【作者】 李晓峰；

【导师】 徐玖平；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 技术创新是现代经济增长的主要源泉,也是提高企业竞争力、促进企业持续发展的主要途径。然而,技术创新是一项高风险活动,有可能由于外部环境的不确性、技术创新项目的难度与复杂性以及企业实力的有限性而导致技术创新活动延期、中止、失败或达不到预期的技术经济指标。这不仅会引发财务风险而导致企业发生有形的损失,而且还会导致时间损失、机会损失、管理损失等无形损失。在传统计划经济体制下,我国企业长期躺在国家的怀抱里,缺乏风险意识和抵抗风险能力,因而在现阶段的市场经济中,企业难以适应和处理与日俱增的纷繁复杂的风险,这已成为我国企业技术创新的一大障碍。随着全球经济一体化进程的加快,我国企业转机建制与国际市场接轨的过程中,企业如何防范技术创新中的各种各样的风险,积极寻求技术变革带来的机会,提高预防和控制技术创新风险的能力及自我创新的能力,已是一项非常重要而又相当紧迫的任务。因此,应给予企业技术创新风险管理充分的重视。 目前,国内外关于技术创新风险问题的研究虽然取得了不少成果,但是这些研究却存在一些不足,主要是:零散研究较多,系统性研究不足;案例性研究较多,理论性研究不足;定性、定量分别研究较多,相互结合不足;概念、方法上的分歧较多,相互之间沟通融汇不足。 基于此,本文在广泛吸收和借鉴国内外现有研究成果的基础上,密切联系我国企业技术创新风险的实际状况,本着有效性、系统性、实用性和可靠性的原则,注重定量分析与定性分析、理论分析和实证研究、哲理、事理与数理相结合的方针,以系统论、风险管理、管理心理学、统计学、开拓集、粗糙集、神经网络、运筹学等作为理论基础,深入研究了企业技术创新的风险因素、风险测度、风险决策、风险预警等问题,提出了一些新的概念、原理和方法。 文中首先对技术创新和技术创新风险的产生及发展作了详细阐述,并在探讨国内外学者对技术创新及技术创新风险的一些较为具有代表性的定义后,界定了这两个概念的基本内涵,给出了较为明确的定义。随之,对技术创新风险更多还原

【Abstract】 The technological innovation is not only the main headspring of the modern and economic growth, but also main way that improves the competition ability of enterprises. It can promote the development of enterprises continuously. However, as the technological innovation is a kind of high risk activity, probably caused by uncertain exterior environment, technological difficulty and complexity and the restricted enterprise strength, the technological innovation may be postponed, terminated, or fail, or can not reach the anticipant economic index. This will not only cause the financial risk that the enterprise lost its money, but also cause loss of time, opportunity, management resource etc. Under the traditional planned economy system, the enterprises of our country lie for a long period in national bosom, which lack risk consciousness and ability to resist risk. Therefore under the market economy change, it is very difficult for these enterprises to deal with the increasing steadily, numerous and complicated risk, which has become a big obstruction of the technological innovation of our country enterprises. Along with the global process of economic integration, the enterprises of our country are changing their mechanism and jointing with international market, how to guard against the various risk within the technological innovation, look for the opportunity that technological transform brings, improve the ability of self-innovation and the ability of prevention and control technological innovation risk, has been very important and fairly urgent tasks. Therefore, we should pay fully attention to the risk management of enterprise technological innovation.At present, The domestic and international researches about the risk problems of technological innovation have gotten a lot of accomplishments, but theseresearches have some shortages, which mainly are Scattered researches study more than system researches, cases study more than theories researches, quantitative analyses and qualitative analyses study more than mutual combination researches, more different opinions of the concepts and methods, less mutual amalgamation between them.Based on above, this dissertation connects the actual condition of enterprises technological innovation risk of our country closely, on the foundation of domestic and international existing research accomplishment, in the light of the effective, systemic, practical and dependable principles, emphasizes the guideline of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, the theories analysis and the substantial evidence research, philosophic theories and matter reason and mathematics combine together, takes System Analysis, Risk Management, Management Psychology and Statistics, Extension Set, Rough Set, Nerve Network and Operational Research .and so on, as theoretical foundation. The main aims here to study these problems of risk factors, risk measure, risk decision, risk early warning of enterprise technological innovation drastically, and put forward some new concepts, principles and methods.At first, the produce and development of technological innovation are elaborated in detail in this dissertation. After discussing these representative definitions about technological innovation risk that was denned by domestic and international scholar, the basic signification of this two concepts are limited, and very explicit definition is define. After this, the type partition and the reasons that technological innovation risk produces, the risk stage of technological innovation are discussed. Then existence, duality, objectivity, subjective, complexity, controllability and accumulate are proposed as seven basic characteristics of technological innovation risk, and technological innovation information uncertainty decreasing theorem, technological innovation schemes decreasing theorem, technological innovation risk loss increasing theorem, technological innovation time theorem, technological innovation expenditure incapability forecast theorem are proposed as five inner laws of technological innovation risk. These theories es-tablish solid foundation for the following researches of this dissertation.For the sake of accurate, overall and efficient reflecting the various present risk and latent risks within enterprise technological innovation, the 48 factor indexes system of enterprises technological innovation risk is set up. While design the factor indexes system, five principles of the following are considered: system and overall, conciseness and science, harmony and accord, comparison and analysis, adapting national situation. On foundation of these principles, the specific method that designs the factor indexes system of enterprises technological innovation risk is put forward. According to 92 factor indexes system brought forward by Benaroch, 103 factor indexes system brought forward by Rubenstein, factor indexes system brought forward by Cooper, the author eliminates three sorts of factor indexes: firstly, these factor indexes that was designed repeatedly; secondly, these factor indexes that do not adapt national conditions; thirdly, these influence indistinctive factor indexes that have been proved by evidence analyses and statistical tests. 20 factor indexes is selected directly from these factor indexes system, and in the light of the signification of risk, the 20 factor indexes’ appellations are changed, which can make Chinese people understand them easily; transforming these repetitive factor indexes, then forming 15 factor indexes; by studies and discusses with the relevant specialists, scholars, functionaries of enterprises, 13 factor indexes are added according to the situation of China. Thus the 48 risk factor indexes system has been established. The questionnaire is designed to research and analyze the 48 risk factor indexes, which can guarantee the indexes system that is set up reasonably and scientifically, and make the 48 risk factor indexes factually reflect actual risk level of Chinese enterprises technological innovation.Based on the identification and estimate of enterprise technological innovation risk factors, the Extension-Matter-Element model of risk measure of enterprise technological innovation and Rough-ANN model of risk measure of enterprise technological innovation are established, make use of them synthesize to analyze the influence of risk factors of enterprise theological innovation. The Matter-Element concept and extension idea are applied to establish the Extension-Matter-Element model of risk measure of enterprise technological innovation, which embodies the mutual unification of quality and quantity. In the course of establishing of this model, it is put forward character matter-element law, main character matter-element law, risk near degree theorem, risk location theorem, risk correlation degree theorem and risk attribute law. On foundation of these laws and theorems, extension measure method of technological innovation risk is built, which provides new way for the evaluation of technological innovation risk. This method can not only calculate the enterprise technological innovation integrative risk and each factor of technological innovation risk grade, but also overall and clearly give qualitative and quantitative appraisement to enterprise technological innovation risk, reflecting the advantage and inferior position of enterprise technological innovation. The author combines rough set theories with artificial nerve network method to establish the Rough-ANN model of risk measure of enterprise technological innovation. It takes the advantages of the informational reduction principle of rough set theories and ANN predominance which has stronger concurrent processing, approach advantage and sort study capability. Thus the model may simulate the mankind’s abstracting logic thinking and image intuitive thought to measure enterprise technological innovation risk. This model can identify the main attributes of technological innovation risk, reduce the information accumulate cost of risk measure, improve the efficiency of risk measure, make the sophisticated problem of technological innovation risk measure simplified. Therefore, this model has better practice operability. Above two kinds of risk measure models can be adopted to different enterprises. Some enterprises accumulating less technological innovation items, or engaging in the item that is unprecedented and new in all fields without information to reference, even without the same kind of items, should adopt Extension-Matter-Element model to measure technological innovation risk. Some enterprises accumulating many technological innovation items, especially the same kind of technological innovation items accumulating more comparatively, should adopt Rough-ANN model tomeasure technological innovation risk when they engage in similar technological innovation items.The risk decision of technological innovation has the characteristics of half-baked information, dynamic track, diversiform goal, reliant countermeasure, limited reason. Therefore, the decision of technological innovation is relatively difficult and complex. In this dissertation, the behaviors of decision-makers are analyzed in detail in the course of technological innovation risk decision, and the three-layer and ten-step pattern of risk decision of technological innovation are given. On this foundation, the two-stage analytical idea of technological innovation item decision, abjuration rule, combination rule, terminate decision rule are brought forward. According to these rules, it is established the two-stage decision model of single item of technological innovation and combinatorial items of technological innovation, the two-stage terminate decision model of individual item of technological innovation and group items of technological innovation. These models are used to analyze technological innovation item not only from economic angle, but also the objective risk of technological innovation items and the subjective risk of decision-maker. Thus this overcomes the shortcoming that a lot of scholars analyze the risk decision and terminate decision of technological innovation items from one angle, which can make the risk decision and terminate decision of technological innovation items more reasonable and scientific, guide the practice better.The purpose to research risk factors, risk measure and risk decision is to guard against various risk of enterprise technological innovation better, reduce unnecessary loss and strengthen enterprise self-innovation ability. On foundation of studying these subjects, the risk early warning supervision system of enterprise technological innovation is built. In the course of building this system, the following principles are embodied: overall principle, practicality principle, operability principle, early-warning principle, qualitative and quantitive combine together principle. The risk early warning supervision system of enterprise technological innovation is made up of eight interrelate subsystems, which are informationstorage subsystem, information handing subsystem, risk analysis criterion subsystem, risk measure subsystem, early warning discretion subsystem, tracking and supervising subsystem, preventive countermeasure subsystems and early-warning information output and alarm subsystems. It is analyzed the run mode, organize way, early warning pattern of the risk early warning supervision system of enterprise technological innovation, which make this system play positive role in practice, provide convenient, fast operating platform for dynamic early warning of enterprise technological innovation risk, accelerate the risk reaction speed of enterprise, have the stronger actual application worth.For guarding against the risk within the enterprise technological innovation better, it is brought forward the macroscopic guard against countermeasures and microcosmic guard against countermeasures, which can make enterprises use pre-controlling countermeasures reasonably to resist and avoid risk in the course of technological innovation.In order to apply the various theories and methods of enterprise technological innovation established in this dissertation to the practice, the author has visited Chengdu’s Science and Technological Department, Statistical Bureau, High and New Technological Industrial Zone, the Medium and Small Enterprises Supervision Department, 42 big and medium-sized enterprises, has collected a great deal of data and information, establishes solid foundation for the demonstration researches. In the course of calculating and analyzing, the author applies the computer software program and these models that are established in this dissertation to handle some data and information scientifically and again and again, and eventually, make the model of establishment can be validated. In the course of case analysis, the author summarizes the results of case research duly, puts forward technological innovation items selecting decision principle and terminating decision principle, which can make people apply these methods to practice, help enterprises to carry out the risk decision of technological innovation items. Therefore, this has important guiding role.In this dissertation, the author analyzes and discusses risk theories, riskfactors, risk measure, risk decision of enterprise technological technology, and so on, which have important promoting role for richening and perfecting enterprise technological innovation risk management and technological innovation economy, and make contribution for technological innovation frame, technological strategic theoretical frame and technological innovation risk theoretical frame. At the same time, these are also helpful to discuss and exploit the cross field of technological innovation economy and enterprise risk management- technological innovation risk. Undoubtedly, these researches are also helpful to develop and consummate technological innovation risk.更多还原