【作者】 叶春辉；

【导师】 钟甫宁；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 中国拥有960万平方公里的陆地面积，各地在气候、地理、土壤等方面有着巨大的差异。部分由于各地资源禀赋的差异、部分由于经济发展水平的不同，在中国长期发展中各地出现了不同的作物种植系统和农业生产技术。和其他部门一样，这些差异使得中国的种植业生产具有不同的地区比较优势。 长期实行的计划经济体制、政府的不当行政干预、基础设施的供给不足时的中国的种植业生产没有完全按照比较优势状况进行布局。按照比较优势状况安排各地农业生产能够提高各地资源配置的效率。 本论文主要目的是在全面测定中国主要农产品生产层面上潜在的比较优势、生产资源配置效率及生产受保护程度等状况及各省市间的地区差异的基础上，根据不同的条件(资源约束条件、政治约束条件、宏观经济政策条件)，通过生产结构调整的动态模拟，以农业生产者的收入最大化为目标，在综合分析既定时期国际市场农产品的贸易和中国农产品的贸易、生产状况以及各地区农产品相对比较优势状况的基础上，按照比较优势原则给出全国农业生产地区布局调整方案和各地区生产结构调整方案，并通过实证分析寻找有效的经济和政策手段进而制定相应的政策调整方案及配套政策。 本论文以现有播种面积为决策变量，运用上述农业生产结构调整政策分析系统动态模拟以下方案： 方案一，国际价格不变； 方案二，国际价格上升10％； 方案三，国际价格下降10％； 方案四，劳动密集型农产品国际价格上升10％，土地密集型农产品国际价格下降10％。 模拟的主要结果如下： 1．农民来自于种植业的净收入增长5.6％到7.55％； 2．粮食和油料作物的平均成本下降10％左右；棉花和糖料成本下降5％到10％； 3．粮食作物播种面积减少1.15％，经济作物播种面积增加3.38％，粮食产量减少3.6％。 本论文的研究表明，尽管我国因耕地资源匮乏，人均耕地少而在粮食作物等耕地密集型的农产品生产上缺乏比较优势，并且比较优势还在进一步下降，但我国农业在某些方面尤其是劳动密集型的经济作物的生产上具有明显的比较优势.另一方面，由于巨大的地区差别，总体上不具备比较优势的产品在某些地区仍然表现出明显的比较优势.比较优势的品种差异和地区差异为中国通过国际分工和贸易获得更多经济福利提供了良好的机会.更重要的是，进一步依照地区农业生产比较优势格局调整农业生产结构，可以提高农业资源配i效率，提高农民收入，降低全国水平上的农业生产成本. 本论文的结论将有助于为我国在新的国际经济环境下保障粮食安全，调整农业结构，发挥农业比较优势，充分利用国内外两个市场、两种资源，提高农业比较利益提供科学决策依据.研究成果不仅可以帮助府有关部门的决策者理解如何以及在多大程度上可以调整政策以提高资源配五的效率，也可以帮助农民了解自己拥有的潜在比较优势，以及当市场条件允许时如何调整自己的生产结构以增加收入.在中国面临加入世贸组织并在更大范围内开放农产品市场的新形势面前，本研究的成果还可以帮助有关各方更好地认识中国粮食生产的地区比较优势将如何影响中国和世界粮食生产、流通的格局.更多还原

【Abstract】 With 9.6 million km2 of total land area, China is a big country and exhibits significant regional differences in climate, topography, soil and so on. Partly due to such differences in natural resource endowments and partly due to differences in the level of economic development, various cropping systems and production techniques have been developed in the grain sector across China during her long history. Those differences constitute the bases of regional comparative advantages in grain production, as well as in other sectors.China’s long history of centrally planned control over grain production, improper government intervention, and underdeveloped marketing infrastructure are responsible for China’s inability to fully realize regional comparative advantage in grain production. The potential for improving resource allocation efficiency based on regional comparative advantage is significant.This dissertation is a pioneer research to model the structure adjustment of China’ s main crop production based on potential regional comparative advantage with direct production indicators. Firstly, our research measures the potential comparative advantage in crop production using Ratio of Regional Domestic Cost (RDRCC). Then contemplating constrains of resource limitation, political considerations, macro economical situations, our research use dynamic programming to model the he structure adjustment of China’ s main crop production. Aiming at maximizing farmers’ income, analyzing situation of crop production, trading at home and abroad and regional comparative advantage, we get direction and range of structure adjustment in China’s crop production. Finally we try to raise suggestions on policy reform to facilitate structure adjustment.The dissertation using sown area as decision variable, model different conditions as following:1. International price doesn’ t change,2. International price increases 10 percent,3. International price decreases 10 percent, and4. International price of labor-intensive products increases 10 percent; International price of land intensive products decreases 10 percent.The main result of the modeling is showing as follows:1. Farmers’ net income of crop production increases from 5.6% to 7. 55% after adjustment,2. The production cost of grain and oil crops decrease 10%, cost of cotton and sugar crop decrease from 5 percent to 10 percent,3. The sown area of grain decreases 1.15% while sown area of cash crops increase 3. 38% and total grain production decreases 3. 6%.The results reveals that although the production of land intensive products such as grain lacks comparative advantage, labor-intensive products such as cash crops shows strong comparative advantage. On the other hand, some agricultural products don’ t have comparative advantage in national level, but in some region they show strong comparative advantage. Even though all products in one region haven’ t any absolute advantage, they can gain by focusing on products with comparative advantage and trading with others. The difference between crops and regions provides good opportunities for China to carry out structure adjustment and trading, and to gain more benefits. Furthermore, structure adjustment according to comparative advantage can improve resource allocation efficiency, increase farmers’ income and decrease production cost in national level.This dissertation will help to the establishment of policy to strength food security, facilitating structure adjustment, enhancing resource usage efficiency according to comparative advantage. The result will help central and local government to understand how to and in what extent can they improve resource allocation efficiency using indirect policy. The result also will help farmers to find their production potential, and how to carry our structure adjustment to maximize their income whenever market permits. After China’ s acceding to the WTO, Chinais facing new challenge to open domestic market. Our research will help to understand in which way can comparative adva更多还原