【作者】 刘秀梅；

【导师】 秦富；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济与管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,我国城乡居民收入水平有了很大的提高,直接导致居民消费水平和消费结构的重大变化。根据目前我国城乡居民的恩格尔系数,食物消费支出仍为居民家庭消费支出的重要支出部分,各类食物消费支出所占的比例也在不断地发生着变化,其中既有主食和副食消费结构的变化,也有副食中动物性食物消费结构的变化。通过分析影响这些变化的主要因素,把握城乡居民动物性食物消费的变化规律,判断居民动物性食物需求的变化趋势,对未来我国食物供求平衡、畜牧业生产以及保障我国的食物安全等具有非常重要的现实意义。 本文采用我国城乡居民1995年至2003年间除重庆市和西藏自治区以外的29个省份的城乡居民动物性食物消费的统计面板数据,建立城镇和农村居民动物性产品食物需求的LA/AIDS模型,分析收入、价格、家庭规模、城市化水平以及地区和年度变量对我国城乡居民动物性食物消费结构变化影响的显著性及其程度。估计了猪肉、牛羊肉、禽肉、蛋类和水产品消费支出的自价格弹性、非补偿的交叉价格弹性和补偿的交叉价格弹性。研究家庭规模、城市化水平对居民动物性食物消费的影响程度。 研究结果表明居民收入、动物性食物的价格以及家庭规模、地区差别对城乡居民的动物性食物消费都存在显著的影响,城市化水平对农村居民的动物性食物消费有非常显著的影响。随着居民收入水平的提高,城乡居民将增加各种动物性食物消费支出,城镇居民将增加较多的禽肉消费和猪肉消费,农村居民增加较多的猪肉消费,城乡居民对牛羊肉消费偏好不强烈;家庭规模的增大,将使城乡居民减少猪肉和蛋类消费,增加禽肉和牛羊肉消费;农村居民减少猪肉消费,增加其它动物性食物消费。城市化水平的提高,将使农村居民减少猪肉消费,增加较多的蛋类消费。 关于居民在外就餐的情况,结合有关专家的计算结果,考虑在外就餐因素,用调整后的数据重新进行了估计,并同不考虑在外就餐的结果进行了比较。结果表明,在外就餐对城镇居民动物性食物消费的影响大于对农村居民的影响。 根据估计的城乡居民的动物性食物消费支出的弹性以及家庭规模和城市化水平对城乡居民消费的影响程度,未来我国城乡居民禽肉和猪肉的人均消费量的增加将不可忽视。在未来若干年里,国家在调整农业产业结构时,应高度重视畜牧业的发展,努力提高牛羊肉、禽肉和猪肉的供给能力,保障城乡居民对动物性食物不断增长的消费需求。更多还原

【Abstract】 The income both urban and rural residents in China has been increasing greatly since the economic system reform in 1978. Meanwhile, the level and structure of their consumption have kept changing largely, too. But the food expenditure is still the most important component in their daily lives. It means that the Engle’s coefficients are still very high. The share of different food consumption in total food expenditure has also changed continuously. Not only the staple food grain but also the animal food food consumption has changed a lot. Analyzing of these major impact factors based on the law of the passed property and amount of animal consumption, we can understand the coming trends of the urban and rural residents in animal food consumption, .measure the degree of variation in the near future, provide recommendations for the development of the livestock industry .It will be valuable for balancing the food supply and demand, and the food safety issues in China as well.This paper uses the panel data of all provinces in Chin except for Congqin and Xizang during 1995 and 2003, establishes systematic models both the urban and rural residents’ animal food consumption via LA/AIDS model, analyzes the notability and degree of influence to urban and rural residents in animal food consumption structure, including income level, price factor, household scale, the degree of urbanization, regional and time differences et al. After this, this paper also estimates the expenditure elasticity, self-price elasticity, non-compensated and compensated price elasticity for pork, beef and mutton, poultry meat ,eggs and aquatic.The result shows that the income level, the price of animal food, the household scale, the difference of region, have impacted the demand of animal food food consumption remarkably. The level of urbanization has influenced the rural residents’ demand for animal food consumption greatly, too. With the income growth of the residents, they will increase all kinds of animal food consumption but in different extents. The urban residents will increase more poultry and pork consumption, meanwhile the rural residents will increase more pork consumption. Both the urban and rural residents will not consume beef and mutton preferable. With the enlarging of the household scale, urban residents will reduce their pork and eggs consumption, but increase poultry and little beef and button; rural residents will reduce their pork consumption but increase other animal food consumption. With the degree increase of the urbanization, the rural residents will reduce their pork consumption, but increase egg consumption.To take into account of out-of-doors consumption, and apply other experts’ research results, this paper re-estimates the results and compares them with the existed conclusions. We find the impact to urban residents is much larger than to rural residents. It indicates that the out-of-doors consumption of urban citizen is more than the rural side.On the groungs of the estimated elasticity , pe capita increment amount of animal food will be enormous in future. Government should take into account the cattle breeding develop highly when adjusting the structure of agriculture,endeavor to enhance the ability of animal food offer and undertake the increasing demand of residents.更多还原