【作者】 郭忠兴；

【导师】 李岳云；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 1999， 博士

【摘要】 粮食的稳定供给是在一定政策背景和制度环境下实现的。一切制度安排和政策因素都可能影响收入分配和资源配置效率。因此,包含政府农业政策变量的农产品供给反应模型理应受到重视。本文除了导言外,可以依据研究内容的不同分为上下两篇。上篇侧重于文献的综述,旨在为下篇进行的实证研究做铺垫。上篇的三章分别从不同的角度展开论述。第一章以明确界定制度、政策的内涵、以及二者之间的相互交融关系为切入点,将讨论延伸至制度和政策因素影响农业发展绩效的机理,最后将结果应用于中国农业发展中有关问题的分析,使之以粮食的稳定供给为归宿。第二章则简要地回顾了70 年代末期以来的重大农业生产经营体制变革和相应的粮食经济政策调整过程,以便为此后进行的实证研究提供背景资料。同时,鉴于制度和政策对粮食生产和供给影响的间接性、多维性、多层面,作者通过对这些因素作用效果进行简单定性分析评判,筛选出了重要的影响变量。第三章则力图运用现代经济学的基本原理阐明农产品供给的基本特征及其影响因素,为后文的分析提供理论依据。下篇也分为三章。第四章和第五章分别从增长和波动两个层面展开分析。从影响粮食供给增长和供给波动两个角度展开的制度和政策效果分析就涵盖了制度和政策因素对粮食供给影响的全部内容。这一部分也是本文的研究重点。第四章首先运用折线回归测算了不同阶段江苏粮食增长的情况,以准确把握各个阶段的增长特征;然后作者尝试性地构建了政策和制度变量,并结合1982 年至1997 年江苏省11 市的混合数据(pool data)分别构建了包含制度和政策因素的分作物品种的粮食生产函数模型、包含制度和政策因素的供给反应函数模型(具有适应性预期的误差纠正模型),通过直接衡量这些因素变化的影响,实现了传统要素投入变动的贡献与制度变迁、政策调整贡献的分离。最后,分析了对上述方程运用似乎无关联(SUR)方法和系统估计方法(System Approach)估计的结果。第五章运用统计分析技术对江苏省粮食、稻谷、小麦播种面积和总产量波动的特征、影响因素进行了较全面的分析,获得了有重要政策含义的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper reports results of an empirical study on effects of institutional changes and intervention policies on grain supply. The evidences show that institutional arrangements may have some impacts on income distribution and efficiency of resource allocation. Therefor, some efforts should be made to estimate farm product response in the presence of farm programs and intervention policies. Pool data (time-series and cross-section data) from 11 prefectures of Jiangsu province, P.R.China during the period of 1982 –1997 were used for this project. This paper can be divided into there sections. Section one is introduction. Section two emphasizes on giving a brief summarization on literatures, which aims to build theoretical framework for empirical analysis of section there. Section two includes three chapters, where three different point of views were discussed Chapter two defined the meaning of institution and policy, discussed the cross relation between institution and policy, and extended it to mechanism of institution and policy on agriculture development performance. Then the relevant results of discussion were used to analyze some issues in Chinese grain sector. For providing a whole background of the following empirical study, brief reviews on important institutional changes and policy adjustment processes were made in chapter two. Contemporarily, important policy variables were identified by qualitative analysis. In chapter three, fundamental economic principles were employed to capture the characters of farm product supply, and explain factors affect ting agriculture supply. Empirical study has been carried out on growth and variability of grain production which composing the first two chapters of section there. First, in order to describe the characters of grain growth in each phase well and truly, the average growth ratio of grain, rice, and wheat in different phase were calculated by turn-over-line regression. Second, production function and supply response function of grain, rice, and wheat in the presence of institutional proxy variable and policy settlement variables were established, pool data (time-series and cross-section data) of 11 prefectures of Jiangsu province P.R.China from 1982 to 1997 were used to make analysis. Seeming Unrelated Regression (SUR) method and System Approach (SA) estimation method were introduced to improve estimation efficiency, and the results turned up trumps. At last, we make comprehensive use of traditional and modern statistical techniques to analyze features of planted acreage and production variability of grain, rice, and wheat respectively in chapter five. Some important conclusions were drawn from empirical study. These are as following: (a) The findings indicate that the dominant source of grain output growth during 1982-1984 period was the implementation of the HRS (household responsibility system), and foods poke nomarch response system (FPNRS) also promoted effectively short-term production and supply growth. Although it led to 2.2%, 7.6%, and 10.9% of growth in rice, grain, and wheat planted acreage respectively, it is still doubtful for it’s long run effects. Procurement price had a positive impact on farmers’grain supply response. Farmers are sensitive to relative price between grain crops and cash crops. (b) Among traditional inputs, land holds the highest production elasticity. This implies that inducing farmers to allocate heir cultivate land between grain production and non-grain production, or even among vary cereals should be stressed in following administration. (c) More investment should be taken in enhancing wheat rather than rice production construction by government. (d) The minimum absolute value of the elasticity in planted acreage to the proportion of procurement quota with total production implies that it is unnecessary to worry about that procurement quota cutting down will cause planted acreage decline. (e) In general, the stability of Jiangsu Province is better than those of its parts. The implementation of the HRS and the FPNRS act as adding fuel to fire to the variability of grain production and supply. (f) The main source of production and supply variability came from main grain production region rather than developed region. Future policy design should avoid sympathetic vibration of production and supply variability among regions. That means the principle of comparative advantages must be observed. In chapter six of section there, more attention was paid to analyzing present grain marketing reform plan, and some suggestions were given.更多还原