【作者】 毛寨汉；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 施工导流是水利水电工程建设中的重要环节，而施工导流方案的选择内容复杂、涉及面广；本文围绕施工导流方案决策原理和方法进行了系统深入的研究，取得了以下研究成果：首先依据施工导流工程的特点，采用系统工程的分析理论和方法，根据风险分析目标，确立风险分析环境，从而建立施工导流系统概念和施工导流系统风险概念；针对导流工程的复杂性、动态性，提出施工导流串联模式系统概念。同时，对施工导流系统中的不确定性因素展开了分析，特别提出挡水建筑物挡水高程（施工高程）的不确定性对于系统风险的显著影响，并对该指标的随机特性进行了分析。在以上工作的基础上，定义出施工导流系统各模式下的风险率模型和施工导流系统综合风险率模型。提出了一种施工导流风险率的仿真计算方法，该方法采用离散仿真方法模拟获得挡水建筑物施工高程分布情况，采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法获得洪水水位分布情况，综合两者从而确定施工导流系统风险率情况。在随机因素的模拟中，洪水过程随机性模拟采用了季节性一阶自回归模型实现；首次提出采用ANN技术建立神经网络模型模拟泄流能力，实现了对明流、有压流和过渡流态自适应模拟计算。工程算例验证了该方法的可行性。提出了施工导流方案多目标群体决策方法。该方法以专家调查法和改进层次分析方法为技术手段，充分考虑到收敛决策者思维空间，帮助决策者明确决策目标的要求。工程算例表明该方法简便易行，具有工程应用价值。融合DSS理论和科学计算可视化理论，提出了可视化辅助决策概念及施工导流方案可视化辅助决策支持系统技术；并采用地理信息系统(GIS)为平台，结合VB和OpenGl技术，以某特大型水电工程为背景，建立了施工导流方案可视化辅助决策支持系统（CDVASS），在计算机上实现了地形、地质、建筑物等工程信息的三维可视化；在此基础上，对施工导流方案动态信息的可视化仿真和工程信息的分析方法等进行了深入研究。提出了采用相对暴露度和倾斜角两个指标描述起伏床面影响下的截流抛投块石的稳定形态；对相对暴露度和倾斜角的随机特性进行了分析；并建立截流抛投块石抗倾覆稳定模型，采用随机模拟方法分析稳定率与龙口流速和块石粒径之间的关系。该成果为分析截流抛投块石的稳定提供了一种新的途径。 <WP=4>分析了施工截流系统风险发生的方式和机理；建立了深水高流速截流环境下的截流风险率模型，并对模型求解方法进行了研究。结合工程实例验证了该方法的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction diversion is one of the most important processes in hydraulic engineering. It is difficult for people to select the best one, because it is influenced by a great deal of factors, such as technical, economical, safe, social problems. To support decision-making, the construction diversion hereinafter is studied in this paper.In the first chapter, the correlative research results are summarized, and the techniques including GIS (Geographic Information System), DSS (Decision Support System), VISC (Visualization in Scientific Computing), ANN (Artificial Neural Network), Simulation technique, which will be used in this paper, are introduced. Then, the questions are introduced, and the works that will be done in this paper are listed.In chapter 2, the construction diversion system concept and the system risk concept are defined basing on the Systems Engineering principle. The construction diversion tandem system, which is fit for describing the complexity and dynamic of system, is established. Then, the uncertainty factors of construction diversion system are concluded in detail. In particular, it is pointed out that construction altitude is an important variable to study. Lastly, the risk model of construction diversion tandem system and the synthetic risk model of construction diversion system are set up.In chapter 3, a simulation method to calculate the system risk is introduced, which is synthesis of the M-C (Monte-Carlo) method and the disperse system simulation method. The AR (Autoregressive) model to simulate the flood process, and the ANN model to simulate the flux faculty of the water diversion tunnel are used. An example that shows this method is available.The decision making of the construction diversion scheme is a complex problem, which is relating to economy, technology, and safety. So in charter 4, with the help of the expert investigation method and IAHP (Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process), a multi-criteria group decision-making method is introduced, which makes it easy to make decision in the construction diversion scheme. An example given proves that the method present in the paper is feasible. To help the managers to recognize the decision object, VADSS (Visualization Assistant Decision Support System) is defined. It is different form ordinary DSS in the way of the information expression. To use it in the construction diversion, a CDVADSS (Construction Diversion Visualization Assistant Decision Support System) is set up. Its functions include visual information of geography, geology and <WP=6>construction and the visual analysis method of dynamic information. It works for the engineering.In chapter 6, the grazing boundary of riprap and riverbed is analyzed. The opposite expose level and the inclination amount are introduced to describe the physical character of riprap. Then, a stability model is established according to the mechanism of the riprap lost stability. And the stability of one closure engineering is calculated with the support of the stochastic simulation method. The relationship of the stability and the flow rate and grain size is summarized.In chapter 7, the closure risk mechanism is analyzed, and a closure risk model is worked out. The calculation method is analyzed with the help of an engineering example.更多还原