【作者】 张留柱；

【导师】 崔广柏；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 对水文现象的认识规律的揭示主要是依据定量的水文测量成果,而水文测量误差的存在会产生伪信息,歪曲混淆对水文现象的认识,阻碍对水文客观规律的揭示,甚至会导致出现错误信息和结论。为获得可靠的观测成果,必须研究水文测量过程中误差的大小、关系和性质,研究消除、抵偿和减弱测量误差的措施。水文观测误差的存在可能会导致观测成果之间存在着矛盾现象,这种矛盾在黄河上表现尤为突出,有些已严重影响了水文资料的合理应用和黄河重大问题的决策。因此,不仅需要深入研究水文测量误差的产生、传播与控制,还要研究消除水文测量成果之间矛盾的理论和方法。 本文以水文测量误差为主线,以最小二乘法为主要工具,以黄河水文测量中存在的各种矛盾和误差问题为研究对象,深入研究了利用最小二乘法解决水文测量误差的理论和方法。在深入开展广泛调研的基础上,确定了理论研究的范围和解决的具体工程问题,开展理论研究和系统分析,从黄河的实际问题出发,结合水文误差的性质、特点,变量之间的关系,研究了将最小二乘原理应用于具体的水文观测数据处理的理论与方法,建立了基于最小二乘原理基础的水文误差模型;根据误差匹配的原理,结合研究的实际问题,构建了建立优化的数学模型;在理论研究模型解算方法,误差评估指标基础上,选择黄河部分实测资料进行计算,并采取理论分析、实验研究、实际测量中的问题三者相结合,验证提出的理论、研究方法和和获得结论的正确性。 论文系统阐述了国内外水文测量误差研究的现状,已取得的成果,论述了现代水文测量误差的分类、概念与内涵;依据误差的传播理,研究了部分水文要素之间水文测验误差的传播关系与控制措施,讨论了系统误差和粗差的处理方法和技术途径;提出了不同性质的变量在相关分析时应区别对待的概念,提出了自变量和因变量观测值均存在误差情况下的双因子加权回归模型;系统研究了最小二乘法在水量沙量平衡中的应用,给出了河段水量沙量参数平差的误差方程,并推导出了使用性强,可操作的解算方法,黄河水量的实例平差说明,消除了实测水量之间的矛盾,提高了水文数据的可靠性。根据误差匹配的概念与原理,以实例研究了洪水涨落变化剧烈条件下,水文测站洪水期测验方案的优化问题;推导了断面法冲淤量与其测量要素之间的误差传递关系,结合实例讨论了测量断面的优化方法,计算了黄河下游合理断面密度,解决了黄河生产中的具体问题。 本文的研究成果直接解决了黄河水文测量中的一些重要问题,研究的方法提出的理论也适用于其它河流和流域,拓宽了水文测量误差研究的领域,推动了水文测量的发展。论文最后进行了系统总结,提出了径流量观测误差,误差模型中权的确定等几个需要进一步研究的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Revealing of hydrology phenomena discipline mainly depends on survey of hydrology. But the exist of hydrologic survey error yields pseud information, which may confuses understanding of hydrology phenomena, blocks the revealing of hydrology phenomena discipline, even leads to false conclusion. In order to get credible survey results, we must study the error and its elimination of hydrologic survey error. Furthermore, the survey error may leads to the contradiction of survey results, especially in Yellow River, and infects the proper use of survey results and decision-making badly. Therefore, we should not only study the generation, propagation and control of hydrologic survey error, but also the theory and method of elimination of contradiction of hydrologic survey results.Based on discussion of hydrologic survey error, this paper makes a research on settlement theory and method of hydrologic survey error using least squares combined with some key issues in the Yellow River hydrology. Based on comprehensive investigation and survey, it determines the scope of theory research and resolved individual engineering issues, then to conduct theory research and system analysis. Proceeding from actual problems involved in the Yellow River, combined with characters of hydrologic errors and relations between variables, this paper researches the theory and methods using least-squares method into individual processing of hydrologic observed data, set up a hydrologic error model based least-squares theory. According to error matching theory, combined with actual problems in research, the optimized mathematical model is established. Based on computing ways by theory models and error evaluating index, to compute using observed data chose from the Yellow River, combining the theory analysis, experimental research and problems in the actual survey, to validate the correctness of theory, researching methods and obtained conclusions. The following topics are included in the paper:Expatiating on the actual research state domestic and abroad of hydrologic survey errors. Introducing the classification, conception and notation of modern hydrology survey errors. Based on the propagation theory of errors, propagation relation and controlling measures of hydrologic survey errors of various hydrological factors are analyzed in this paper. Discussing the theory and processing ways of system errors and blunders. Putting forward a concept that variables with different characters should be treated individually in correlation analysis, double factor weighted regression model are given under the condition that both independent variable and dependent variable have errors. The issues of non-equilibrium in water and sedimentobservation on the Yellow River are discussed and the reasons are analyzed. This paper systematically discusses the application of least-squares method in water and sediment equilibrium, putting forward the error equations of parameters adjustment in river discharge, and discussing the theory and processing methods in discharge adjustment. The error equation and its solution of least-squares adjustment in the silting and scouring volume measured directly by cross-section method and sediment discharge difference method. According to actual problems involved in the Yellow River, weight issue is discussed preliminarily, which is followed by instance validation and analyzing computation of the research. Putting forward the optimized issues of high flood measuring schemes at hydrological stations under the condition of acute variation of flood fluctuation according to the theory of error matching. Based on the analysis of error classification, character and source of cross-section method, the error propagation between silting and scouring volume by cross-section method and its observation factors is studied. Combined with actual instances, this paper introduces the optimized method of observed cross-sections, calculates rational density of cross-sections on the lower reaches of Yellow River, which is the concrete problem in harnessing更多还原