【作者】 王德成；

【导师】 傅泽田；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 研究我国农业机械化发展的经济效应,对贯彻《中华人民共和国农业机械化促进法》(简称《农业机械化促进法》),推进工业反哺农业政策的实施,促进农业综合生产能力的提升,加速全面建设小康社会的进程,具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。 论文通过文献分析,归纳并分析、总结了农业机械化发展研究的相关理论概念,包括农业机械化的内涵、农业机械化的项目类别、农业机械化特征和农业机械化的任务。同时,从农业机械化系统分析、农业机械化与经济的关系、农业机械化贡献的测算、农业机械化效益的评价、农业机械化发展水平的评价、农业机械化发展的阶段性等方面分析了国内针对农业机械化发展的研究状况;从农业机械化系统优化分析、农业机械化政策理论研究、农业机械化与可持续发展、可计算一般均衡模型分析、技术经济增长理论等方面分析了国外农业机械化发展研究的基本状况。 论文通过对国内外工业化进程的剖析,研究了我国农业机械化的阶段特征,以及所处阶段产生的效应,并从生产工具替代、农业综合生产能力提高和农村经济结构良性调整等方面分析了其表现形式;同时也阐述了现阶段影响我国农业机械化效应发挥的主要制约条件。 论文在我国农业机械化发展效应经济性分析的基础上,利用回归模型边际效应分析方法初步定量探讨了农业机械化发展水平对农村经济的作用程度影响,并运用C—D生产函数模型模拟方法对农业机械化对农村经济影响进行了进一步说明。 论文采用系统分析方法中的层次分析法Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),对影响我国农业机械化发展的关键因素进行了有效、合理的分解,建立了相应的数学模型,从而确定了影响我国农业机械化发展的主导因素。同时,应用逐步回归分析方法定量分析了影响我国农业机械化发展的5个主要因素间的相关关系,以农业机械装备水平为代表的农业机械化发展水平与农民人均纯收入、农村劳动力向二、三产业转移率、农业人口人均占有耕地面积、初中文化程度以上人数(每百个劳动力中)和农村人口人均科研经费之间的相互关联关系。 论文运用建模与仿真理论,并基于经济增长模式构建了我国农业机械化发展的经济效应动态仿真模型;在对我国农业机械化发展经济效应动态仿真模型进行参数估计的基础上,进行了情景分析,为探讨新时期我国农业机械化的发展趋势提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on the economic effects of agricultural mechanization development in China has theoretical significance and practical value in carrying out Law of the People’s Republic of China on Promoting the Development of Agriculture Mechanization, pushing the policy of Industry Finance Agriculture, enhancing the integrated agriculture productivity and accelerating the course of building a well-off society in an all-round way.By analyzing documents, the paper summarizes theories and concepts related to agricultural mechanization, including inherent nature, program items, characteristics and tasks of agricultural mechanization. Meanwhile, it analyzes present research status of agricultural mechanization in China from different aspects, for example, system analysis, relationship between agricultural mechanization and economy, measurement of agricultural mechanization contribution, benefit and development level evaluation, and development phase etc, together with basic research status analysis of overseas agricultural mechanization from variable aspects, such as optimized system analysis, research of policy theory, sustainable development, analysis of Computable General Equilibrium model, technological economic growth theory.Based on the analysis of the course of industrialization both at home and abroad, the paper studies on the phases features and effects of agricultural mechanization in China, it also analyzes the representations form from different aspects, such as the replacement of production tools, the improvement of integrated agriculture productivity and the reasonable structure modification of rural economy etc. Besides, the main limiting factors influencing the effects of agricultural mechanization in China at present are described.By the economic analysis of the agricultural mechanization development effects in China, the paper does qualitative research into impacts of effect degree that different levels of agricultural mechanization have on the rural economy by means of edge effect analysis in regression model, and farther explanation about the impacts that agricultural mechanization have on the rural economy is indicated using the method of simulation of C-D production function model.Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied in this paper when main factors which affect the development of agricultural mechanization are decomposed effectively and rationally. And the mathematic model is built in the paper; therefore the dominant factors are established. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between the five main factors quantitatively using the method of stepwise regression, including the relationship between the development levels of agricultural mechanization represented by the level of agricultural mechanical equipments and different aspects, for example, the peasants’ per capita income, the ratio of migration of agriculture labor, the area of farmland for each farmer, the population receiving an education above junior middle school, the amount of agricultural scientific research fund for each farmer etc.Taking advantage of modeling and simulation theory, the paper establishes dynamic simulation model of economic effects about the development of agricultural mechanization in China based on the mode of economic growth; by estimating parameter, scenario analysis is established with the aim of providing theoretical basis for discussing the development trend of agricultural mechanization in new period.更多还原