【作者】 苏钰；

【导师】 汪波；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化进程的发展,我国将更多地进入国际市场,竞争也更加激烈,企业此时不仅要面对国内众多竞争对手,也要面对来自国际跨国公司的压力,相对跨国公司我国企业往往发展历史较短,资金较为薄弱,管理相对落后,抗风险能力较弱;此外,我国市场经济还处于不成熟的市场经济阶段,市场规划还未完成,市场信用体系还不健全,诚信水平较低,拖欠款现象、违约现象等还普遍存在,这些不良现象大大制约企业发展,使企业面对更多的不确定性,这使得对企业营销风险管理技术的研究迫在眉睫。目前对营销风险管理的研究还存在很多空白和欠缺,还主要停留在定性研究阶段,对定量研究不足,本文主要针对营销风险管理中的定量化问题展开了研究,主要内容有:(1)由于目前对营销风险理论研究还很不完善,本文在总结前人在营销风险研究中取得成果的基础上,给出了一个较为完善的查找企业营销风险所在的理论框架。(2)由于对目前营销风险预警的研究从指标体系到定量方法上都很不完善,本文建立一个较完善的营销风险预警指标体系,且在研究指标特性的基础上,建立一个更合理的营销风险预警模型,且在该模型中给出了各指标定量方法,解决营销风险预警中指标定量难的问题。(3)目前对营销风险分析还主要停留在定性研究阶段,对定量研究还很不足,本文针对营销风险分析中的难点问题-引起营销风险的底事件发生概率的统计难题,将解决不确定性问题的盲数理论应用于故障树分析中建立了盲故障树分析方法,为营销风险分析提供了一个定量方法。(4)本文针对营销风险改进方案特点,应用集对分析理论评价方案的改进效果并综合考虑改进成本,建立营销风险改进方案选择的方法,为企业在选择制定的营销风险改进方案时提供依据。(5)目前对营销风险防范对策研究还较少,本文在总结前人的研究成果和对国内典型企业营销风险发生案例的深入研究的基础上,提出了一些国内企业营销风险防范策略,可供企业参考。(6)本文应用所开发的营销风险预警模型对某大型国有企业做实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of global economy, our country will step intothe international market further, and the competition between countrieswill be much keener. Therefore, an enterprise in our country has to facenot only a great number of competitive opponents from our country butalso the pressure from international transnational corporations.Comparing with the transnational corporations, our enterprises have muchweakness, such as, the shorter developing history, lacking for funds andresistance to risk and backward in management. Moreover, the marketeconomy in our country is not still ripe, for the market program has notyet completed and the market credit system has not yet improved. Andsome unhealthy tendencies, which generally exist in lower standard ofhonest and faith, arrears and breaking a contract, restrict greatly thedevelopment of enterprises and make these enterprises face much moreunexpected difficulties. For these reasons, the research about themanagement of marketing risk is extremely urgent and near.At the moment, there are a lot of gaps and shortcomings in the fieldof the research about the management of marketing risk. The mainproblem is at the stage of the qualitative research and lacking for thequantitative research. This thesis focuses on the quantitative researchabout the management of marketing risk. There are the followingcontents:⑴ Since the theoretical research of marketing risk is not perfect,based on the forefathers’ achievement in marketing risk the thesisconstructs a more perfect theoretical framework for searching for whereenterprise marketing risk lies.⑵ Because at the moment the theoretical research about alarming ofmarketing risk isn’t perfect in both the index system and the quantitativemethod, this thesis constructs a perfect index system of alarming ofmarketing risk. On the basis of researching the index feature, this thesisalso makes a more rational model of alarming of marketing risk, in whichthe quantitative methods are designed to solve index quantitativeproblems of alarming of marketing risk.⑶ At present, the analysis of marketing risk is still at the stage ofqualitative study and is lacking in the quantitative study. In accordancewith the difficult problem in analysis of marketing risk— the statisticalproblem of the probability of basic event causing the marketing risk— thethesis will apply the blind number theory which can be used to solveunexpected problem to the analysis of fault tree and design the analysismethod of blind fault tree. This thesis will also provide a quantitativemethod for the analysis of marketing risk.⑷ In accordance with the improving plan of marketing risk, thisthesis applies the theory of set pair analysis to evaluate the result ofimproving. After having considered comprehensively the improved cost,this thesis designs a series of methods to improve the plan of marketingrisk and provides scientific basis for enterprises when they choose anddraw up improving plan for marketing risk.⑸ The research of preventing countermeasure for marketing risk isless at the moment, so this thesis concludes the forefathers’ achievementand deeply study some cases of marketing risk in domestic typicalenterprises. On the basis of this the thesis proposes a number ofcountermeasure of preventing marketing risk in domestic enterprises,which enterprises may consult.⑹ This thesis also applies the model of early warning of marketingrisk to make an experimental study in a large state enterprise.更多还原