【作者】 代宏坤；

【导师】 徐玖平；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 在信息技术高度发达的条件下,以信息化带动工业化是我国企业提高管理素质、增强竞争力的战略选择。从20世纪80年代初期至今,国内企业在信息化建设中的进行了大量的投资。与巨大的投入相比,信息化建设取得的成果却是不尽人意的,引入信息技术的失败案例比比皆是。在导致信息化失败的众多因素中,技术采纳的时机是一个关键的因素。太早采纳新技术可能会给企业带来难以接受的复杂性、高成本和高风险,太晚采纳技术则难于在市场上取得竞争优势。信息技术所具有的技术变化速度快、持续升级、二次开发和多版本并存等显著特征,使技术不确定性在影响企业技术采纳时间的众多因素中显得格外重要。管理者期望了解技术的不确定性如何影响信息技术采纳决策。研究在各种技术不确定情形下的采纳准则及影响因素是信息技术采纳决策的关键。 论文的研究目的是增进企业对技术不确定情形如何影响信息技术采纳决策的理解。从技术进步的不同角度,把技术不确定性分为速度与幅度、突破与改进、外部与内部、基础与升级四种情形,因此,研究关注如下四个目标: ①提出在技术到达速度和技术改进程度不确定的情形下,企业技术采纳时间的决策准则及影响因素。 ②提出在技术突破和技术改进不确定的情形下,企业技术采纳时间的决策准则及影响因素。 ③提出在外部技术进步及内部学习效应的情形下,企业技术采纳时间的决更多还原

【Abstract】 On the background of advanced information technology, Information promoting the industrial is our strategic choice to improve management quality and strengthen the competency. Chinese enterprise has invested over 100 billion RMB on information construction from last century, while the results we got are really depressed and the unsuccessful case is so common. The time of adopting technology is a critical one among those factors leading to lose. To adopt technology too early would bring unacceptable complex, high cost and high risk, while it is hard to earn the strength on market when enterprise adopt too late. Technology uncertainty stand a leading position for its outstanding characters such as changing fast, sustained updating, redevelopment and multiple version. Manager wants to know how the technology uncertainty influences the information technology adoption. Study the rules of adoption on the various technology uncertainty cases is crucial for adoption decision.The aim of research is to promote the enterprise’s understanding about how the technology uncertainty cases influence the adoption decision. From the dif-ferent aspects of technology advance, we divided the technology uncertainty as four cases, including technology speed and technology level, technology breakthrough and technology improvement, outside technology advance and learning. Therefore, the research focuses on the following goals.(D Give the suggestion about decision rule of technology adoption time and the influencing factors on the occasion of uncertainty of technology arrival speed and technology improve level.(D Give the suggestion about decision rule of technology adoption time and the influencing factors on the occasion of uncertainty of technology breakthrough and technology improvement.(3) Give the suggestion about decision rule of technology adoption time and the influencing factors on the occasion of uncertainty of outside technology advance and enterprise learning.@ Give the suggestion about decision rule of technology adoption time and the influencing factors on the occasion of uncertainty of technology updating.Develop the random dynamical programming model related to the four cases. The research carried the quantity analysis and management analysis, and applied the results to the concreted cases, so as to verify the efficiency of model and the correctness of results.The first goal concerns the describing of technology arrival speed and technology improvement level. Current research didn’t go further to the describing of technology advancing process for the mere consideration the technology arrival speed. This research divided the uncertainty on the process of technology advance as two aspects, namely, the uncertainty of technology arrival speed and the uncertainty of technology improvement level. Develop the simple and multiple adopting optimization models on the consideration of influence of these uncertainty factors to the adoption time. Analyses the technology decision rules and the influence of various factors to optimization adoption time on the cases of simple adoption and multiple adoption, this factors include account rate, technology arrival speed, technology improvement level and current technology efficiency.On occasion of simple adoption, the results show the higher of account rate, the earlier the enterprise adopt technology; the faster of technology arrival speed, the earlier the enterprise adopt technology; the lower of expected technology efficiency improvement, the earlier the enterprise adopt technology; the enterprise who are in higher efficiency would adopt later than those who are in lower efficiency; the adoption time would be later for those who have higher or lower input efficiency. On occasion of multiple adoption, compare with the NPV rule, the invest decision is optimization on the decision rule of real option. The adoption time would be later for those who have higher or lower input efficiency.The second goal concerns the describing about uncertainty of technology breakthrough and technology improvement. Current research didn’t concern the describing of technology advance level. This research divided the technology advance level as technology breakthrough and technology improvement from point of view of level of technology advance on the basis of uncertainty of technology advance level. Develop a simple adoption optimal model. Analyses the technology decision rules and the influence of various factors to optimization adoption time on the cases of simple adoption, this factors include account rate, technology arrival speed, attainability of high efficiency technology, and the distribution of technology breakthrough, capital and production efficiency. The decision rule of technology adoption time show, enterprise would adopt the new technology when the technology efficiency the innovation brought over a certain threshold. The enterprise would adopt the technology earlier on the distribution of technology breakthrough, adopt earlier with the increase of account rate and fix capital, the enterprise who are in higher efficiency would adopt later than those who are in lower efficiency; the adoption time would be later for those who have higher production efficiency or lower technology efficiency.The third goal concerns the outside technology advance and enterprise learning effect. Current research only considers the outside technology advance and ignores the enterprise learning effect. This Research considers the both resource, develop a simple and multiple adoption optimal model. Analyses the technologydecision rules and the influence of various factors to optimization adoption time on the cases of simple adoption and multiple adoption, these factors include enterprises learning effect, outside technology advance and initial production cost. On occasion of simple adoption, technology adoption optimal decision rule is net profit is above 0, and the gap of following two stage’s net profit is above 0. The optimal time is delay with the increase of fixed cost, market volume and demand elasticity. The optimal time is delay with the increase of account rate and ahead with the increase of outside technology advance rate, learning rate when the market volume is big enough. On occasion of multiple adoptions, the optimal adoption rule is the existence of an optimal stage, it is optimal for enterprise once it enters the certain stage, which express by a length. Otherwise enterprise should use the current technology.The fourth goal concerns the describing about uncertainty of basic technology and update technology. Current research didn’t go further to study the influence of relationship between the technology advances to the adoption time. Develop a simple adoption multiple stage optimal model considering the relation of basic and update technology, considering the relation of basic technology and update technology, the influence of the uncertainty of market and technology to complicated real option. Analyses the technology decision rules and it’s nature. The results show, There is a mere threshold if the technology efficiency is over the current efficiency and profit flow is over 0, also, technology efficiency is lower the current efficiency and profit flow is lower 0. Then, the optimal update time is the time when the minimize of technology efficiency is over current technology efficiency. The optimal adoption threshold is merely and doesn’t relate with increase and decrease of income flow. The complex real option in the case of lack-updated opportunity is appositive due to the existence of future version of technology uncertainty. The real option adopted from the basic technology relay on the intense of technology arrival. The increase of uncertainty of market lead to the increase of net anticipated accumulated income, the value function of undated basic technology and adoption of basic technology, so as to delay the technologyadoption. The increase of uncertainty of technology leads to the increase of optimal threshold, so as to delay the adoption of technology. Also, the increase of uncertainty of technology leads to the increase of uncertainty of market.更多还原