【作者】 穆维松；

【导师】 傅泽田；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 本论文主要研究我国水果供求关系及变化规律,从复杂的水果供求关系系统中抽象出影响水果供求关系的主要因素,分析这些因素间的相互作用的内在机制,对正确决策水果产业发展战略,调整我国水果产业的生产结构具有重要理论意义和实用价值。本论文从以下几个方面进行了研究。 1) 针对中国水果供给的总量和品种结构,从水果的生产量和生产的品种结构、水果加工品的生产结构、水果进口量和进口品种结构等方面的特征进行了系统分析,并对水果供给的趋势进行了预测,分析了水果供给中存在的问题,从经济学的角度分析了影响水果供给的主要影响因素。 2) 主要从中国水果的需求总量、人均消费量、需求的水果的品种结构、水果加工品需求结构、水果出口量和出口品种结构变动特征进行了系统分析,并对水果需求趋势进行了分析;从经济学的角度分析了影响水果需求的主要因素,并对中国水果消费的经济学特征进行了考察。 3) 在分析水果供求关系经济学特征的基础上,从复杂的水果供求关系系统中抽象出影响水果供求关系的主要因素,以风险条件下农户的投入行为理论和经济预期理论为基础,运用经验归纳和理论演绎相结合的方法建立了反映水果供给与需求关系的组合分析模型。 4) 以水果供求关系组合分析模型为基础,采用经典的计量经济学建模方法,分别以水果总量、苹果和葡萄为例,构建了水果供求关系的组合分析模型,定量分析了水果总量、苹果和葡萄的供给、需求与价格的相互关系及经济学特征,从理论上分析了影响它们供求关系的主要影响因素及我国水果业发展中存在的问题。 5) 以供求关系理论和经济行为规律的认识为基础,基于动态计量经济学中的协整与误差修正理论,分别以水果总量、苹果和葡萄为例,构建了中国水果供给、需求和价格与其影响因素之间的长期相关与短期波动模型,分析了中国水果供求与其主要影响因素长期相关的稳定性和短期波动的特征。 运用本文研究方法可以解释水果供求关系系统中一些经济学特征,挖掘水果业发展中存在的问题,同时也可通过对模型的分析,为寻求解决水果产业发展中存在的问题的对策提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of exploring the relationship between fruit demand and supply, main affecting factors are extracted from the complex system, and the intrinsic mechanization are analyzed among different factors in this study. The research results could serve as the guideline to make fruit industry developing policy and production structure adjustment. Main contents are as followed:1) Firstly, the dynamic characteristics of China’s fruit supply are analyzed and undulation characteristic and its tendency are studied. After comparing with other main fruit production countries, existing problems in our country’s fruit supplies and the main factors in fruit supplies are explored economically.2) Secondly, the fruit demanding characteristic, undulation and its tendency in China are analyzed. Existing problems of China’s fruit demand, its main influential factors are studied after comparing with those in developed countries.3) Thirdly, the economic characteristics of fruit supply and demand are studied and the main factors are extracted from the complex fruit supply and demand system. By using Peasant’s Input Behavior under risk condition, the partial adjustment model, the economic anticipation theory and theory deduction method, the fruit demand and supply model was established.4) Fourthly, Taking combination analysis model, using the classic method of establishing econometric model, taking fruit total quantity, apple and grape as examples, to construct combination analysis model of Chinese fruit supply and demand relations, analyze mutual relations among fruit’s supply, demand and the price, and its economic characteristics from the quota perspective, and then to theoretically analyze the main factor which influences fruit supply and demand relations most and existing problems in fruit supply and demand relations .5) Finally, based on theory of supply and demand, by using the dynamic method of econometric model, the long-term correlative model and short-term fluctuant model for aggregate fruit, apple and grape are established, and then the stability of long-term correlation and characteristics of short-term fluctuant between fruits supply-demand and their affecting factors are analyzed.The models set up in this study could be used to explain economic characteristics in fruit supply and demand system, to find out existing problems in fruit industry and, above all, provide theoretical foundation to find out the problems of the industry.更多还原