【作者】 李如忠；

【导师】 王超；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 环境工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 基于水环境系统具有的不确定性、不完整性特征，运用不确定性数学的理论方法对河流水质调控领域中的水质评价、水质预测、水环境容量计算、污染负荷分配、水质风险评价等问题作了较深入的理论分析和应用研究，全文共七章。内容提要如下： 第一章综述了水质评价、水质预测、水环境容量计算、污染负荷分配以及水质风险分析等问题的研究现状，并对存在的问题和可能的发展趋势作了扼要分析。第二章从水体质量与评价指标之间、评价指标与评价指标之间存在的灰色关联关系出发，将灰色系统理论与矢量投影原理相结合，建立了河流水质综合评价的灰色关联投影模型。第三章探讨了河流水质预测方法，针对水质实测资料较少、监测频率较低，且数据往往呈现一定波动性特征的事实，为提高中长期水质预测的精确性和可靠性，将灰色系统新陈代谢原理与GM(1,1)模型原理相结合，提出了水质预测的灰色动态模型群法。第四章根据现有水环境容量计算理论方法上的不足，从水环境系统多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的角度，根据盲数理论定义了河流水环境系统盲参数的概念，在此基础上，结合已有确定性水环境容量计算模型，通过模型参数盲数化，建立了盲信息下一般非感潮河流和河道型水库水环境容量计算模型。 在污染负荷分配问题的研究上，为提高污染物削减分配方案的可操作性，第五章从分配问题涉及的社会、经济、环境、技术和管理等角度出发，构建了一个包含大量定性与定量因子的多层次评价指标体系，设计了一条解决污染负荷分配问题的技术路线，提出了一种将层次分析原理(AHP法)和多人决策分析技术(Delphi法)相结合的区域污染负荷分配Delphi-AHP计算模式。 第六章分别从突发性和非突发性两个方面，探讨了河流水质超标风险问题。基于河流水环境系统具有的未确知性，以及多种不确定性共存或交叉存在的理论思想，定义了河流水质未确知风险概念，并由盲数可靠性原理建立了水质超标可信度计算模型。在突发性风险问题的研究上，通过将瞬时排放情形下水质模型参数定义为未确知数，建立了描述污染物迁移、扩散和转化规律的河流水质未确知模拟模型。根据该模型得到污染源排放口下游控制断面(或控制点)污染物浓度的各种可能取值区间及其相应可信度分布，由此可以度量制断面(或控制点)水质超标风险。对于非突发性风险问题，通过分析、整理排污负荷资料和水体环境容量信息，评价相应河段水质风险。实例研究表明了其科学性、合理性和可行性。 第七章对上述工作进行了总结，并展望了进一步的研究课题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the uncertain and incomplete characteristics of water environmental system, this thesis studies systematically problems in such areas of river water environmental system as follows: water quality assessment, water quality forecast, calculation of water environmental capacity, allocation of wastewater loads, and risk analysis of water quality exceeding a certain standard, and so on, by means of uncertain mathematics theories.The thesis begins with an introductory chapter in which the background and meaning of the research are stated, and the state-of-the-arts are reviewed. From the angle of grey relationship existing in water quality and evaluation indexes, and in evaluation indexes inside, Chapter 2 proposes a grey relation projection model for the comprehensive assessment of water quality by integrating grey system theory with the vector projection. Chapter 3 explores a forecast method for water quality. In view of the shortage of water quality information, this chapter puts forward the grey dynamic model group made up of several simple grey models to forecast the trend of river water quality, by combining the principle of the new superseding the old in grey system theory with the GM (1,1) model. Based on the deficiency of research of water environmental capacity in theory and calculation method, Chapter 4 studies the issue from the angle of the coexistence of some kinds of uncertainties, and defines the concept of blind parameters in water environmental system. On the basis of it, this chapter establishes a model with blind parameters for calculation of water environmental capacity.In order to improve the operability of allocation scheme of wastewater loads, Chapter 5 structures a multi-play evaluation index system with many quantitative and qualitative factors, which involves such fields as society, economics, environment, technology,management, and so on. In addition, Chapter 5 designs a technical route to the allocation of wastewater loads, and presents a Delphi-AHP model to determine the proportion of allocation among relative cells, by combining Satty’s Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Delphi method.Chapter 6 deals with the water quality risk. Based on unascertained characteristic of water environmental system, and the thought of several uncertainties coexisting in the water environmental system, Chapter 6 defines the concept of unascertained riskof river water quality, and establishes an unascertained model to measure the risk according to the principle of blind number reliability. For the sudden risk, Chapter 6 develops an unascertained simulation model of water quality by treating parameters of the water quality model as unascertained numbers. From the river water quality model established here, not only the possible pollutant concentration intervals but also their corresponding faith degree can be obtained. According to the calculation results, the faith degree of the sudden risk can be evaluated. For the non-sudden one, the water quality risk can be assessed using the unascertained risk model provided upward, by analyizing the information of pollutant discharged and river water environmental capacity.In the end (Chapter 7), conclusions of the thesis are given.更多还原