【作者】 李中才；

【导师】 王福林；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 农业机械化发展的不同历史阶段,必然存在不同的主要矛盾。提高农业机械化的经济效果是当前农机化发展中的一个主要矛盾之一。这个问题的解决,涉及到许多方面,其中农业机器的更新换代是具有全局性质的问题。随着农机工业的发展,目前我国已经进入农机产品供过于求的新阶段;同时,我国农机化经历五十多年的发展,有一部分机器面临着更新换代。因此,农业机器更新换代问题有必要进一步深入研究。本课题来源于“教育部优秀青年教师负责资助的项目”(项目编号为教人司[2002]40号)。 农业机器系统是实现农业生产过程机械化所需的各种动力机械和作业机械的有机组合。农业机器系统在农业生产中占有重要地位。它是实现农业生产的重要的物质技术基础之一,是现代化农业的重要标志之一。本文阐述了农业机器更新的重要意义和迫切性。积极推进机器更新换代,可以形成较大的机器作业能力,提高机器作业质量,降低机器的经营费用,提高机器运行的综合效果。通过阅读相关文献,深入研究,结果发现关于这方面的研究尚存在一些需要进一步研究的问题。本文对农业机器系统演化规律及仿真问题;农业机器系统的稳定性、能观性和能控性问题;无大修农业机器累计油料费、维修费的预测方法;农业机器经济寿命计算时的目标选择;农业机器系统中,某一机型平均经济寿命的计算方法;农业机器更新的技术经济效果评价问题;农业机器系统更新决策的决策方法;开发农业机器系统更新决策支持系统等问题进行了深入研究。 本文通过研究和借鉴已有的科研成果,取得了一些较新的成果。这些成果主要有: 提出了农业机器系统的状态转移原理,完成了农业机器状态仿真软件的开发。本文给出了农业机器系统的稳定性、能控性和能观性定义,分别对农业机器系统的稳定、能控和能观成立的条件给予了证明,揭示了农业机器系统的内部规律。本文把改进的实数遗传算法应用到农业机器有关指标预测问题中,并以修正指数模型为例,求得的模型精度较高,证实了改进的实数遗传算法能够较好地解决多个参数估计问题,从而进一步提高了农业机器有关指标预测的精度。本文把逻辑斯梯模型、线性回归模型、指数模型构建成组合预测模型,精度优于单个模型。本文系统地研究了农业机器的技术经济指标的获取和处理方法。应用多维超椭球面方法来剔除异常数据,与单指标异常数据的剔除方法相比,更具有合理性;对现有农机统计报表内容的革新,丰富了农机统计报表的内涵,能够更加真实地反映农业机器的技术经济指标的变化规律。本文对计算农业机器平均经济寿命的基本方法进行了归纳,在此基础上,对这些方法进行了对比分析。本文提出了农业机器系统更新决策模型和决策方法,即单台机器更新决策方法和机器系统更新决策方法,对农业机器系统更新决策进行了较深入、系统地研究。应用本文阐述的农业机器系统更新决策理论,结合黑龙江省绥棱农场的农业机器系统的实际,开发了农业机器系统更新决策支持系统,为较系统地解决农业机器更新换代问题提供了一个应用软件。本文最后以黑龙江省绥棱农场的农业机器系统为实证分析对象,进一步证实了本文提出的有关农业机器系统更新换代的理论和方法的正确性,验证了农业机器系统更新决策支持系统的正确性和稳定性。 本文研究的特点是多学科交叉,各种方法和技术综合应用。以农业机器状态仿真和更新决策为主线,同时开展相关问题的研究,研究成果不仅可发展和完善农业机器系统更新换代更多还原

【Abstract】 The different main illogicalities exited in the different period of agriculture mechanization development. That the economic efficiency would be increased was nowadays a main illogicality in the development of agriculture mechanization. There were a lot of factors involved in the economic efficiency of agriculture mechanization, but replacement of agriculture machinery system was a key factor. Supply exceeded demand for agriculture machinery along with its industrialization developing in China; at the same time, there was a part of agriculture machinery needed to be replaced through over fifty-year-developing. So replacement strategy of agriculture machinery was necessary to be researched. The origin of this paper was a research task of Education Department, and its number was [2002]40 of Education Department.Agriculture machinery system was in harmony composed of agriculture power system and machine system. Agriculture machinery system was important for agriculture producing. It was matter and tool of agriculture and indicating a agriculture moderation. The paper expatiated on significance and pressure of agriculture machinery replacement. To make agriculture machinery replacement advancing actively was helpful for stronger producing ability, producing quality, reducing running expenses, and increasing the whole economic efficiency of agriculture machinery. After thorough investigation of the literatures available, some problems about this field still needed to be researched. The paper’ s contents included law and state simulation of agriculture machinery system, observation, control, stability of agriculture machinery system, selecting objection of economic life of agriculture machinery system, average economic life about a certain type of agriculture machineries, evaluate economy benefit of agriculture machineries replacement, decision-making method of agriculture machineries replacement, design the aided decision-system for replacement strategy of agriculture machineries and so on.The following main achievements were obtained through researching:The paper pointed out theory of state transfer of agriculture machinery system, and simulated the state transfer of agriculture machinery system. The paper gave definition and prove of observation, control and stability of agriculture machinery system., and discussed the law of agriculture machinery system. The paper first applies RGA to forecast some indexes of agriculture machinery replacement, and some indexes of agriculture machinery replacement were forecasted more accurately. The paper researched on getting and dealing with economical indexes of agriculture machinery. The paper pointed out a basic method calculating economic life ofagriculture machinery. The paper gave out replacement strategy model, namely method of unit and group of agriculture machinery. The paper designed the aided decision-system for replacement strategy of agriculture machinery of Suiling Farm on the basis of the above theories, which is help to make decisions for replacement of agriculture machineries system as a whole. Applying the aided decision-system in Suiling Farm proved the above theories to be correct, and proved the software designed to be steady and correct.These achievements of the paper may develop and eliminate the imperfections in the theory of replacement and model of agriculture machinery, thereby to guide more effectively for decision making and practical production.Some research methods were adopted such as theory analysis combining with practice, and applied synthetically theory of agriculture mechanization, technology economy, optimizing theory and aid decision-system theory.更多还原