【作者】 胡知能；

【导师】 徐玖平；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 企业管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 技术扩散、技术创新与本国利用知识的能力是经济增长的主要因素,对于发达国家来说.扩散与创新对经济增长的作用同样重要;而对于半工业化国家和地区来说,扩散对经济增长的贡献远大于创新,因此,对技术扩散进行理论上的规范研究与相应的实证研究显得很有必要。 创新产品扩散与工艺/流程创新扩散是技术扩散的两个重要内容,在整个技术产品开发过程中,产品投放市场部分通常是最为昂贵、风险最大且管理最有欠缺的部分。在创新产品推出后,什么因素影响顾客采用率和创新产品的扩散就成为一个重要的研究问题,从企业的角度来看、其营销策略就需要适应于创新产品市场扩散的过程。因此,本研究主要集中于创新产品市场扩散问题进行分析,并且集中于创新产品市场扩散模型的研究。 应用动态分析的方法对创新产品市场扩散过程及其影响因素进行了分析对创新产品市场扩散进行了建模分析,主要考虑了影响创新产品市场扩散的主要因素——价格、广告与营销渠道。首先,在单类创新产品扩散模型中分析了首次购买模型与重复购买模型,并且对单类模型从两个方向进行了扩展讨论。一个方面是扩展创新产品扩散为多类扩散,在多类创新产品扩散模型中分析了竞争扩散、互补扩散与衍生扩散等问题:另一个方面是分析了季节因素、扩散阶段性与消费者的异质性等模型。在此基础之上,建立了基于营销策略的创新产品市场扩散模型群体系。该体系能系统地描述创新产品扩散过程,包括对创新产品市场引入时间、扩散阶段性、季节因素、产品使用寿命、消费体验滞后时间以及消费者的异质性进行定量描述。 以基于营销策略的创新产品市场扩散模型群为基础、分析了价格策略的闭更多还原

【Abstract】 Technology diffusion, technology innovation and knowledge utilization are main factors for economic growth. For developed countries, the diffusion and innovation are equal important for growth; for developing countries, the effect of diffusion to growth is far bigger than one of innovation. Therefore, on study of technology is very important with not only normative, methods but also empirical methods.Technology diffusion includes innovation diffusions of production and process. During the development process of technological products, the marketing of product is usually the most costly, dangerous and management-needed. Thus, the factors affect the adoption and diffusion of products becomes a need studied problem. And marketing must be suitable to the diffusion process of innovation products. Accordingly, this paper focuses on the diffusion problem of innovation product, especially focuses on the models of the market diffusion of innovation products.The paper analyzes the diffusion process of innovation product and the factors affecting the process with dynamic methods. Then the paper builds the models for innovation diffusion process by considering the main factors affectinginnovation production diffusion, i.e. price change, advertising and place. Firstly, the single product diffusion models are classified into first purchase models and repeat purchase models. The models are expanded with two directions: the one side is the multi-product diffusion models which are classified into competition diffusion models, complementary diffusion modes, and contingent diffusion models; the other side is the models for consideration of stage character of diffusion, seasonal factors and heterogeneity of customs. Thus the paper builds the models systems of diffusion of innovation product incorporating marketing strategies. This model systems can represent the diffusion process of innovation production systematically, which includes introduction time of the production, stage character of diffusion, seasonal factors, use life of production, lagged time of Experience and heterogeneity of customs.On the basis of above diffusion models, the paper discusses the optimal control model of closed-loop price strategy. Those models include not only first purchase pricing models and repeat purchase pricing models, but also competition pricing diffusion models and complementary pricing diffusion models. For specified pricing strategy, the paper also presents optimal control model systems for introduction time of product. Then the paper analyzes the effect of feedback strategies and competition strategies for skimming pricing and penetration pricing. The paper also builds the dynamical systems of price change and innovation adoptions, and shows the equilibrium of the market and corresponding stability analysis.The paper discusses promotion strategies based on the same diffusion models. Firstly, the paper discusses the optimal control model of closed-loop advertising strategy. Those models include not only single diffusion models, but also competition case and complementary case. The complementary advertising models show the theoretical basis of complementary marketing. The paper also builds optimal control models of closed-loop price-advertising strategies with specified price strategies. Secondly, the paper studies the product sampling with the specified price strategies. The paper presents various promotion models, and analyzesthe sampling with the simulation methods.Based on the same diffusion models, the paper builds optimal control models for mixed strategies of price, advertising and place, the models show the theoretical basis of integrated marketing. For e-marketing, the paper presents CA model incorporating marketing strategies, the model can depict stage characters of diffusion process and heterogeneity of consumers. The simulation shows that the results are contingent to the actual sales of innovation products, and shows that the model can be used to forecast the diffusion for innovation products. After the analysis of the model, the paper presents some directions to build the models which are more suitable to the actual process of innovation products.On the empirical study of market models of innovation production diffusion, the paper discusses the internet users firstly. The paper discusses the relations between the diffusion models based on the production and the diffusion models based on the consumers. The errors of the results are very small, then the paper gives some predictions of internet adoptions. Secondly, the paper analyzes PLC with the help of the diffusion model of innovation production. And the paper shows the structures of supply chain on the basis of market models of innovation production.Considering the complexity of diffusion model systems of innovation production, the paper presents software functions of the diffusion models of innovation production incorporating marketing strategies, namely EBASS software. After the analysis of development ideas for the software, the paper put forwards a way to solve the data dilemma by using Industrial data and meta-data. Then the paper show the structures of marketing DSS based on the market models of innovation production, especially discusses the functions and design ideas of the DSS.更多还原