently the limited energy resources and investment in powersystem, etc. Those problems should be studied with great attention in future. Theanalysis of the potential benefits from market competition shows that competitionbetween the new entrants can bring more benefits than the competition betweenexisting generation assets. Thus, new theory and methodology should be studied andproposed to bring in the competition in power system expansion planning.Based on the market mechanism, a new power system planning mechanismcomposed of coordinated multiple steps is proposed in this dissertation. This newmechanism tries to coordinate the conflicts between the decentralized decisionmaking and the global optimization, to define explicitly the responsibilities, rights ofgeneration companies, grid companies and governments. The main goals of theproposed planning mechanism is to execute the power system planning from theaspects of optimal allocation of power resources, so that to ensure the sufficientinstallation capacity in deregulated power industry.This dissertation proposes a new optimization model for centralized industryplanning. This new model solves the horizon-related problem in the optimalmulti-years investment decision. The power system investment decision can beoptimized from the aspects of optimal allocation of social resources, as well as takinginto consideration of the constraints of energy resources, fuel types and environmentrestrictions. A quasi-dynamic optimization algorithm is proposed based on theanalysis of the characteristics of power system investment and its mathematic model.This algorithm can solve this high-dimension, large scale and integer-mixed optimalproblem with high efficiency.A competitive generation expansion market with detailed competitionmechanism is also presented in this dissertation. The competition results forming inthis market can provide the long-term stable incentive to investment in generationsector and can serve as the scientific and precise economical signal to instruct theallocation and development procedure of generation plants. The competition in thismarket can also lower the installation costs of generation capacity, incite the positiveimpacts of market in efficient allocation of generation resources, and reduce theoscillation of the relation between electricity supply and demand. The application ofthe linkage between electricity price and fuel price as well as financial contracts in theproposed market can provide efficient hedge to power investor, whose efficiency isproved from the economic viewpoints.This dissertation also establishes an evaluation system for power systemexpansion planning, which can provide visual evaluation results and more directjudgment criteria. Besides of supplementing the traditional judgment criteria, furthernew criteria is reinforced to construct an integrated method to evaluate the expansionplan more explicitly, scientifically and visually, which is valuable of improving theoptimal efficiency of expansion plans.The dissertation proposes systematic the new mechanism, correspondingmathematic models, algorithms and evaluation criteria system for power systemexpansion planning in deregulated environment, which are all of great value topromoting the reform of Chinese power system.更多还原