【作者】 沈玉志；

【导师】 段克信；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 采矿工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类赖以生存、经济发展和社会进步的重要基础资源，是关系到国家经济命脉和国家安全的重要战略物资，是社会经济可持续发展的重要基础，在现代化建设中具有举足轻重的地位。本文在对能源背景研究和理论研究现状分析的基础上，对我国能源运行规律进行了实证研究，根据其运行特征预测了能源消费总量，系统地分析了影响能源生产与消费结构的诸因素，构建了能源发展的多目标决策与系统动力学模型，并依此提出我国能源发展的政策建议。 1．系统分析了我国能源的赋存、生产与消费特征。在我国一次能源消费结构中煤炭居于主导地位，占到67％左右，石油所占比重低于25％，天然气为2.7％。虽然近些年来加快了水电及核电开发步伐，但分别仅占5.6％和0.6％，与世界能源消费结构相比有十分明显差别。 2．分析了经济结构及波动、产业结构变动、技术进步、进出口贸易及国际市场、环境政策等因素对我国能源需求的影响。在能源生产与需求分析的基础上，分别用国内生产总值、弹性系数、人均能耗、神经网络和系统动力学方法进行了能源需求总量预测。经对比分析，神经网络时间序列模型不适于能源的中长期预测，其它模型预测的能源需求总量其结果与趋势吻合，相互验证了模型的有效性。 3．构造了具有分析能源生产与消费结构功能的多目标决策模型和系统动力学决策模型。首先，系统地分析了影响我国能源供给与需求结构的因素，在决策模型中分别建立了供需平衡、经济波动与产业结构升级、生产能力约束、技术进步与政策、能源国际贸易与能源安全、可持续发展等模块。模型既能用于能源宏观规划，又可以对能源的生产与消费结构进行优化。 4．研究了能源供给与消费结构。至2015年我国的能源生产总量将稳步增长，在能源供给结构中，煤炭所占比例基本保持在70％左右，与2001年相比需增加8-9亿吨；赋存和生产力布局决定了石油的供给能力有限，至2015年产量达到1.8亿吨，比重下降到13％；天然气所占比例由3％提高到8％；水电、核电、太阳能、风能和其它新能源大约在9％～10％之间。辽宁工程技术大学博士论文 煤炭需求仍占能源消费的的55%以上，特别是电力用煤将有很大提高，将由目前的56%左右提高到2015年的约75%;石油需求大约由目前的2.5亿吨增长到2015年的4亿吨左右，其比重也将由24%提高到30%，天然气将由3.2%增长到10%左右，水电、核电等其它能源消费比重不断上升。 至2015年能源生产和需求分别为19一21亿tce、22一24亿tce，其增长速度分别为4%、5%;由于我国能源结构的固有矛盾，能源缺口2一3亿tce，电力装机容量需增加2.1亿千瓦左右。 5.分析了能源对环境的影响。主要大气污染物是燃煤排放的502、C02和烟尘，502排放量取决于煤炭的洗选率，按照环境保护与清洁能源的要求，2005、2010、2015年洗煤率分别达到25%、35%、40%的洗煤指标时，50:削减40%。C02的排放增速很快，严重影响环境并使气候变暖，应采取措施加以严格控制。 6.分析了能源对外依存度，说明了我国石油的严峻供给形势。随着汽车工业和交通运输业的迅速发展，石油需求逐年增加，在2013年前后石油依存度超过50%，在2010、2015年石油缺口分别为1.4亿吨和2.2亿吨，石油安全形势十分严峻。因此，必须优化进口途径，保障石油安全供应，同时应积极采取有效措施，加快煤炭转化的技术与经济研究。 7.成立国家能源管理部门，建立能源有效运行机制。积极发展坑口电站，形成煤电联营新机制，变输煤为送电，提高能源转化效率;实施严格市场准入制度，协调能源内部矛盾，优化能源的供需结构;并通过制定产业政策，优化能源的市场结构，规范能源市场竞争行为，提高能源绩效，实现对能源企业富有效率的宏观调控。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is important basic natural resource of human existence, economic development, and society progress. It’s important strategic material, which is related to economic lifeline and safety of a country. It’s also the important basis of sustainable development of society economy. It plays an important role in the structure of modernization. This thesis makes research on the regularity of energy in our country on the basis of background and theory research and analysis of present conditions. According to its motion features it forecasts consumption volume of energy and analyses several elements related to energy production and consumption structure and makes some policy suggestions of energy development of our country.1. It analyses energy storage, production and consumption feature of our country systematically. Coal plays a leading role in the energy consumption structure of our country, about 67%. Petroleum below 25%, natural gas 2.7%, hydroelectric 5.6%, nuclear electric 0.6%, which has obvious differences compared with energy consumption structure of the world.2. It analyses the influence of economic structure, industrial structure change, and technology progress, import and export trade, international market, environment policy on the need of energy in our country. It forecasts energy need on the basis of energy production and need analysis by way of GDP, flexible index, average consumption and systematic dynamincs. According to the compared analysis neural net time series are not fit for middle and long forecast of energy, which proves the validity of the model to be true.3. It makes strategic model of multi-goal system dynamics. First, it analyses energy supply and need structure. The model can be used not only for energy macroscopic plan, but also for optimization of energy production and consumption structure.4. It makes research on energy supply and consumption structure. By the end of 2015 energy production volume will increase gradually. In the energy supply structure coal makes up 70%. Compared with 2001 it should increase 0.8 to 0.9 billion. Owing to the limitation of petroleum of supply energy, by 2015 the production volume will reach 0.18 billion, to 13%. Natural gas increases from 3% to 8%. Hydroelectric, nuclear electric, solar energy and other energy recourses make up around 9% to 10%.Coal makes up above 55% of energy consumption, especially coal for electric will increase greatly, from 56% at present to about 75% 2015. Petroleum increases from 0.25 billion at present to 0.4 billion 2015, the rate from 24% to 30%. Natural gas will increase from 3.2% to 10%. The rate of hydroelectric and nuclear electric and other energy consumption will increase gradually.By the end of 2015, energy production and need are 1.9 billion to 2.1 billion tee and 2.2 billion to 2.4 billion tee respectively. Owing to the basic contradiction, energy gap will reach 0.2 billion to 0.3 billion tee. Electric storage will increase about 0.21 billion kilowatt.5. It analyses the influences of energy on environment. The main pollutant is SO2,CO2, and dust. According to the demand of environment protection and energy cleaning. Coal cleaning rate will reach 25%, 35% and 40% respectively by 2005, 2010 and 2015. SO2 will deduce 40%. The draining off of CO2 increase rapidly. It makes climate become warm, so it should take some measures to control restrict.6. It analyses the energy dependence on the import and indicates strict supply circumstances. Along with the rapid development of auto industry and transportation industry, petroleum needs increases gradually. The petroleum dependence rate is above 50%. Petroleum safety circumstances is very strict, so import channel should be optimal to secure the safety of petroleum supply and effective measure should be taken to speed the research on coal transforming and economic development.7. Energy management department should be established to build effective motion mechanism. Our country should develop electric station to form new coal electricity mechanism and increase更多还原