养老保险基金收益保障机制及其运营模式创新研究

【作者】 林志宗；

【导师】 王桂新；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 本文以养老保险的人口经济学理论为基础,通过应用和拓展“叠代模型”,分析了中国人口转变和经济发展对中国养老保险制度改革的现实影响与威胁,指出中国目前的养老保险制度改革中正面临以下四方面的突出矛盾和问题:一是养老保险制度改革与经济转型的不协调发展是导致个人账户空账运行的根源;二是制度设计存在缺陷,政府在一定程度上转嫁了转轨成本,造成市场经济下追求利润最大化的企业普遍存在的“逃费行为”;三是养老保险基金管理不规范也在一定程度上影响了新制度的实行;四是企业补充养老保险还处于起步阶段,存有很多问题,尚不足以为基本养老保险提供补充等。本文探讨了造成上述问题的原因,认为:人口老龄化进程的加剧使得目前养老保险制度运行中暴露的“空账”、转轨成本、隐性债务以及养老保险缺口等问题“雪上加霜”,在人口老龄化日益加剧的形势下,现行养老保险制度将面临更加严重的财务困境和支付危机;中国养老保险制度改革的关键在于如何处理养老保险统筹基金账户与个人账户的关系,如何应对现实的和潜在的养老保险支付问题;在目前缴费率上升空间不大的情况下,良好的养老保险制度必须设计和建立一套高效的养老保险收益机制,从养老保险基金的运营和管理入手,以实现养老保险基金的保值增值、提高养老保险基金的收益来应对人口老龄化带来的支付危机。基本养老保险制度是否拥有一套高效的养老保险收益机制是影响和决定中国养老保险制度改革能否取得成功的重要因素。在以上基础上,通过对以养老保险收益保障机制设计为重点的养老保险改革模式的理论和实证研究,本文给出了解决上述问题的答案及进行基金制养老保险模式改革的配套措施和相关政策建议。 本文主要研究结论如下: (1) 解决养老保险制度改革中的转轨成本问题。养老保险统筹基金账户不应仅由企业负担,而应由政府和企业共同负担。通过对中国养老保险制度改革目前统筹基金账户和现收现付账户混合管理与分离管理的测算与比较分析认为,为解决养老保险制度改革中的转轨成本问题,养老保险统筹基金账户不应仅由企业负担,而应由政府和企业共同负担。 (2) 实行统筹基金账户和个人基金账户分离运行。统筹账户部分基金制和个人账户的完全基金制的养老保险模式。由于面临经济欠发达、人口加剧老龄化的挑战,因此中国的养老保险制度改革必须尽快对统筹基金账户和个人基金账户进行改革,实行统筹基金账户和个人基金账户分离运行,统筹基金账户部分基金制和个人账户的完全基金制。统筹基金账户与个人账户完全分离,统筹更多还原

【Abstract】 This text is based on economics theories of endowment insurance, through using and expanding" Samuelson overlapping-generations model ", analyzed that the pension system of our country is influenced and threatened by the population transition of our country and economic development reform , pointed out that our country’s present pension system reform is facing conspicuous contradiction and problem of four following respects in: (1)pension fund system reform and economic transition in no- harmony cause personal account empty ; (2)System design has defects , the government has shifted the transition cost to a certain extent, cause enterprise don’t like to pay the pension fund because of pursuing of profit maximize; (3)pension fund operation at present influence the operation of new system to a certain extent too; (4)annuity at starting stage is not enough as supplement to offer for basic endowment insurance also. Article adopts and probes into the reason of above-mentioned problems, think: Aggravation of aging population process make basic pension system exposed " empty account " of running at present, " disasters pile up on one another " for such questions as transition cost , recessive debt and pension shortfall ,etc, under the situation aggravated day by day in aging population, will face more serious financial predicament and payment crisis in current pension fund system; The key to the reform of pension fund system of our country lies in how to deal with the relation between "plan as a whole" pension fund account and personal account, how to tackle reality and potential pension payment problem; In a situation that it is impossible to raising the pension rate at present, must design and set up the mechanism of the guaranteed yield for pension fund, in order to realize the value preserving and appreciation of the pension fund so to deal with the payment crisis brought by aging population. On the basis of the above, this text provides the answer of solving above-mentioned problems and carries on the supplementary measure of fund mode reform of pension funds and relevant policy recommendations. The main conclusion of this text is as follows:First, solve the transition cost problem in the pension system reform, "plan as a whole" account of the endowment insurance should not be only born by enterprise,but born together by the government and enterprise.Second, "plan as a whole" account should separate from personal account, "plan as a whole" account partly fund operation and personal account full fund operation mode. Because face the challenge of aging population, so pension system reform of our country must carry on as soon as possible, "plan as a whole" account only offers the transitional pension of " old man " and " middle man ", the personal account offers the basic pension of " new man " and " middleman ". Fund mode should be the reality choose and inevitable outcome for our country basic pension system reform.Thirdly, set up risk categorized income security mechanism based on the defined benefit and defined contribution systen.—"plan as a whole" account make some minimum income security mechanism and promise personal account fund income security mechanism. The security mechanism goal should be base on the premise that pay the fees basically and the basic income is reciprocated, control the investment risk of the pension fund, in order to obtain the higher investment return. While carrying on the income security mechanism design of the pension fund, must fully consider the special circumstances of our country, classify designing. Particularly, the pension fund income security mechanism of our country should include two major parts : "plan as a whole" account income security mechanism and personal account fund income security mechanism. There are some minimum income security mechanism in "plan as a whole" account, no matter in what case, individual can all get the minimum pension income ; Under the personal account fund income security mechanism , the enterprise is a sponsor of the fund, enterprises sign the minimum pension income contract with government and promise the contract. Namely no matter how the fund runs, individual can get the pension that is not smaller than minimum pension income after retiring; Meanwhile, when the fund investment return is greater than, the excess part will belong to enterprise. While carry on risk pension fund income security mechanism design demonstration with real example getting following two conclusion of deriving: (l)under fund mode system, Endowment insurance pay rate closely related with assets and investment repayment ,etc. Under other parameter certain terms, paying rate and assets allocation changed in the same direction; The higher the proportion of risk更多还原