【作者】 张海峰；

【导师】 曹洪军；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境科学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 山东半岛城市群地处我国北方沿海经济发达地区,优越的区位条件和地缘优势使得山东半岛在对外开放和发展外向型经济以及同内陆腹地的联系中具有独特优势,同时良好的国内外环境也为该区的发展提供了广阔的空间。但是伴随着经济的快速发展以及工业化和城市化进程的加快,环境与发展的矛盾日益明显与加剧,保护生态环境、实现可持续协调发展将是山东半岛城市群发展的关键。 本文以山东半岛城市群为研究对象,在对生态环境资源、社会经济发展及其互动关系等定性分析的基础上,运用系统动力学的方法模拟和诊断半岛城市群生态环境与经济相互关系,通过仿真模拟运算,在所有方案中,环境与经济协调发展程度相对较优的仅处于中级协调发展水平,均未达到良好或优质发展水平。表明山东半岛城市群地区生态环境在今后区域发展过程面临着严重挑战;这也从另一方面表明根据山东半岛城市群的现状区情,寻找该区生态环境与社会经济的相对协调发展模式的现实意义;最后根据仿真结果确定山东半岛城市群协调发展几种模式,为制定半岛城市群发展战略提供理论依据。全文共分为七个部分: 第一部分提出问题。介绍了山东半岛城市群目前发展的基本状况以及面临的主要问题,提出了研究山东半岛城市群生态环境与经济协调发展模式的必要性。 第二部分系统阐述了有关研究的理论基础,包括系统动力学理论、生态经济学理论、可持续发展理论和生态经济学理论,并提出了半岛城市群协调发展的指导原则。 第三部分定性分析山东半岛城市群社会经济子系统,主要对经济发展水平、产业结构水平、经济地域结构状况、工业化进程、外向型经济发展状况、人口发展状况、城市化水平、科技发展水平进行了系统分析。 第四部分为山东半岛城市群生态环境子系统的定性分析部分。对山东半岛城市群生态系统的构成与特征、自然资源情况、生态环境条件、城市群生态建设情况进行了分析。 第五部分对山东半岛城市群生态环境与经济发展进行了相关分析。主要从社会经济发展与生态环境的相互影响角度进行了定性分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is located in the North coastal developed area of our country. With super section condition and geographical advantages, it has especial advantage in opening up to the outside world, the development of export-oriented economy and the contact ion with the inner part of it. At the same time, the good domestic and international environment gives the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration enomorous development opportunity, but with the speedy development of economy, industrialization and urbanization, the contradiction between environment and development becomes more and more stressful and severe. Protecting ecological environment and realizing sustainable development will be the key to the development of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration in future.The paper takes the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as the research target , simulates and diagnose the mutual relationship between ecological environment and socioeconomic development by the method of System Dynamics, based on the qualitative analysis of the ecological environmental resources, socioeconomic development and their mutual relationship of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. According to the simulation results , the relatively better coordinate degree between environment and economics is merely in the middle rank of harmonious level without achieving the excellent level. It demonstrates that Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration will be faced with serious challenge in its future development ; on the other hand, it also shows us the realisticmeaning of looking for the relatively excellent pattern of ecological environment and socioeconomic development, according to this area’ s present situation. At the end of this paper, it gives several harmonious patterns of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, providing the theory foundation for formulating developing strategy of this district. The whole paper includes seven parts:Part 1: present the question. The paper introduces the recent development of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration and the main problems it faced, and presents the necessity of researching the coordinative patterns between ecological environment and socioeconomic development of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.Part 2: In this part, pose relative theoretical basis, including the System Dynamics theory, Ecological Economics theory and Sustainable Development theory, and also present some fundamental principles for the development of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.Part 3: analyze the economic system of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration qualitatively, mainly analyze the recent development of economy, industry, industrialization, export-oriented economy , population .urbanization, etc.Part 4: analyze the ecological environment system of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration qualitatively, mainly analyze the development of compositions and characteristics of the ecosystem, the resources, ecological environment, peninsula urban agglomeration ecological construction, etc.Part 5: make the principal components analysis to the ecological environment and social economic development of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. Mainly analyze the mutual effects between ecological environment and social economic development.Part 6: apply the System Dynamics fundamental theory and method, byanalyzing dynamics behavior of the ecological environment and social economic system of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, make the SD pattern, draw the ten patterns of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration by simulating in the following twenty years. Such as, natural development pattern, rapid growth pattern of population and economy, ordinary growth pattern of population and economy, slow growth pattern of population and economy, pattern of rapid economic growth and ordinary resources environmental protection, pattern of relatively fast economic growth and ordinary resources environmental protection, pattern of ordinary economic growth and environmental protection, intensive ecology, pattern of slow economic growth and environmental protection, intensive ecology, environmental protection, intensive and ecological pattern, then use coordinative degree to analyze the ten patterns quantitatively, decide three coordinative development plans of action.Finally analyze the conclusion, innovation and shortcomings of this article.更多还原