【作者】 赵黎明；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 本文以社会、经济、生态的可持续发展为目标研究灾害管理系统。论文以灾害为研究对象、以灾害经济理论和灾害文化理论为基础，以灾害保障理论和灾害行为理论为支点，以灾害管理方法为手段，研究现代灾害管理问题，构建了现代灾害管理理论框架。论文在理论研究的基础上，深入剖析了灾害管理系统内部要素之间复杂的相互作用关系，研究了该系统的动力机制，建立了减灾系统详细动力学模型，为灾害管理系统的结构优化提供了重要的支持。论文从进化的角度出发，构建了灾害管理系统的演化模型，探讨了灾害管理微观主体根据自身周围情况变化，不断改进自身的行为库和知识库，组成相互分工与协作的自组织系统，完成灾害管理任务。论文对灾害管理系统结构体制和运行体制设计的的内容、方法和程序进行了研究，探讨了灾害管理系统设计中的系统流程问题、流程描述的主要建模方法等，提出了灾害管理系统流程诊断、设计框架。本论文的创新点为：构建了现代灾害管理理论的框架，建立了新的灾害管理理论体系；在深入探讨灾害管理系统演化研究理论的基础上，提出了基于主体的灾害管理演化建模方法，构建了灾害管理系统演化的理论框架、微观主体模型、多主体模型；深入剖析了灾害管理系统及其子系统的动力机制，建立了减灾系统动力学模型；论文研究并初步建立了灾害管理系统设计方法论体系，探讨了灾害管理系统的结构体制设计、运行体制设计和流程设计的方法。论文的研究内容是目前该领域研究的中心问题，内容之间具有紧密的逻辑关系，具有较为完整的研究内容体系。论文提出的解决相应问题的理论、思想、方法，具有很强的可操作性。论文为灾害管理系统建设奠定了重要的基础，具有重要的理论和实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper deals with risk management system with a target on social, economic and ecological continual development. Based on the risk economy theory and risk culture theory, supported by risk guarantee theory and risk behavior theory, and aided by the means of risk management method, this paper studies present-day risk management problem and sets up its theory framework. It also thoroughly analyzes the complex interactions among the inner elements of risk management system, studies its dynamic mechanism, and sets up the detailed dynamic system model of risk-decrease system, which provides substantial support for the structural optimization of risk management system. This paper sets up the evolvement model of risk management system from the perspective of evolution, and illustrates, in a quantitative way, how cognitive structure, logistic discursion, information receive and diffuse behavior of risk management micro-agent influence the risk management system, which provides the research framework and practical instrument for the computer simulation of risk management system. Then, the paper studies the content, method and process of the structure system and operation system of risk management system design, and discusses the system process problem, major modeling method of process description in risk management system design. At last, it brings forward the process diagnose and design framework of risk management system. The innovation points of this paper are: constructing the framework of present-day risk management theory, setting up a new risk management theory system, bringing forward the agent-based risk management evolving modeling method on the basis of thorough analysis of risk management evolvement theory, establishing the theory framework of risk management system evolvement, micro-agent, macro-agent and multi-agents model; dissecting the dynamic mechanism of risk management system and its subsystem, and developing the dynamic model of risk-decrease system. The paper researches and fundamentally builds the methodology system of risk management system design, and discusses the structure mechanism, operation mechanism and process design method of risk management system. This paper focuses on the core problem of this field. It has close logic interrelation and relatively complete research aim and system. The theory, idea and method for settling the corresponding problems has great maneuverability. The research establishes the important basis for the risk management system and has important theoretical and practical value.更多还原