【作者】 刘会新；

【导师】 王红卫；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 系统工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 供应链系统是一个复杂大系统,其动态性与复杂性使得对它的预测和控制常常失效,因而对供应链动态复杂性的研究迫在眉睫。然后,以往对供应链动态性的研究主要关注于供应链中的牛鞭效应问题,且以多为线性模型; 而近些年来对供应链系统的动态复杂行为主要以仿真模型为主,缺少对供应链系统非分析机制的分析。鉴于此,本文尝试利用非线性系统理论与技术并借助仿真手段来探寻供应链系统产生复杂动态行为的原因。本文以基于自动库存与订货策略(APIOBPCS)的周期查库供应链系统为对象,以系统结构的变化为主线,围绕供应链系统的稳定性与非线性动态特性展开研究。文中利用状态空间法建立了供应链系统的动态模型,并借助非线性系统分析技术和切换系统稳定性理论分析了使供应链系统稳定及产生复杂动态行为的原因,给出了订货策略决策参数的取值原则,并探讨了信息共享方法对供应链系统动态性的影响。首先分析了有充足供应源条件下单级库存控制系统的动态特性,分别考虑了成员被允许退货和不允许退货的两种情况。对允许退货的情况,建立了系统的线性离散模型,给出了在任意提前期时使系统稳定的订货参数取值范围; 对不允许退货的情况,指出系统的模型不再是线性的,而是在两个模态之间切换的切换系统,系统的切换动作导致了简单的系统模型也能产生复杂的行为。接着,分析了由一个分销商和一个零售商组成的二级链式供应链系统的动态特性,其中分销商不设最低库存。分销商库存水平与零售商订货需求的不同状态导致了分销商对下游发货量非唯一,并称之为供应的不确定性。这种不确定性导致系统的模型非线性,可视作由三个线性模态组成的切换系统。根据线性离散系统稳定性理论分析了系统各模态的稳定性及其意义,并借助切换系统稳定性理论与仿真手段分析了使系统稳定的决策参数的取值范围,指出供应链成员的决策之间存在着相互作用,而当成员决策参数选取不当时,系统将出现周期、拟周期及混沌行为。随后将系统模型扩展为由一个分销商和两个零售商组成的二级分销型供应链系统,系统中同样存在着供应不确定性问题。通过建立系统的切换模型,分别分析了系统的各种模态及其稳定性,系统的切换规则及系统的切换稳定性问题,对供应链中同级成员之间、不同级成员之间决策时的并行交互问题进行了探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is well known that supply chains are complex systems with large scales. Their complex behaviors have been observed by many researchers in recent years, and firms’efforts to manage supply chains have often led to frustration and helplessness. It calls for a model of a supply chain that more accurately reflects its true underlying complexity and dynamism. However, current researches mostly focus on the finding of chaos in supply chains, and it is still an open question that why the supply chains can exhibit such complex behaviours. Based on such a question, the present paper investigates the mechanisms that govern the dynamics of the supply chains by means of nonlinear system theory. In this paper, the dynamic stability of three periodic reviewed supply chains incorporating an order policy named as APIOBPCS(Automatic Pipeline, Inventory and Order Based Production Control System) are investigated. Dynamic models are given by means of state space method. Switched system theory and discrete system control theory are used to analyze the complex behaviour of the system. Management principles are given for each type of supply chains. And the influence of information sharing on the dynamics of supply chain is analyzed. Firstly, the dynamics of an inventory control system with enough supplies is investigated. Two cases of order cancellations policy are analyzed. If order cancellations are permitted, the system is linear. A discrete time model in the form of state space equations is developed and a novel method to analyze discrete systems with constant time delay is proposed, and the general stability criterion of the order policy parameters for a system with any lead time is given by Rouche’s Theorem. For the case that order cancellations are not permitted, the inventory control system becomes a switched system with two subsystems. It is shown that it is the switching between the subsystems that induces the complex behaviours of the system. Subsequently, the dynamics of a 2-echelon supply chain is investigated, which consists of one retailer and one distributor. Here, the distributor does not set the safe stock and order cancellations are permitted. The shipment of the distributor in each period has three different expressions according to the on-hand inventory level of the distributor and the demand of the retailer, and this can be termed as the supply uncertainty. With this kind of uncertainty, the supply chain becomes nonlinear and can be modeled as a switched system with three subsystems. The switched rules are formulated and stability of each subsystem is analyzed. It is pointed that there are interactions between the members of the supply chain and improper order policy parameters may lead the system to chaos. This dissertation then extends the supply chain to a 2-stage distribution supply chain with a distributor and two retailers. There is supply uncertainty in such a system too. The switched system model of the supply chain is given, and its subsystems, switching rules and stability are analyzed respectively. The parallel interactions between the members of the system are investigated by simulations. On the basis of the analysis of the 2-stage distribution supply chain, the effect of information sharing on dynamics of a two-stage distribution supply chain with a distributor and two retailers is studied finally. Two cases of information sharing between the distributor and the retailers are considered. In the first case, the distributor obtains information from the retailers about their demand forecasting, and in the second case, the distributor obtains additional information from the retailers about their inventory level. We compare the dynamics between the two cases and then point out that the second case outperforms the first one.更多还原