虚拟资本积累与经济增长

【作者】 徐璋勇；

【导师】 何炼成；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 政治经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 根据运行方式的不同,现代经济可以划分为以物质产品运行为主体的实体经济和以虚拟资本运行为主体的虚拟经济。对于实体经济的增长问题,自从亚当·斯密开始,经济学家就一直在进行研究。然而,对虚拟经济增长的研究则相对薄弱。由于虚拟经济的起点是虚拟资本,虚拟资本的积累与扩张过程就是虚拟经济的增长过程。为此,本文对于虚拟资本积累问题的研究遵循虚拟资本的产生(制度分析)——虚拟资本的积累(扩张机制分析)——虚拟资本积累的结果(效应分析)——虚拟资本积累的极态(泡沫经济分析)的思路进行。通过分析谋求在理论上对虚拟资本产生的制度条件、积累机制、经济效应、积累过度后出现的泡沫经济运行等问题做出说明;在此基础上,试图对两个实际问题做出自己的判断:一是改革开放以来中国的虚拟资本积累过程与经济增长的关系如何?二是中国虚拟资本市场未来发展还需要解决哪些重大问题以及如何解决?显然,对这些问题的研究无疑具有重大的理论与现实意义。 全文由三部分,共7章构成。第1部分,即第1章,主要是文献综述、相关概念的界定以及本文研究的思路与方法等;第2部分是理论研究,包括第2、3、4、5章;第3部分为实证分析,包括第6、7章。各章的主要内容和研究结论如下: 第1章是“导论”,这是本文研究的起点。通过研究背景的介绍、相关概念的界定、研究现状的述评及研究思路等为整个研究奠定基础。 第2章是“虚拟资本产生的制度分析”,主要运用制度经济学的理论和分析方法,遵循历史与逻辑相一致的研究思路,分析研究虚拟资本的特征、资本虚拟化的制度条件、虚拟资本积累的历史发展及其趋势等。研究得出的主要结论如下:虚拟资本的本质是一种契约,它产生的制度基础是信用制度;虚拟资本发展经历了一个从量变到质变的过程,以虚拟资本运动形成的虚拟经济正改变着整个经济系统的价值评判体系和运行方式。 第3章是“虚拟资本积累及其机制分析”,借用马克思对资本主义资本制度的分析方法,首先界定了虚拟资本积累的两种内涵,在此基础上对虚拟资本的积累机制进行了全面系统的分析。研究的主要结论如下:根据虚拟资本的运行特征,可以将虚拟资本积累划分为虚拟资本积累Ⅰ和虚拟资本积累Ⅱ,其中虚拟资本积累Ⅰ指收入的虚拟资本化,即收入转化为虚拟资本的过程,虚拟资本积累Ⅱ指虚拟资本在市场上的价值膨胀;虚拟经济的发展过程表现为虚拟资本积累的不断扩大过程;虚拟资本积累主要由市场因素决定,包括货币供求、信更多还原

【Abstract】 According to operation, modern economy can be classified into physical economy based on material products operation and fictitious economy based on fictitious capital operation. In regard to growth of physical economy, from Adam Smith on, economists has been doing research on it. While few people have been studying growth of fictitious economy. For the starting point of fictitious economy is fictitious capital, the process of accumulation and expansion of fictitious capital is just the process of fictitious economic growth. Thus, This Dissertation does studies on fictitious capital accumulation following such train of thoughts as emerging of fictitious capital (institutional analysis)—accumulation of fictitious capital (expansion mechanism analysis)—the outcomes of fictitious capital accumulation (efficiency analysis)—extreme preference of fictitious capital accumulation (bubble economy). The purpose of this study is to through theoretical researches on fictitious capital from such aspects of institutional conditions, accumulation mechanism, economic efficiency; bubble economy operation resulted from over accumulation. On the above basis, the author tries to make judges on the two practical problems as: how is the Chinese fictitious capital accumulation related with economic growth since the Opening Reform policies? What are the important problems confronted with the Chinese fictitious capital market in the future development and how are these problems to be solved? Obviously, it is of great importance both theoretical and practical to study the above-mentioned problems.The Dissertation consists of three chapters including 7 parts. Chapter One, also part 1 is literature reviewing, conceptualization, commentary of the precious relevant researches, train of thoughts and methodology, etc. Chapter Two composed of Part 2,3,4,5 is theoretical studies. Chapter Three including Part 6,7 is empirical analysis. The main contents of each parts are as follows:Part One is introduction, also the starting point of the Dissertation. It includes such contents as the background introduction, conceptualization, summarizing and commenting the precious relevant researches, setting the train of thoughts. It paves the base for the following research.Part Two analyzes the institutions under which fictitious capital emerging. It employs the theories and methodology of institutional economics, following such research train as history and logic being unanimous. It analyzes the characteristics offictitious capital, institutional conditions for capital getting fictitious, history and its development directions of fictitious capital accumulation, etc. The key findings are: the nature of fictitious capital is a contract; its institutional background is credit system; fictitious capital is developing from quantitative changes to qualitative changes; the fictitious economy resulted from fictitious capital operation is changing evaluation system and operation methods.Part Three is analysis of fictitious capital accumulation and its mechanism. Adopting Marxist Capitalist capital theory, first for all, the Dissertation conceptualizes two definitions of fictitious capital accumulation, and then does detailed analysis of its accumulation mechanism. The main research findings are: based on the characteristics, fictitious capital can be classified into fictitious capital accumulation I and fictitious capital accumulation II. The former refers to income fictitious capital accumulation, the process in which income change to fictitious capital; the latter refers to the market value inflation of fictitious capital. Development of fictitious economy is a continuous expansion process of fictitious capital accumulation. Fictitious capital accumulation is mainly decided by the market factors, which includes money supply, information asymmetry, market speculation, market expectation, etc. In addition, it is also affected by such environmental factors as financial innovation, financial deregulation, global capital movement.Part Four is efficiency analysis of fictitious capital accumulation. It focuses on growing efficiency of the fictitious capital accumulation enterprises, investment expansion efficiency, wealth efficiency and monetary policy efficiency and its mechanism. The main research findings are: First, the fictitious capital accumulation, especially the stock rights fictitious capital accumulation not only generates the modern enterprises, but also provides the conditions for the scale expansion of the modern enterprises. Second, fictitious capital is accumulated through savings mobilization function, liquidity function, Tobin efficiency, and balance sheet efficiency. Third, the scale expansion of fictitious capital accumulation could produce wealth efficiency through affecting the households’ real disposable income and changing households’ income expectation. Fourth, the fictitious capital accumulation not only brings about challenges to the intermediate objectives of monetary policies, but also makes the subjects of monetary policies transmission and its mechanism complicated, thus weakens the outcomes of monetary policies. Therefore, with the expansion of fictitious capital accumulation, it is necessary to adjust both theintermediate and the final objectives of monetary policies.Part Five is analysis of the extreme of fictitious capital accumulation: Bubble Economy analyzing". On the basis of conceptualizing the economic bubbles and bubble economy, the Dissertation pays more attention to the formation of economic bubbles and the operation of bubble economy, the positive and negative effects of economic bubbles, and the methods for measuring economic bubbles. The main findings are: economic bubbles are general phenomenon for economic operation, while bubble economy is a kind of false economic prosperous when the total bubble amount covers fairly big ratio to the macro-economic aggregate amount. Economic bubbles changing to bubble economy are due to interaction and transmission of market transaction under the wrong economic policies, the related economic structures and over development of fictitious economy as the key causes. Moderate economic bubbles could increase the dynamic efficiency of economy, promote effective resource allocation. However, bubble economy could result in seriously bad outcomes in economic operation. We can use the ratio of bubble swelling to measure the critical value of economic bubble.Part Six is empirical study of fictitious capital accumulation in China and its relationship with economic growth. The Dissertation uses econometrics methodology to do empirical study on wealth efficiency, resource allocation efficiency, investment expansion efficiency, monetary policy efficiency and economic growth efficiency resulted from fictitious capital accumulation since the Opening Reform Policy in China. The main research findings are: first, the fictitious capital accumulation II indicating the stock market indexes shows obvious wealth efficiency. However, the wealth efficiency is owed to people’s expectation for the future income increase instead of the real income increase. Second, the development of Chinese stock market has some effluence on the demand for Miand IV^and this influence becomes stronger with the expansion of the stock market share. Third, Expansion of the Chinese fictitious capital accumulation, in macro-level, has promoted the optimal resource allocation including upgrading the industry structures, improving businesses and accelerating the development of the new industry and national infrastructures, while in micro-level, the listed stock companies are generally lower efficient in resource allocation. Fourth, in general, fictitious capital accumulation is helpful for increasing social savings and investment amounts. Fifth, both fictitious capital accumulation I and fictitious capital accumulation II produce positive effects on GDP growth, but themarket liquidity indicating the exchange ratio of stock market is negatively related with GDP growth, showing the failure of Chinese stock market in risk-spreading. Sixth, according to the statistics from 1991-2003. the contribution of fictitious capital market functioning as a financing channel to economic growth rate is 0.58%, of which 0.114 resulted from stock market financing, and 0.47 resulted from securities financing.Part Seven is analysis of the strategic options for Chinese fictitious capital accumulation. The Dissertation, based on the problems existing in Chinese fictitious capital accumulation market proposes such strategic options as theoretical creation, proper market functioning, optimizing scale expansion and its structures, free stock rights exchanging, world-oriented developing, standardizing rules and regulations, etc.The creative new ideas in this Dissertation are as follows:First, the author adopts the methodology of Marxist industrial capital accumulation and movement theory, for the first time, conceptualizes the fictitious capital accumulation. According to its characteristics, two definitions of fictitious capital accumulation are given, namely fictitious capital accumulation I and fictitious capital accumulation II. If fictitious capital accumulation I is closely related with institutional changes, then fictitious capital accumulation II is closely related with market performance. The conceptualization is not only meaningful for establishing theoretical framework of fictitious capital accumulation, not also makes the train of research in economic growth even clearer. That is the overall economic growth is composed with such two parts as physical economy and fictitious economy. The former is based on the physical capital accumulation (although its scopes has been enlarging); the latter is based on the fictitious capital accumulation. The scale expansion and interaction of the two kinds economy constitutes the whole economic performance.Second, the study enlarges the scope of the existing fictitious capital accumulation. It includes in Mi and M2, making the present 4-typed classification enlarged to the 5-typed. Because in the modern world, both Miand M2 possess all the characteristics of fictitious capital, therefore it is more reasonable to cover Miand M2.Third, the study does detailed analysis on the process from economic bubbles to bubble economy, clarifying relative ambiguous ideas on the two concepts. It suggests that the government’s attitude towards bubbles should be that of preventing them from getting into bubble economy, and also the government should know clearly whatshould be done and not be done.Fourth, the study does empirical analysis on the fictitious capital accumulation in China and its relationship with economic growth, drawing some conclusions varying from the existing ones. They are the following: ?the Chinese stock market possesses the wealth efficiency, but the wealth efficiency is owed to people’s expectation for the future income increase instead of the real income increase, ?the Chinese capital markets developing for ten years, in macro-level, produces good efficiency in resource allocation, promoting the development the national key industries and new industries and upgrading the industrial structures, however in micro-level, it has serious resource waste and are in lower efficiency, ?the Chinese capital markets developing for ten years has played limited roles in economic growth. The reasons are improper policies, small market, improper structures, and limitation in understanding, etc. @by AK equation, it predicts the contribution of fictitious capital market functioning as financing to economic growth rate in 1991-2003 is 0.58%, of which 0.114 resulted from stock market financing, and 0.47 resulted from securities financing, ?the existing related theories should be reformed and get further development, especially the wealth creation theory and labor theory of value. The Chinese fictitious capital market should be regulated and get further development simultaneously instead of taking "shock measures" such as scale expansion and structure optimizing. The critical problems to be solved in state-owned stocks, and legal person-owned stocks should be the equal rights to the capital disposal between the state capital and private capital. This is the key to solving the free circulation problems; it is also the fundamental starting point for designing free circulation programs.更多还原