中国股市投资收益非对称及其治理研究

【作者】 谢曙光；

【导师】 谢百三；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 产业经济学， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 在1999年12月进行的国有股减持行动遭遇失败后,2001年6月我国政府再次施行通过国内股票市场进行国有股减持的政策,由于其以市价作为减持价格和以筹集社保资金为主要目的而最终再次遭遇失败。伴随着这次国有股减持从开始施行到暂停实施直至最终停止通过国内股票市场减持国有股的演变过程,国内学术界、证券界及其他各方展开了对中国证券市场的诸多问题的大讨论。尽管讨论的焦点一开始集中于国有股减持,但随着各方讨论的不断升级和市场认识的不断深化,人们逐渐认识到特定历史环境下产生的股权分裂制度是我国股票市场诸多矛盾的根源所在,继而讨论的焦点转向“股份全流通改革”。在这样的背景下,本文以类别股东(非流通股股东与流通股股东)对于上市公司的投资收益非对称为研究对象,选取“中国股市投资收益非对称及其治理研究”为题,希望通过实证分析揭示在中国股票市场上非流通股股东与流通股股东之间基于现金股利的投资收益非对称问题,并从理论上规范分析导致这种非对称现象的根源——股权分裂制度及其种种重大危害,为消除这些危害,继而全面而系统地探讨治理投资收益非对称的根本对策——股份全流通改革相关问题。在本论文的研究中,采取实证分析和理论分析相结合,运用成本收益分析和历史分析方法,以比较分析和制度分析为主的研究方法,紧紧围绕着“中国股市投资收益非对称”这一主线,厘清并描述了中国股市投资收益非对称及其治理研究的逻辑框架。在第一章中,在综述股票市场功能理论和诺斯制度与制度变迁理论的基础上,以制度决定功能的思想构建了一个理论解释模型,希望以此对中国股市投资收益非对称作出合理的解释。在第二章中,首先根据对美国学界有关流通性折价理论及其经验研究和法院判例依据,并运用IPO方法对中国B股市场上市公司非流通股权的流通性折价进行经验研究,将其与同一研究方法下美国股市的流通性折价经验结论进行对照,从而确定包括A股和B股在内的中国股市非流通股权流通性折价的相对合理基准,在此基础上最后估算出中国股市新股发行的正常溢价基准。在第三章中,首先运用上述基准将流通股股东对于上市公司的投资成本区分为正常部分和超额部分,进而将流通股股东与非流通股股东之间的投资收益率比较区分为正常非对称和不正常非对称两种情形。然后,从多角度多层次对我国股市严重的不正常投资收益非对称进行实证分析,即既从非流通股股东与流通股股东比较的角度进行总体性揭示,又从国有股股东、社会法人股股东和外资法人股与社会公众股股东比较的角度进行结构性揭示,还从不同所有制股东控股上市公<WP=10>司的角度进行整体性揭示。在第四章中,以第一章围绕制度决定功能思想构建的理论解释模型,同时运用股票市场功能理论和诺斯制度变迁理论对中国股市投资收益非对称的成因与本质进行了深入诠释,具有较好的理论解释力。第五章对中国股市投资收益非对称进行了危害性分析。投资收益非对称是问题的表象,而股权分裂制度则是问题的本质。探讨中国股市投资收益非对称的危害性,必须紧紧抓住中国股市股权分裂制度这个最主要矛盾,逐步剖析在非流通股股东与流通股股东之间投资收益非对称所引致的种种重大危害,诸如违反“三公”原则,形成“特权市场”体制;扭曲并异化非流通股股东与流通股股东的市场价值观;导致募集资金使用效率低下,致使控制性大股东行为严重异化;酿成造假成风和恶意操纵,破坏证券市场正常秩序;隐藏潜在金融危机,危及证券市场长期健康发展,等等。为了消除危害并从根本上治理投资收益非对称,唯一正确的选择则是对股权分裂制度进行全面改革,实施股份全部可流通制度,也即股份全流通改革。在最后两章中,主要回顾了国内关于股份全流通改革的探索实践,以及从国有股减持到股份全流通的演变与争论,并对现有股份全流通改革的主要方案进行比较分析,希望能从中为本论文的研究提供某些重要启示。在此基础上,本论文提出了一个新的综合性全流通改革构想,希望能够从根本上治理中国股市投资收益非对称。这个新的综合性改革构想,具体包括政府作用,非流通股采取净资产定价方式,用计划方法解决市场问题,停发新股、存量改革与“中速到位”模式,以及包括严格监管上市公司、建立市场做空机制、发展各类机构投资者并营造市场稳定舆论环境的一个积极的协调工程。这是一个包括在转轨时期尊重历史和现实、正确处理政府与市场关系、适当搭配计划与市场手段、内涵“大道至简”哲学思想和强调协调体系的“新综合”框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 The action of saling state share failed in December 1999. In June 2001, our government carried out the policy of saling state share in the stock market again. However, because saling price was market price and its purpose was financing social protection fund, it failed again. As the change process of this saling state share changed from start to end, domestic theothetical field and stock field discussed China securities market problems heatedly. Though the discussion focused on saling state share initially, share-right divided system was gradually regarded as the source producing many contradictions in Chinese stock market under the special historical environment as the discussion deepened. As a result, the focus of discussion was concentrated in the reform of all-share floating. Under this background, the study object of the dissertation is the asymmetry of investment benefit among different shareholders. The title is “Study on the asymmetry of investment benefit and its governance. The purpose of study is to reveal the asymmetry of investment benefit based on cash divident between non-floating share shareholders and floating share shareholders, theothetically analyse the source caused this asymmetry problem and its harmfulness, and systematically explore the basic measure-- “reforming all-share floating its related problems” for changing the asymmetry of investment benefit.In the process of study, the combination between experimental analysis and theothetical analysis will be applied. The dissertation also applies the research methods of cost-benefit analysis and historical analysis. The main reseach methods are comparative analysis and system analysis. The topic is concentrated on the asymmetry of investment benefit in Chinese stock market. The dissertation includes 7 chapters.In Chapter 1, based on the theory of stock market function and the theory of North’s institution and its change, the dissertation uses the thought of institution deciding function to build a theothetical explanation model for rationally explaining the asymmetry of investment benefit in Chinese stock market.In Chapter 2, consulting the theothetical and experimental research <WP=8>results about the discounts of marketability completed by American learners and cases in court of justice in America, the dissertation applies IPO method experimentally to study the marketability discounts of non-floating share of B-share listed companies. By comparing between two research results, the relative rational standard of non-floating share-right’s marketability discount in Chinese stock market is determined. Based on the above research, the dissertation estimates the rational spill-price level of the listed companoes’ IPO in Chinese stock market.In Chapter 3, using the above standard, the dissertation divides the investment cost to listed companied into two parts: normal part and excess part, and divides the comparation of investment benefit rate between floating shareholders and non-floating shareholders into two situations: normal asymmetry and anormal asymmetry.In Chapter 4, the dissertation applies the theothetical explanation model built around the thought of system deciding function, the theory of stock market function and North’s system change theory to explain the reasons and essence of the investment benefit asymmetry in Chinese stock market. Chapter 5 analyses the harmfulness of the investment benefit asymmetry in Chinese stock market.In the last two Chapters, after reviewing the practice process of all share floating reform, the dissertation compares among the design programmes of exploring all share floating reform for achieving some important enlightenment. Based on these analyses, this dissertation puts forward a new synthetical reform design about solving the investment benefit asymmetry in Chinese stock market.更多还原