均衡汇率理论与人民币汇率政策研究

【作者】 李天栋；

【导师】 许少强；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 自2002年以来,人民币面临着巨大的升值压力。根据传统的金融理论,经常项目持续顺差与外汇储备的持续增长应该使人民币升值。那么,人民币是否应该升值?对这一问题的回答不应该完全依据西方传统的国际金融理论,因为它与我国经济的具体情况和发展阶段是脱节的。 我国经济的具体国情包括两个方面的内容:一是我国正处于经济体制改革的过程中,经济转型的过程中的经济制度有其独特性;二是我国正处于经济增长的关键阶段,现在是能否超越低水平的经济增长阶段而进入高水平的经济增长阶段的关键时期。汇率决定和调整必然也受这两个因素的影响。一方面,我国的资本账产是管制的,在未来一段时期内仍然有必要继续实行管制,而货币市场、资本市场和外汇市场的欠发达也注定我国不能在目前就从固定汇率制度转变为浮动汇率制度,这是不得不接受的制度前提;另一方面,经济增长阶段不同,汇率的作用也必然有差异,应该根据经济增长阶段决定汇率政策,这就需要分析汇率在经济增长中的作用。 均衡汇率理论依然是西方国际金融理论的传统范式,它无助于解决我国的现实情况,因此需要修正甚至重新界定,只有这样才能够应用于我国。 本文对内外部均衡的内涵予以重新界定,赋予内外均衡新的内涵并规定了内外部均衡不同的重要性,这是分析的基础和起点。 在上述分析的基础上,本文将整个社会经济区分为贸易品和非贸易品两个部门。汇率会影响两个部门的价格并影响其收益率,这会导致资本在两个部门之间的流动即进行重新配置,资本的重新配置既包括资本总量的变化,也包括资本在部门间分布的结构变化。资本重新配置的过程就是汇率影响经济增长的过程,汇率对经济增长的作用具体表现为资本配置效应和替代效应,这两个效应的关系就决定了汇率对经济增长作用的性质。 根据汇率在经济增长中的作用,可以得到三种不同类型的均衡汇率路径,它们是与经济增长的阶段密切相关的,经济增长所处的阶段不同,均衡汇率的路径也应该有区别。据此,就需要根据经济增长的具体阶段确定汇率政策,使之处于最合意的均衡路径上,这是汇率对经济增长具有正面的促进作用的关键所在。 根据具体条件决定汇率政策是汇率能够促进经济增长的必要条件,但还需要其他条件,即选择适当的政策工具、进行合理的政策搭配。本文提出了具体的指标,用于区分均衡汇率的不同类型。经济增长所处的阶段不同,均衡汇率的类型也就不同,需要实现的目标也必然不同,必然要求采取不同的政策工具和政策搭配,只有这样才能够实现主要目标,也才能确保汇率的作用。随后,将货币市场、更多还原

【Abstract】 From the year of 2002, Chinese RMB Yuan have faced up with the heavy pressure of revaluation. According to the traditional finance theory, continuous surplus of current account and sustained increase of foreign exchange reserves will result in the appreciation of Chinese RMB Yuan. Therefore, the question comes out whether Chinese RMB should be revaluated? To answer this question, we should not be only based on the traditional western international finance theory because it is disjointed with Chinese current economic situation and developing stage.Chinese current economic situation includes the following two contents: Firstly, in the process of economic system reform, China economic system has its unique character in the course of restructuring. Secondly, China is at a key stage of economic development that is crucial to exceed the low-level economic growth period and enter a high-level economic growth period. The decision and adjustment of exchange rate will be also influenced by these two factors inevitably. On the one hand, in China, capital account is controlled and is still necessary to be controlled for a period of time in the future. Besides, due to the underdevelopment of Chinese money market, capital market and exchange rate market, it is hard for China to change its fixed change rate to floating exchange rate, which is the system premise we should accept. On the other hand, at the different economic increase stage, exchange rate will play different role in it. We should decide the exchange rate according to the economic increase stage. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the function of exchange rate in economic growth.Equilibrium exchange rate theory is none the less one of the traditional western international finance theory. It is not suitable to Chinese current situation so that it require modification or even redefinition to be applicable in China.In this article, author analyzes the exchange rate’s function in the economic growth strategy. The success of economic growth strategy is closely related with the exchange rate policy. Afterwards, the author redefines the content of internal and external equilibrium, gives it a new meaning and describes the different importance of internal and external equilibrium, which is the start and foundation of the whole analysis.On the basis of above analysis, in this article, the whole social economy is更多还原