城市住宅的特征价格：理论分析与实证研究

【作者】 温海珍；

【导师】 贾生华；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 企业管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国城镇住宅市场的形成，城市住宅价格问题成为房地产学术界和实务界关注的焦点之一。由于住宅产品是一种异质性商品，产品之间在构成使用价值的各个特征之间有明显的差异，国外往往从特征价格(hedonic price)的视角出发构建模型进行研究。而国内学者对住宅价格问题，大多数从住宅市场的供求关系、住宅价格的构成、住宅政策等方面出发进行定性研究，以城市区域为研究对象的住宅价格实证研究不多。从20世纪60年代开始，国外广泛地采用特征价格理论和模型研究房地产市场，进行了大量的实证研究，并获得了丰硕的成果。到目前为止，由于特征价格模型的建立需要收集大量的数据和进行较为广泛的调查，国内还没有人通过对住宅购买者在区位条件、建筑结构、邻里环境等方面的偏好进行调查，实证研究住宅特征和住宅价格之间的数量关系。如何把特征价格理论应用于我国的住宅价格分析，构建住宅特征价格模型研究城市的住宅市场，这正是本文试图解决的问题。 论文第二章较为系统地总结了特征价格理论和模型的研究动态。1922年Hass首先使用“hedonic”的概念，并逐渐得到学者的认可，1966年Lancaster从消费者选择的角度出发，1976年Rosen从需求和供应双方对特征的市场均衡出发展开分析，奠定了构建特征价格模型的理论基础。以时间和研究内容作为分析维度，笔者发现特征价格模型的发展可以划分为四个阶段：萌芽期、休眠期、完善期和广泛应用期。文献同时表明，特征价格理论主要包括两方面内容，即Lancaster偏好理论和Rosen的特征市场均衡分析。Lancaster偏好理论认为，住宅产品的异质性，使得住宅本身所拥有的一系列特征成为影响效用的主要因素。在市场交易中，住宅是作为内在特征的集合来出售的，每个住宅特征对应一个隐含市场，整个住宅市场可以理解为由多个隐含市场构成。住宅价格将由于内在特征的不同而不同，一套住宅的价格是其所包含特征的隐含价格之和。在市场完全竞争的条件下，以消费者效用最大化和生产者利润最大化作为目标，Rosen从理论上分析了异质产品市场的短期均衡和长期均衡，为特征价格理论的建模、特征价格函数的估计奠定了基础。在此基础上，我们从计量经济学角度讨论了模型的设定和估计问题，从价格指数的编制、对传统城市经济模型的改进、推断特征的隐含价格和市场需求、对房地产和非市场物品的价值评估、公共政策效果评价等五个方面对特征价格模型众多的实证研究和应用进行了综述。这些文献研究工作，不仅从理论分析上证明了特征价格模型在住宅市场分析中的可行性，而且从实证研究上提供了方法和宝贵的建模经验。浙江大学博士学位论文 论文第三章构建了住宅特征价格的理论模型。对模型变量选择的文献回顾表明，住宅的特征主要分为建筑特征、邻里特征、区位特征三大类。沿用这种分析框架，结合杭州市的实际情况，笔者与杭州市15家单位21位专业人士进行了深入访谈，并对杭州市西湖区的住宅市场进行了试调查，采用239个住宅样本初步验证了特征价格模型的可行性，最后选择了18个住宅特征作为模型的自变量。其中:建筑特征变量7个，为建筑面积、住宅年价、朝向状态、装修程度、所在核层、有无车位、有无阁接;邻里特征变量7个，为自然环境、小区环境、物业甘理、文体设施、生活配套、教育配套、邻近大学;区位特征变量3个，为CBD距离、西湖距离、交通条件;其它特征变量1个，为时间因众。此外，房间效目、生活设施和治安环境三个住宅特征变量作为备择变量。在此基础上，对实证研究中可能采用的线性和对数等函数形式、模型的估计方法进行了分析和阐述。 论文第四章论述了研究数据的获取和量化方法。本文以杭州市主城区内的上城区、下城区、西湖区、拱墅区、江干区等5个行政区为研究区域，研究数据的来源主要分为四类:住宅出售挂牌数据、住宅成交价格数据、住宅小区调查数据以及基于Gis的杭州市电子地图数据。笔者对研究区域内的290个住宅小区进行了实地调查，从房地产中介公司获得4063个住宅挂牌交易样本。通过对样本数据的检查和住宅小区调查资料的整合，得到有效样本2473个，时间跨度为2003年1月1日至2003年7月31日。最后，采用四种方式(实际观察数据、分等级赋值、综合评价打分、虚拟变量)对研究样本的相关变量进行了编码和量化。 论文第五章把杭州市住宅市场作为单一市场进行实证研究，通过基本模型和对数模型分别得到14个住宅特征的特征价格和15个住宅特征的边际价格。实证研究表明，住宅特征对住宅价格的影响程度是有差异的。按照影响程度从大到小排序，依次为建筑面积、西湖距离、小区环境、CBD距离、交通条件、有无车库、有无阁很、装修程度、自然环境、物业，理、所在换层、文体设旅、时间因众、邻近大学。在此基础上，对CBD距离和西湖距离两个区位特征变量进行了更为详细的研究。研究发现，无论是采用直线距离还是实际距离来衡量CBD距离，模型的基本参数、回归系数等均无较大差异，两种测度方法基本上具有同样的效果，采用实际距离的测度方法并没有使得住宅特征价格模型的拟?更多还原

【Abstract】 With the forming of the urban housing market in China, the housing price question becomes one of the focuses that the academia and operation circle of real estate pay close attention to. Because the housing product is a kind of heterogeneity goods, and has obvious differences between the housing characteristics, which compose using value of the products, foreign scholars often structure models to study from the aspect of the hedonic price. But domestic scholars mainly carry on qualitative study from the supply-demand relationship, the composition of the housing price, housing policy etc. There is few experiential research of housing price that take urban area as research object. Since the sixties of the 20th century, the hedonic price theory and model has been widely adopted to study the real estates market abroad, and foreign scholars have carried out a large amount of experiential research. Up to now, because the setting-up of the hedonic price model needs to collect a large amount of data and carry on the extensive investigation, nobody process experiential research to study the quantitative relation between the housing characteristic and housing price at home through investigating buyer’s partiality in location condition, building structure, neighborhood environment etc. How to apply the hedonic price theory to analyze the housing price of our country, Structure the housing hedonic price model and study the urban housing market, that is exactly the problem that this dissertation attempts to solved.In chapter two the thesis has systematically summarized the research dynamics of the hedonic price theory and model. Mass first used the concept of "hedonic" in 1922, and received the scholar’s approval gradually. Lancaster got going from the aspect of consumer selection in 1966, Rosen analyzed the characteristic market equilibrium from both sides of the demand and the supply in 1976, and they established the theoretical foundation of the hedonic price model. Taking the time and research content as the analyzing dimensionality, the author finds that the development of the hedonic price model can be divided into four stages: sprout period, silence period, perfecting period and widely using period. At the same time, literatures indicate the hedonic price theory mainly includes two content, namely Lancaster’s partiality theory and Rosen ’s characteristic market equilibrium analysis. Lancaster theory indicates that the heterogeneity of housing makes housing characteristics become the main factors of influencing housing utility, and housing is sold as the assembling ofinherent characteristic on the housing marketing. Each housing characteristic has corresponding one implicit market, and these implicit markets constitute the whole housing market. In the real market, the transaction price is the sum of its’ implicit price, it will be different because of the difference of the internal characteristic and the quantity. Under the condition of market perfect competition, and taking maximizing consumer’s utility and producer’s profit as the goal, Rosen analyzed theoretically long-time and short-time equilibriums of the heterogeneous product market, that established the foundation for the design of hedonic price modeling. On the basis, we have discussed the question of settling and estimation of the hedonic price model from the econometrics angle, and reviews numerous experiential research and application of hedonic price model from five aspects: establishing price index, improving traditional urban economy models, inferring implicit hedonic price and the market demand of characteristics, evaluating the values of real estate or non-market goods, and appraising public policy. The literature study, not only proves the feasibility of the hedonic price model in housing market analysis from the theory, but also offers the method and valuable modeling experience from experiential research.In chapter three the thesis structures the theoretic model of the housing hedonic price. The reviews of how to selecting characteris更多还原