【作者】 陈传波；

【导师】 王雅鹏； 丁士军；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 回首过去的二十多年，中国经济奇迹般增长，市场经济体系日渐清晰，但是由于发展的自由要优先于发展的正义，使得相当一部分农民很少能分享到经济高速增长的成果，引起了诸多问题。中央适时倡导科学的发展观，以人为本，建立一个人本中国逐渐成为时代的最强音。本文选题于农户风险及风险管理策略，无疑正当其时，具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。 中国快速的农村发展在提高农业生产力的同时也加速了深植于传统计划经济体制下的农户风险管理机制的瓦解。近些年来，尽管在农村风险管理方面也进行了许多有益的探索，但是至今仍没有一个适应市场经济发展水平的完整风险管理体系与制度。脆弱的小农户不得不直面各种风险冲击，由此导致了一系列的严重问题：诸如贫困问题、农村卫生状况问题、贫富分化问题、环境问题等等。由于缺乏正规的风险管理制度安排和风险管理工具，为了在逆境中求得生存与发展，小农户必然发展出各种策略来提供自我保障。这些策略在短期内为农户提供了一定程度的保障，但是无论是对其自身的长远利益还是对整个社会福利而言都显得成本高昂，甚至延缓了社会的转型和进一步发展。 建立统一正规的安全保障并覆盖到全部农户还不可能一蹴而就，因此视农户为风险管理的主体，深入理解农户所面临的风险以及他们管理风险的努力，从而使稀缺的资源能更好地补充农户自身的努力，一方面帮助受到严重影响的家庭和个人应付困境，另一方面也有利于增强农户的风险承担能力，使他们能增加对高收益生产活动的投资，这对于缓解贫困，增加就业，扩大内需等均具有积极意义。 本论文采用新古典的分析框架，以小农户为分析对象，运用大量一手的农户调查资料，“自下而上”地展开分析，通过案例、统计描述、计量模型等多种分析方法解释有关变量之间的相互关系及变化规律。 本论文共分十章，第一章是导言，从个人口述史和焦点小组讨论切入，提出研究的问题、目标与内容，在对风险相关问题简要综述之后，介绍论文的主要创新点及需要进一步研究的问题；第二章提出论文的整合分析框架并对关键概念进行界定，然后介绍本文的研究方法、研究程序及采用的数据；第三章研究农户的收入与支出的波动特征，利用农村住户分月数据分析各类收入支出的月度分布特征，重点在于认识农户收入波动与消费波动水平及相互关系；第四章是对农户风险的识别，先介绍基于农户认知的风险识别与评价方法，随后运用“农户的语言”以及统计描述总结农户风险种类；第五章在第四章的基础上对各类风险的损失额及发生频次进行了统计描述，最后特别地评估了干旱对农户的影响。第六章整合地总结了农户的 摘要一-一一-------一-一---一一风险管理策略以及农户对他们自身策略的认知;第七章到第九章则分别讨论农户采取的几种主要策略—社区风险分担机制、资产储蓄与变卖、多样化的生产决策，这些讨论提供了更深入的理解，第十章是本文的研究结论。 本论文的研究选题本身具有开拓与创新价值，在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础之上，立足于大量的农户调查数据，本论文的创新体现在如下几个方面: 研究选题的开创性:本论文提出的“农户风险”及“农户风险管理”目前在国内还没有类似提法，较为常见的有“农业风险”，本文认为农业风险与农户风险存在较大差异，因为农户风险并不局限于农业，同时它有明确的研究对象和行动主体，需要整合地系统地考察。 研究方法上的创新:首先，在调查过程中广泛采用了焦点小组访谈、个人口述史、深度访谈、参与式讨论等方法，在论文的写作中，部分章节运用质的研究方法，该方法的核心是参与式和开放式地“诉说”和“倾听”。其次对调查中获取的每一个定量数据均由农户给予解释，由此深化了对数据的理解。 提出农户风险及管理的分析框架:本文提出了一个分析农户风险及风险管理的理论框架，这一框架整合了农户风险及管理的关键概念:农户所面临的风险、户内资源察赋、利益相关机构与制度安排、风险认知、采用的策略、消费平滑与收入平滑等。为进一步分析农户的风险及风险管理提供了思考的方向。 通过农户风险认知整合地看待农户风险:本文提出要整合地看待农户面临的风险，要从农户认知来识别与评估风险。利用风险脆弱性地图分析方法，通过当地化的语言、不附加任何提示的开放式访谈和焦点讨论，可以找出特定地区特定类型农户的最主要风险及风险影响程度。 利用大样本月度数据分析农户收入消费的波动性:本文从农村住户数据中提取分月的收入与消费数据，分析了农户各种收入来源和消费支出的月度波动特征，发现农户工资性收入的临时性和高“失业”特征弱化了其季节性收入平滑和消费平滑功能。本文将支出分解为日常支出与大额支出，利用固定效应模型分析了农户的当期支出与当期各类收入来源之间的关系。 利用农户风险处理策略阶梯图分析中国农户的风险处理策略:农户的风险处理策略具有等级性，本文发现绝大多数中国农户的处理策略处于减少开支、运用储蓄与借贷这前三个等级之内，表?更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past two decades, China’s economy has experienced a miraculous development and its market economical system has been perfected gradually. However, because of the priority of developmental freedom to developmental tightness, a certain part of fanners seldom share the achievement of this high speed economic development, which results in a great many problems. The central government advocates the scientific development view and focuses on individuals’ livelihood. It has become the theme of the era to establish a "humanistic China". This paper chooses the small farmers’ risks and their risk management stratigies as its topic, which at such an appropriate time is significant in theory and practice.The rapid development of the rural areas in China, not only improves the productivity, but also speeds up the disorganization of the farmers’ risk managing mechanism which has ingrained in the planned economy. In recent years, much useful exploration has been carried out in the risk management of rural areas, yet no complete risk managing system fitting for the development level of the market economy has been established. Vulnerable farmers have to face a variety of risks, resulting in a series of severe problems, such as poverty, the hygiene conditions in rural areas, the polarization of poor and rich and environmental deterioration and so on. Lacking of the formal institutional arrangement of risk management and its facilities, Small farmers Households develop various kinds of strategies to provide self-protection, in order to survive and develop in the adversity. These strategies provide certain degree of protection for farmers in the short term; however, they are high costs and ineffective for the farmers’ long-term interests or the whole social welfare, even have been slowing down the social transformation and its farther development.It can not be done in an action to establish a united and regular security guarantee and cover all the farmers. Therefore, fanners should play the core roles in the risk management mechanism, and their risks and efforts in managing risks should be deeply understood. As a result, the farmers’ efforts can be compensated better by scarce resources, which on one hand can help severely-stricken families and individuals cope with difficulties, and on the other hand, is in favor of strengthening farmers’ ability of bearing risks, so as to increase their investment in productive activities of high profit, decrease discreet savings and stimulate the domestic demand.This paper adopts the neo-classical analytic framework, with micro-farmers as analytic objects and analyzes "from the bottom to the top" by using a great number of first-hand survey data. Through cases, statistic description and econometric model and other methods, it explains the correlation between key variables.The paper is divided into 10 chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction. It is put forward the studied problems, aims and content after the beginning of a personal narration and a discussion of a focus group. After the simple introduction of the relative problems of risk, the main creative points of this paper and problems needed further study are identified. In Chapter 2, the conception framework is described and several key concepts are defined, together with the introduction of the studying method, procedure and adopted data. Chapter 3 is devoted to studying the fluctuation features of farmers’ income and expenses and the monthly distribution features of the various kinds of income and expense through monthly data. It highlights the income smoothing and consumption smoothing and their correlation. Chapter 4 is to identify the farmers’ risks. First the risk identification and evaluation methods on the basis of farmers’ recognition and the categories of farmers’ risks in the "farmers’ voices" and statistical description are introduced. Based on Chapter 4, in Chapter 5 statistical description of the loss and frequency of each risk is carried out. It is especially evaluated the drought cost on farmers. In Chapter 6,更多还原